Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 22, 2026, show exceptional (D4) drought covering 1.8% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in parts of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi River Basin, and Southeast where hot, dry conditions under high pressure have driven degradations and flash drought intensification. Improvements occurred across the West and northern Plains from beneficial rainfall, while developing El Niño conditions are expected to favor above-normal precipitation in the southern tier later in fall. The next weekly map, incorporating observations through early the following week, will determine D4 presence by state for the September 29 period; traders should monitor updated National Weather Service forecasts and soil moisture percentiles for rapid shifts ahead of resolution.