Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 82%
1st hottest 13%
4th or lower 6.6%
3rd hottest 5.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
13%
2nd hottest
86%
3rd hottest
6%
4th or lower
7%
2nd hottest 82%
1st hottest 13%
4th or lower 6.6%
3rd hottest 5.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$349 Обс.
13%
2nd hottest
$1 Обс.
86%
3rd hottest
$191 Обс.
6%
4th or lower
$250 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$791Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$791Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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