**No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 so far**, with the strongest events limited to Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and another Mw 7.8 in Indonesia in August, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations of official data. This positions the 7.9-or-below outcome at 74.5% implied probability, consistent with global averages of roughly one M8+ event per year alongside variability in timing and clustering. Higher bins (8.2+) carry low odds because M8.5+ quakes are far rarer, typically occurring less than once annually on average, and no foreshock sequences or model runs currently signal imminent great earthquakes in high-risk subduction zones. With under four months remaining, trader consensus reflects the modest near-term likelihood of crossing the 8.0 threshold absent new large ruptures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 9%
8.2 – 8.3 4.9%
8.6 – 8.7 4.5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
75%
8.0 – 8.1
9%
8.2 – 8.3
5%
8.4 – 8.5
3%
8.6 – 8.7
5%
8.8 – 8.9
1%
9.0 or above
3%
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 9%
8.2 – 8.3 4.9%
8.6 – 8.7 4.5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$2,353 Обс.
75%
8.0 – 8.1
$562 Обс.
9%
8.2 – 8.3
$331 Обс.
5%
8.4 – 8.5
$201 Обс.
3%
8.6 – 8.7
$306 Обс.
5%
8.8 – 8.9
$203 Обс.
1%
9.0 or above
$156 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 so far**, with the strongest events limited to Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and another Mw 7.8 in Indonesia in August, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations of official data. This positions the 7.9-or-below outcome at 74.5% implied probability, consistent with global averages of roughly one M8+ event per year alongside variability in timing and clustering. Higher bins (8.2+) carry low odds because M8.5+ quakes are far rarer, typically occurring less than once annually on average, and no foreshock sequences or model runs currently signal imminent great earthquakes in high-risk subduction zones. With under four months remaining, trader consensus reflects the modest near-term likelihood of crossing the 8.0 threshold absent new large ruptures.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,111Дата завершення
Jan 4, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 so far**, with the strongest events limited to Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and another Mw 7.8 in Indonesia in August, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations of official data. This positions the 7.9-or-below outcome at 74.5% implied probability, consistent with global averages of roughly one M8+ event per year alongside variability in timing and clustering. Higher bins (8.2+) carry low odds because M8.5+ quakes are far rarer, typically occurring less than once annually on average, and no foreshock sequences or model runs currently signal imminent great earthquakes in high-risk subduction zones. With under four months remaining, trader consensus reflects the modest near-term likelihood of crossing the 8.0 threshold absent new large ruptures.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Обсяг
$4,111Дата завершення
Jan 4, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 so far**, with the strongest events limited to Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and another Mw 7.8 in Indonesia in August, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations of official data. This positions the 7.9-or-below outcome at 74.5% implied probability, consistent with global averages of roughly one M8+ event per year alongside variability in timing and clustering. Higher bins (8.2+) carry low odds because M8.5+ quakes are far rarer, typically occurring less than once annually on average, and no foreshock sequences or model runs currently signal imminent great earthquakes in high-risk subduction zones. With under four months remaining, trader consensus reflects the modest near-term likelihood of crossing the 8.0 threshold absent new large ruptures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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