Traders assign a 95% probability against Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027 due to extensive damage from Israeli strikes in June 2025 and subsequent US and Israeli operations in early 2026, which rendered major enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and trapped substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium underground. IAEA verification remains restricted at key sites, while Iran has not resumed large-scale centrifuge operations or uranium enrichment under the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Satellite imagery shows ongoing construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, yet Western assessments indicate no active weaponization program and a breakout timeline still measured in months if decisions shift. Remaining uncertainty centers on potential clandestine recovery of buried material or rapid restarts at surviving underground elements before the 2027 deadline.