The open-seat contest in Iowa’s 4th congressional district features Republican nominee Chris McGowan against Democrat Dave Dawson, with an independent write-in also on the ballot. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent double-digit GOP lean in recent cycles. Trader pricing shows broad consensus on a Republican hold but spreads probability across margin buckets because no new public polling has emerged since the June primaries and the absence of an incumbent creates uncertainty over the exact size of the victory. The low 1.4% implied probability on a Democratic win aligns with the district’s structural fundamentals and the limited campaign activity to date. Developments that could shift the distribution include late-cycle polling, turnout patterns in key northwestern Iowa counties, or any national political events that alter baseline Republican performance in the final weeks before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
IA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 15-20% 32%
Republican 5-10% 20.9%
Republican 20-25% 20%
Republican 25-30% 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 35%+
5%
Republican 30-35%
5%
Republican 25-30%
13%
Republican 20-25%
20%
Republican 15-20%
32%
Republican 10-15%
12%
Republican 5-10%
21%
Republican 0-5%
4%
Democrat Wins
2%
Republican 15-20% 32%
Republican 5-10% 20.9%
Republican 20-25% 20%
Republican 25-30% 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 35%+
$118 Обс.
5%
Republican 30-35%
$212 Обс.
5%
Republican 25-30%
$1,577 Обс.
13%
Republican 20-25%
$163 Обс.
20%
Republican 15-20%
$2,568 Обс.
32%
Republican 10-15%
$360 Обс.
12%
Republican 5-10%
$170 Обс.
21%
Republican 0-5%
$93 Обс.
4%
Democrat Wins
$96 Обс.
2%
The 2026 IA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open-seat contest in Iowa’s 4th congressional district features Republican nominee Chris McGowan against Democrat Dave Dawson, with an independent write-in also on the ballot. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent double-digit GOP lean in recent cycles. Trader pricing shows broad consensus on a Republican hold but spreads probability across margin buckets because no new public polling has emerged since the June primaries and the absence of an incumbent creates uncertainty over the exact size of the victory. The low 1.4% implied probability on a Democratic win aligns with the district’s structural fundamentals and the limited campaign activity to date. Developments that could shift the distribution include late-cycle polling, turnout patterns in key northwestern Iowa counties, or any national political events that alter baseline Republican performance in the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 IA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,357Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 4:45 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 IA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open-seat contest in Iowa’s 4th congressional district features Republican nominee Chris McGowan against Democrat Dave Dawson, with an independent write-in also on the ballot. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent double-digit GOP lean in recent cycles. Trader pricing shows broad consensus on a Republican hold but spreads probability across margin buckets because no new public polling has emerged since the June primaries and the absence of an incumbent creates uncertainty over the exact size of the victory. The low 1.4% implied probability on a Democratic win aligns with the district’s structural fundamentals and the limited campaign activity to date. Developments that could shift the distribution include late-cycle polling, turnout patterns in key northwestern Iowa counties, or any national political events that alter baseline Republican performance in the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 IA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$5,357Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 4:45 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The open-seat contest in Iowa’s 4th congressional district features Republican nominee Chris McGowan against Democrat Dave Dawson, with an independent write-in also on the ballot. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent double-digit GOP lean in recent cycles. Trader pricing shows broad consensus on a Republican hold but spreads probability across margin buckets because no new public polling has emerged since the June primaries and the absence of an incumbent creates uncertainty over the exact size of the victory. The low 1.4% implied probability on a Democratic win aligns with the district’s structural fundamentals and the limited campaign activity to date. Developments that could shift the distribution include late-cycle polling, turnout patterns in key northwestern Iowa counties, or any national political events that alter baseline Republican performance in the final weeks before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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