Strong October employment data, with nonfarm payrolls rising 165,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, has reinforced trader expectations for a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, evidenced by September CPI at 3.7%, continues to support a hawkish policy stance after the September increase that set the target range at 3.75%-4.00%. The October hold and recent jobs beat have shifted market-implied odds toward the hike outcome at 76.5%, while low probabilities for cuts or larger moves reflect limited downside risks in the near term. Key upcoming releases, including November CPI and additional labor indicators, will shape final positioning ahead of the dot-plot projections.
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