Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo ratings into the low 1500s, with Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the top spots near 1507 while GPT-6 Astra posted standout results in code and agentic benchmarks shortly after its early September launch. Traders are watching whether incremental gains from ongoing training runs, specialized variants, and efficiency improvements can add another 30–50 points by year-end amid tight clustering among frontier models. Key catalysts include potential follow-up drops from Google’s Gemini team, Meta, or Chinese labs like Alibaba and Moonshot before December, plus any major benchmark methodology shifts that could alter resolution criteria. Historical patterns show frontier scores advancing roughly 10–15 Elo per month during active release cycles, though timelines often slip.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
$183,205 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1520
95%
↑ 1530
40%
↑ 1540
20%
↑ 1550
15%
↑ 1600
5%
↑ 1650
5%
↑ 1700
3%
$183,205 Обс.
↑ 1520
$32,642 Обс.
95%
↑ 1530
$12,673 Обс.
40%
↑ 1540
$5,135 Обс.
20%
↑ 1550
$52,494 Обс.
15%
↑ 1600
$25,370 Обс.
5%
↑ 1650
$9,196 Обс.
5%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo ratings into the low 1500s, with Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the top spots near 1507 while GPT-6 Astra posted standout results in code and agentic benchmarks shortly after its early September launch. Traders are watching whether incremental gains from ongoing training runs, specialized variants, and efficiency improvements can add another 30–50 points by year-end amid tight clustering among frontier models. Key catalysts include potential follow-up drops from Google’s Gemini team, Meta, or Chinese labs like Alibaba and Moonshot before December, plus any major benchmark methodology shifts that could alter resolution criteria. Historical patterns show frontier scores advancing roughly 10–15 Elo per month during active release cycles, though timelines often slip.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$183,205Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo ratings into the low 1500s, with Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the top spots near 1507 while GPT-6 Astra posted standout results in code and agentic benchmarks shortly after its early September launch. Traders are watching whether incremental gains from ongoing training runs, specialized variants, and efficiency improvements can add another 30–50 points by year-end amid tight clustering among frontier models. Key catalysts include potential follow-up drops from Google’s Gemini team, Meta, or Chinese labs like Alibaba and Moonshot before December, plus any major benchmark methodology shifts that could alter resolution criteria. Historical patterns show frontier scores advancing roughly 10–15 Elo per month during active release cycles, though timelines often slip.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$183,205Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI have pushed Chatbot Arena Elo ratings into the low 1500s, with Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the top spots near 1507 while GPT-6 Astra posted standout results in code and agentic benchmarks shortly after its early September launch. Traders are watching whether incremental gains from ongoing training runs, specialized variants, and efficiency improvements can add another 30–50 points by year-end amid tight clustering among frontier models. Key catalysts include potential follow-up drops from Google’s Gemini team, Meta, or Chinese labs like Alibaba and Moonshot before December, plus any major benchmark methodology shifts that could alter resolution criteria. Historical patterns show frontier scores advancing roughly 10–15 Elo per month during active release cycles, though timelines often slip.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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