**Recent pre-election polling and exit polls have consistently placed the Grüne vote share in the 15–16% range, driving the strong market consensus around 14–17%.** Polls from institutes such as Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA in the final weeks before the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election showed the party at 15–16%, a modest decline from its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election. Exit polls released on election day from ARD and ZDF projected Grüne support at 15–15.5%, aligning closely with the prior survey trend and placing the party behind Die Linke and the CDU but competitive with the AfD for third place. These figures reflect a stable but slightly softened position amid a fragmented field where housing affordability and state government performance dominated voter priorities. The tight clustering of both polling averages and early results around the mid-15% level has produced the pronounced market concentration on the 14–17% outcome, with limited probability assigned to ranges outside this band. No major late-campaign developments appear to have shifted Grüne support significantly outside the established polling envelope.