Recent tariff adjustments and the unwind of 2025 import frontloading have tempered goods inflows while energy and commodity exports provide offsets, anchoring trader consensus around a 700–800 billion full-year deficit at 37.5% implied probability versus 28% for 800–900 billion. July’s $88.6 billion monthly gap—widened from June’s $71–73 billion—reflects rising capital-goods imports tied to AI infrastructure alongside softer exports, pushing the trailing twelve-month total to $744 billion. A resilient U.S. economy and dollar strength continue to support import demand, yet services surpluses and policy-driven shifts in sourcing keep the outcome contested. August data due October 6 and Q4 volatility remain key swing factors for year-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$24,682 Vol.
$24,682 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
39%
800–900B
29%
900B–1T
13%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
3%
$24,682 Vol.
$24,682 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$715 Vol.
39%
800–900B
$1,830 Vol.
29%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
13%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,205 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff adjustments and the unwind of 2025 import frontloading have tempered goods inflows while energy and commodity exports provide offsets, anchoring trader consensus around a 700–800 billion full-year deficit at 37.5% implied probability versus 28% for 800–900 billion. July’s $88.6 billion monthly gap—widened from June’s $71–73 billion—reflects rising capital-goods imports tied to AI infrastructure alongside softer exports, pushing the trailing twelve-month total to $744 billion. A resilient U.S. economy and dollar strength continue to support import demand, yet services surpluses and policy-driven shifts in sourcing keep the outcome contested. August data due October 6 and Q4 volatility remain key swing factors for year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,682Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Feb 28, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff adjustments and the unwind of 2025 import frontloading have tempered goods inflows while energy and commodity exports provide offsets, anchoring trader consensus around a 700–800 billion full-year deficit at 37.5% implied probability versus 28% for 800–900 billion. July’s $88.6 billion monthly gap—widened from June’s $71–73 billion—reflects rising capital-goods imports tied to AI infrastructure alongside softer exports, pushing the trailing twelve-month total to $744 billion. A resilient U.S. economy and dollar strength continue to support import demand, yet services surpluses and policy-driven shifts in sourcing keep the outcome contested. August data due October 6 and Q4 volatility remain key swing factors for year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,682Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Feb 28, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent tariff adjustments and the unwind of 2025 import frontloading have tempered goods inflows while energy and commodity exports provide offsets, anchoring trader consensus around a 700–800 billion full-year deficit at 37.5% implied probability versus 28% for 800–900 billion. July’s $88.6 billion monthly gap—widened from June’s $71–73 billion—reflects rising capital-goods imports tied to AI infrastructure alongside softer exports, pushing the trailing twelve-month total to $744 billion. A resilient U.S. economy and dollar strength continue to support import demand, yet services surpluses and policy-driven shifts in sourcing keep the outcome contested. August data due October 6 and Q4 volatility remain key swing factors for year-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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