Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the New York 19th congressional district race, with traders assigning him a 94 percent implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election. Riley flipped the seat in 2024 by a narrow margin and has since benefited from strong fundraising, raising nearly four times as much as his Republican opponent through mid-2026. State Senator Peter Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces significant headwinds after major Republican super PACs withdrew millions in planned advertising support in early September, citing concerns over the candidate’s viability in a district rated lean or likely Democratic by multiple forecasters. The district’s recent leftward shift and Riley’s cross-aisle appeal have further consolidated trader consensus around a Democratic hold, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or candidate-specific controversies could still alter the outcome in the final weeks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$21,045 Vol.
$21,045 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Josh Riley (D)
94%
Peter Oberacker (R)
5%
$21,045 Vol.
$21,045 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Josh Riley (D)
$10,202 Vol.
94%
Peter Oberacker (R)
$10,843 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the New York 19th congressional district race, with traders assigning him a 94 percent implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election. Riley flipped the seat in 2024 by a narrow margin and has since benefited from strong fundraising, raising nearly four times as much as his Republican opponent through mid-2026. State Senator Peter Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces significant headwinds after major Republican super PACs withdrew millions in planned advertising support in early September, citing concerns over the candidate’s viability in a district rated lean or likely Democratic by multiple forecasters. The district’s recent leftward shift and Riley’s cross-aisle appeal have further consolidated trader consensus around a Democratic hold, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or candidate-specific controversies could still alter the outcome in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,045Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the New York 19th congressional district race, with traders assigning him a 94 percent implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election. Riley flipped the seat in 2024 by a narrow margin and has since benefited from strong fundraising, raising nearly four times as much as his Republican opponent through mid-2026. State Senator Peter Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces significant headwinds after major Republican super PACs withdrew millions in planned advertising support in early September, citing concerns over the candidate’s viability in a district rated lean or likely Democratic by multiple forecasters. The district’s recent leftward shift and Riley’s cross-aisle appeal have further consolidated trader consensus around a Democratic hold, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or candidate-specific controversies could still alter the outcome in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,045Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the New York 19th congressional district race, with traders assigning him a 94 percent implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election. Riley flipped the seat in 2024 by a narrow margin and has since benefited from strong fundraising, raising nearly four times as much as his Republican opponent through mid-2026. State Senator Peter Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces significant headwinds after major Republican super PACs withdrew millions in planned advertising support in early September, citing concerns over the candidate’s viability in a district rated lean or likely Democratic by multiple forecasters. The district’s recent leftward shift and Riley’s cross-aisle appeal have further consolidated trader consensus around a Democratic hold, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or candidate-specific controversies could still alter the outcome in the final weeks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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