Google’s pattern of repeated delays on frontier Pro models, including the long-promised Gemini 3.5 Pro that missed June and July 2026 targets, combined with a recent focus on rapid Gemini Flash iterations such as the 3.8 variant released September 2, has driven trader consensus toward no Pro release by month-end. The company has prioritized agentic coding improvements and lower-cost variants while teasing larger pre-training runs for a future Gemini 4, with no official September announcements, credible benchmarks, or supply-chain signals pointing to an imminent Pro launch. This leaves the market-implied 86.5% probability on “no release by September 30” reflecting both historical slippage and the current emphasis on non-Pro updates ahead of likely October timing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by September 30 87%
September 22 4.6%
September 30 3.9%
September 23 3.8%
$88,067 Vol.
$88,067 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
September 12
1%
September 13
1%
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
2%
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
5%
September 23
4%
September 24
4%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
3%
September 29
3%
September 30
4%
No release by September 30
87%
No release by September 30 87%
September 22 4.6%
September 30 3.9%
September 23 3.8%
$88,067 Vol.
$88,067 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
September 12
$307 Vol.
1%
September 13
$336 Vol.
1%
September 14
$409 Vol.
<1%
September 15
$547 Vol.
2%
September 16
$543 Vol.
2%
September 17
$547 Vol.
2%
September 18
$310 Vol.
<1%
September 19
$307 Vol.
1%
September 20
$307 Vol.
1%
September 21
$537 Vol.
2%
September 22
$584 Vol.
5%
September 23
$464 Vol.
4%
September 24
$594 Vol.
4%
September 25
$303 Vol.
1%
September 26
$305 Vol.
1%
September 27
$307 Vol.
1%
September 28
$485 Vol.
3%
September 29
$375 Vol.
3%
September 30
$823 Vol.
4%
No release by September 30
$73,574 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s pattern of repeated delays on frontier Pro models, including the long-promised Gemini 3.5 Pro that missed June and July 2026 targets, combined with a recent focus on rapid Gemini Flash iterations such as the 3.8 variant released September 2, has driven trader consensus toward no Pro release by month-end. The company has prioritized agentic coding improvements and lower-cost variants while teasing larger pre-training runs for a future Gemini 4, with no official September announcements, credible benchmarks, or supply-chain signals pointing to an imminent Pro launch. This leaves the market-implied 86.5% probability on “no release by September 30” reflecting both historical slippage and the current emphasis on non-Pro updates ahead of likely October timing.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$88,067Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s pattern of repeated delays on frontier Pro models, including the long-promised Gemini 3.5 Pro that missed June and July 2026 targets, combined with a recent focus on rapid Gemini Flash iterations such as the 3.8 variant released September 2, has driven trader consensus toward no Pro release by month-end. The company has prioritized agentic coding improvements and lower-cost variants while teasing larger pre-training runs for a future Gemini 4, with no official September announcements, credible benchmarks, or supply-chain signals pointing to an imminent Pro launch. This leaves the market-implied 86.5% probability on “no release by September 30” reflecting both historical slippage and the current emphasis on non-Pro updates ahead of likely October timing.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,067Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s pattern of repeated delays on frontier Pro models, including the long-promised Gemini 3.5 Pro that missed June and July 2026 targets, combined with a recent focus on rapid Gemini Flash iterations such as the 3.8 variant released September 2, has driven trader consensus toward no Pro release by month-end. The company has prioritized agentic coding improvements and lower-cost variants while teasing larger pre-training runs for a future Gemini 4, with no official September announcements, credible benchmarks, or supply-chain signals pointing to an imminent Pro launch. This leaves the market-implied 86.5% probability on “no release by September 30” reflecting both historical slippage and the current emphasis on non-Pro updates ahead of likely October timing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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