Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 variants currently lead the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and related overall text leaderboards with Elo scores of 1503–1531 as of September 20–21, 2026, after mid-2026 releases that widened their edge in human preference voting. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google's Gemini 3.x updates have posted competitive but lower marks around 1485–1506 without displacing the leader. With resolution nine days away, trader-implied odds reflect the narrow window for a surprise high-scoring release or vote surge to push any model over the threshold, though historical patterns show rapid leaderboard gains are uncommon in the final stretch.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
$388,921 Vol.
1530
3%
1540
3%
1550
1%
$388,921 Vol.
1530
3%
1540
3%
1550
1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 variants currently lead the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and related overall text leaderboards with Elo scores of 1503–1531 as of September 20–21, 2026, after mid-2026 releases that widened their edge in human preference voting. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (launched September 3) and Google's Gemini 3.x updates have posted competitive but lower marks around 1485–1506 without displacing the leader. With resolution nine days away, trader-implied odds reflect the narrow window for a surprise high-scoring release or vote surge to push any model over the threshold, though historical patterns show rapid leaderboard gains are uncommon in the final stretch.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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