The Santa Catarina Senate race for two seats remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 election, with trader consensus assigning Carlos Bolsonaro the highest implied probability for second place, followed by Carol de Toni and incumbent Esperidião Amin. Recent polls, including the late-August Quaest survey, show the three right-leaning candidates in technical ties for the second vacancy after accounting for first- and second-preference votes, amid elevated undecided and blank responses. Carlos Bolsonaro’s residency transfer to the state and PL ticket placement alongside de Toni disrupted prior alliances, prompting Amin to shift toward a separate coalition while maintaining strong name recognition. Décio Lima trails further back. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among PL supporters or further consolidation on the right could still reorder the final ordering for second place.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSanta Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 41%
Carol de Toni 32%
Esperidião Amin 22%
Décio Lima 5.3%
$49,696 Vol.
$49,696 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
41%
Carol de Toni
32%
Esperidião Amin
22%
Décio Lima
5%
Carol
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 41%
Carol de Toni 32%
Esperidião Amin 22%
Décio Lima 5.3%
$49,696 Vol.
$49,696 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$15,106 Vol.
41%
Carol de Toni
$12,795 Vol.
32%
Esperidião Amin
$11,022 Vol.
22%
Décio Lima
$2,539 Vol.
5%
Carol
$1,025 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$921 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$550 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$1,498 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$942 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$788 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$565 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$925 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Santa Catarina Senate race for two seats remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 election, with trader consensus assigning Carlos Bolsonaro the highest implied probability for second place, followed by Carol de Toni and incumbent Esperidião Amin. Recent polls, including the late-August Quaest survey, show the three right-leaning candidates in technical ties for the second vacancy after accounting for first- and second-preference votes, amid elevated undecided and blank responses. Carlos Bolsonaro’s residency transfer to the state and PL ticket placement alongside de Toni disrupted prior alliances, prompting Amin to shift toward a separate coalition while maintaining strong name recognition. Décio Lima trails further back. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among PL supporters or further consolidation on the right could still reorder the final ordering for second place.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$49,696Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Santa Catarina Senate race for two seats remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 election, with trader consensus assigning Carlos Bolsonaro the highest implied probability for second place, followed by Carol de Toni and incumbent Esperidião Amin. Recent polls, including the late-August Quaest survey, show the three right-leaning candidates in technical ties for the second vacancy after accounting for first- and second-preference votes, amid elevated undecided and blank responses. Carlos Bolsonaro’s residency transfer to the state and PL ticket placement alongside de Toni disrupted prior alliances, prompting Amin to shift toward a separate coalition while maintaining strong name recognition. Décio Lima trails further back. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among PL supporters or further consolidation on the right could still reorder the final ordering for second place.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$49,696Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina Senate race for two seats remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 election, with trader consensus assigning Carlos Bolsonaro the highest implied probability for second place, followed by Carol de Toni and incumbent Esperidião Amin. Recent polls, including the late-August Quaest survey, show the three right-leaning candidates in technical ties for the second vacancy after accounting for first- and second-preference votes, amid elevated undecided and blank responses. Carlos Bolsonaro’s residency transfer to the state and PL ticket placement alongside de Toni disrupted prior alliances, prompting Amin to shift toward a separate coalition while maintaining strong name recognition. Décio Lima trails further back. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among PL supporters or further consolidation on the right could still reorder the final ordering for second place.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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