Khamenei's official X account maintains a low posting cadence as Supreme Leader, typically issuing a handful of official statements, religious messages, or policy remarks per week rather than daily commentary. Traders price the sub-five outcome at 98 percent because this baseline frequency aligns with historical patterns and the absence of acute crises, summits, or escalations in the September 18-25 window that would require additional public statements. Confirmation of resolution rests on verifiable posts from the verified handle during the exact seven-day span. A sudden diplomatic rupture, major military development, or health-related announcement could still lift totals into the five-to-nine range, though such triggers remain low-probability within the narrow timeframe.