The ECB’s September 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% reflects persistent inflation pressures, with staff projections holding headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 amid an energy shock from Middle East conflict. Upward revisions to 2027–2028 inflation forecasts and resilient euro-area growth have reinforced trader expectations that the central bank will maintain a restrictive stance through year-end rather than ease policy. Market-implied odds of 95% against a 2026 rate cut align with this data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and the absence of any pre-commitment to cuts. A faster dissipation of energy-driven price pressures or sharper downside surprises in growth could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5% tsansa
$32,739 Vol.
$32,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% tsansa
$32,739 Vol.
$32,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB’s September 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% reflects persistent inflation pressures, with staff projections holding headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 amid an energy shock from Middle East conflict. Upward revisions to 2027–2028 inflation forecasts and resilient euro-area growth have reinforced trader expectations that the central bank will maintain a restrictive stance through year-end rather than ease policy. Market-implied odds of 95% against a 2026 rate cut align with this data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and the absence of any pre-commitment to cuts. A faster dissipation of energy-driven price pressures or sharper downside surprises in growth could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$32,739Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB’s September 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% reflects persistent inflation pressures, with staff projections holding headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 amid an energy shock from Middle East conflict. Upward revisions to 2027–2028 inflation forecasts and resilient euro-area growth have reinforced trader expectations that the central bank will maintain a restrictive stance through year-end rather than ease policy. Market-implied odds of 95% against a 2026 rate cut align with this data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and the absence of any pre-commitment to cuts. A faster dissipation of energy-driven price pressures or sharper downside surprises in growth could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,739Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ECB’s September 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% reflects persistent inflation pressures, with staff projections holding headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 amid an energy shock from Middle East conflict. Upward revisions to 2027–2028 inflation forecasts and resilient euro-area growth have reinforced trader expectations that the central bank will maintain a restrictive stance through year-end rather than ease policy. Market-implied odds of 95% against a 2026 rate cut align with this data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and the absence of any pre-commitment to cuts. A faster dissipation of energy-driven price pressures or sharper downside surprises in growth could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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