The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 fulfilled the initial condition for this market, but subsequent developments have produced no comparable operations against other heads of state. US actions in the Iran conflict focused on strikes and leadership targeting rather than ground captures, while diplomatic engagements—including UN General Assembly meetings and a state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping—have emphasized negotiations over enforcement actions. No additional federal indictments, military deployments, or intelligence-driven raids against qualifying UN member-state leaders have materialized through September 2026. Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because the structural, legal, and operational factors enabling the Maduro extraction do not appear replicated for any other target before the December 31 resolution date, though late-year escalations remain possible in principle.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% โอกาส
$82,993 ปริมาณ
$82,993 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
6% โอกาส
$82,993 ปริมาณ
$82,993 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 fulfilled the initial condition for this market, but subsequent developments have produced no comparable operations against other heads of state. US actions in the Iran conflict focused on strikes and leadership targeting rather than ground captures, while diplomatic engagements—including UN General Assembly meetings and a state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping—have emphasized negotiations over enforcement actions. No additional federal indictments, military deployments, or intelligence-driven raids against qualifying UN member-state leaders have materialized through September 2026. Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because the structural, legal, and operational factors enabling the Maduro extraction do not appear replicated for any other target before the December 31 resolution date, though late-year escalations remain possible in principle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$82,993วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 fulfilled the initial condition for this market, but subsequent developments have produced no comparable operations against other heads of state. US actions in the Iran conflict focused on strikes and leadership targeting rather than ground captures, while diplomatic engagements—including UN General Assembly meetings and a state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping—have emphasized negotiations over enforcement actions. No additional federal indictments, military deployments, or intelligence-driven raids against qualifying UN member-state leaders have materialized through September 2026. Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because the structural, legal, and operational factors enabling the Maduro extraction do not appear replicated for any other target before the December 31 resolution date, though late-year escalations remain possible in principle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$82,993วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 fulfilled the initial condition for this market, but subsequent developments have produced no comparable operations against other heads of state. US actions in the Iran conflict focused on strikes and leadership targeting rather than ground captures, while diplomatic engagements—including UN General Assembly meetings and a state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping—have emphasized negotiations over enforcement actions. No additional federal indictments, military deployments, or intelligence-driven raids against qualifying UN member-state leaders have materialized through September 2026. Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because the structural, legal, and operational factors enabling the Maduro extraction do not appear replicated for any other target before the December 31 resolution date, though late-year escalations remain possible in principle.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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