The extremely short resolution window through September 30, 2026, underpins the 99.6% trader consensus that the Islamic Republic will not collapse. Despite leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death earlier in 2026, sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes, nationwide protests, and economic strain, core institutions including the IRGC and clerical authority have maintained continuity without major defections or loss of territorial control. Recent diplomatic signaling through Qatari mediators on ending hostilities further reflects operational stability rather than imminent breakdown. A sudden, unforeseen event such as coordinated elite defections, rapid military reversal, or nationwide institutional failure within the remaining days could theoretically shift outcomes, though historical patterns of regime resilience make such rapid change improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<1% โอกาส
$2,418,865 ปริมาณ
$2,418,865 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$2,418,865 ปริมาณ
$2,418,865 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The extremely short resolution window through September 30, 2026, underpins the 99.6% trader consensus that the Islamic Republic will not collapse. Despite leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death earlier in 2026, sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes, nationwide protests, and economic strain, core institutions including the IRGC and clerical authority have maintained continuity without major defections or loss of territorial control. Recent diplomatic signaling through Qatari mediators on ending hostilities further reflects operational stability rather than imminent breakdown. A sudden, unforeseen event such as coordinated elite defections, rapid military reversal, or nationwide institutional failure within the remaining days could theoretically shift outcomes, though historical patterns of regime resilience make such rapid change improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,418,865วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The extremely short resolution window through September 30, 2026, underpins the 99.6% trader consensus that the Islamic Republic will not collapse. Despite leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death earlier in 2026, sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes, nationwide protests, and economic strain, core institutions including the IRGC and clerical authority have maintained continuity without major defections or loss of territorial control. Recent diplomatic signaling through Qatari mediators on ending hostilities further reflects operational stability rather than imminent breakdown. A sudden, unforeseen event such as coordinated elite defections, rapid military reversal, or nationwide institutional failure within the remaining days could theoretically shift outcomes, though historical patterns of regime resilience make such rapid change improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,418,865วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The extremely short resolution window through September 30, 2026, underpins the 99.6% trader consensus that the Islamic Republic will not collapse. Despite leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death earlier in 2026, sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes, nationwide protests, and economic strain, core institutions including the IRGC and clerical authority have maintained continuity without major defections or loss of territorial control. Recent diplomatic signaling through Qatari mediators on ending hostilities further reflects operational stability rather than imminent breakdown. A sudden, unforeseen event such as coordinated elite defections, rapid military reversal, or nationwide institutional failure within the remaining days could theoretically shift outcomes, though historical patterns of regime resilience make such rapid change improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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