The recent U.S. midterm elections, in which Democrats gained congressional control amid voter fatigue over the ongoing conflict and elevated energy prices, represent the primary factor shaping trader views. President Trump has signaled a preference for negotiations and stated that strikes are off the table in the near term because objectives appear achievable through other means, while limited defensive actions continue amid stalled talks mediated by Qatar. A Democratic Congress is positioned to constrain major military commitments, and Gulf states have urged de-escalation rather than expanded operations. These developments reinforce the low probability of a full-scale U.S. invasion before 2027, though scheduled diplomatic exchanges and any shifts in Iranian nuclear or Strait of Hormuz positions could still alter assessments within the resolution window.