Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model trained from scratch without distillation, established the baseline for trader expectations around successor releases. The 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE model delivered competitive results on AIME math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks while emphasizing cost efficiency, aligning with Microsoft’s strategy to reduce OpenAI reliance and build a full MAI family. Public preview availability on Microsoft Foundry in mid-August added momentum, yet no follow-on thinking model has shipped since. Traders are watching for further “hill-climbing” updates, potential Microsoft events, or Foundry expansions that could signal a new release before year-end resolution thresholds, balanced against typical enterprise model iteration timelines and competitive pressures from Anthropic and OpenAI.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
24%
December 31
57%
$489 ปริมาณ
September 30
$188 ปริมาณ
24%
December 31
$301 ปริมาณ
57%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model trained from scratch without distillation, established the baseline for trader expectations around successor releases. The 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE model delivered competitive results on AIME math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks while emphasizing cost efficiency, aligning with Microsoft’s strategy to reduce OpenAI reliance and build a full MAI family. Public preview availability on Microsoft Foundry in mid-August added momentum, yet no follow-on thinking model has shipped since. Traders are watching for further “hill-climbing” updates, potential Microsoft events, or Foundry expansions that could signal a new release before year-end resolution thresholds, balanced against typical enterprise model iteration timelines and competitive pressures from Anthropic and OpenAI.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$489วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model trained from scratch without distillation, established the baseline for trader expectations around successor releases. The 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE model delivered competitive results on AIME math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks while emphasizing cost efficiency, aligning with Microsoft’s strategy to reduce OpenAI reliance and build a full MAI family. Public preview availability on Microsoft Foundry in mid-August added momentum, yet no follow-on thinking model has shipped since. Traders are watching for further “hill-climbing” updates, potential Microsoft events, or Foundry expansions that could signal a new release before year-end resolution thresholds, balanced against typical enterprise model iteration timelines and competitive pressures from Anthropic and OpenAI.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$489วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model trained from scratch without distillation, established the baseline for trader expectations around successor releases. The 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE model delivered competitive results on AIME math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks while emphasizing cost efficiency, aligning with Microsoft’s strategy to reduce OpenAI reliance and build a full MAI family. Public preview availability on Microsoft Foundry in mid-August added momentum, yet no follow-on thinking model has shipped since. Traders are watching for further “hill-climbing” updates, potential Microsoft events, or Foundry expansions that could signal a new release before year-end resolution thresholds, balanced against typical enterprise model iteration timelines and competitive pressures from Anthropic and OpenAI.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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