Forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a highest temperature near 14–15°C for Helsinki on October 3 under southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies with limited mixing. This places the market’s 54% implied probability on 15°C and 25% on 14°C in line with current guidance, as mild maritime air overrides typical early-October climatology of an 11.9°C average high. Low precipitation risk and stable pressure further support these outcomes, while the 11.5% chance assigned to 16°C reflects residual model spread and the historical record of 16.5°C. Updated short-range model runs overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.