Forecast models from European and global ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Munich on October 2 most likely between 18–20 °C, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. A weak Atlantic ridge is expected to suppress strong advection while allowing daytime solar heating under partly cloudy skies, keeping values near the early-October climatological mean of roughly 15–17 °C. Light rain or increased low-level moisture could cap afternoon maxima at the lower end of that range, whereas clearer breaks would support the upper end. Ensemble members show only small probability of exceeding 21 °C or falling below 17 °C, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service on October 1 will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.