Latest numerical weather prediction models indicate a tight range for Madrid's maximum temperature on October 2, with ensemble outputs from major centers clustering around 24–26°C and supporting the near-even market split between 25°C and 26°C-or-higher outcomes. High-pressure dominance and limited moisture advection favor daytime heating, yet variable cloud cover and a possible weak trough passage introduce uncertainty in peak values. Historical early-October climatology shows Madrid maxima averaging near 22–24°C, so current guidance reflects a modest positive anomaly. Fresh model runs and observational updates from AEMET over the next 48 hours will refine the forecast ahead of market resolution.