Ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including outputs aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, currently converge on a Beijing maximum near 22–23 °C for October 3 under partly cloudy skies with light variable winds and a low chance of brief showers. This places the market-implied probabilities for 21–23 °C outcomes in close contention, consistent with the long-term October 3 average high of 22.7 °C and the transitional autumn pattern of moderating temperatures after September warmth. Minor differences among model runs hinge on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift the peak by 1–2 °C; traders will monitor updated 00Z and 12Z cycles plus official bulletins for any adjustments before resolution.