Persistent drought across key U.S. cotton regions, particularly Texas and the Southern Plains, has driven 72–77% of cotton production into moderate or worse drought (D1+) per the U.S. Drought Monitor and AgInDrought data through late September 2026. Dry weather patterns, limited late-summer rainfall, and ongoing soil moisture deficits have sustained elevated exposure, with recent worsening noted in the Delta and Lower Midwest. These verified conditions support the market's strong preference for 55% or higher outcomes. The next USDM update and USDA crop condition reports will refine the week-of-October 6 figure, though model consensus favors persistence absent significant precipitation shifts.