Recent short-range model guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration shows Beijing under clear, stable high-pressure conditions on October 2, with ensemble means supporting a daily maximum near 23°C and limited spread in runs. Recent cold-air advection has lowered baseline temperatures, but light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover could allow modest daytime warming that differentiates 23°C from 24°C outcomes. Historical early-October averages hover near 22°C, providing context for the tight market-implied odds between these two leading bins. Traders are closely monitoring the next official forecast updates and any shifts in 500 hPa heights or boundary-layer mixing that could tip the maximum by a degree.