Ongoing disputes over Hamas disarmament sequencing continue to stall deployment of the proposed International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza. Israel insists on verified full demilitarization and tunnel destruction before any troop withdrawal or reconstruction, rejecting the Board of Peace roadmap agreed to by Hamas in July. This follows escalated Israeli strikes in late August after U.S. envoy talks collapsed. Several nations, including Morocco and Egypt, have advanced limited commitments or command structures for the ISF, while Indonesia suspended its large troop pledge amid regional tensions. A U.S.-backed working group process launched in August aims to prioritize weapons handover within 60-90 days, though Israeli elections in October and persistent ceasefire violations add uncertainty to timelines for any expanded foreign stabilization role.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIsraeli forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
On September 9, Israeli special forces captured Muein al-Arabid, Hamas's internal security chief, highlighting ongoing Israeli military operations and the continued absence of foreign peacekeepers on the ground, which kept market confidence low for foreign intervention by the September 30 deadline.
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza continue amid fragile ceasefire and no foreign troop deployment
September 30 dips to 2%2%
Israeli airstrikes on September 8, 2026, killed civilians in Gaza despite the fragile ceasefire and ongoing peace efforts. The continued hostilities and absence of foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention within the timeframe.
Kosovo military personnel arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the US-led International Stabilization Force supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet. This raised hopes for future deployment but did not affect the immediate September 30 outcome.
Riot in Gaza leads to clashes with IDF forces amid ongoing tensions
September 30 dips to 2%1%
On September 7, riots broke out in Gaza with Palestinians throwing rocks at IDF forces, who responded with gunfire. This incident underscored the volatile security situation and the absence of foreign peacekeepers, maintaining skepticism about foreign intervention by the September 30 deadline.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 23%3%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges. This supported a modest rise in market confidence for intervention by December 31.
Kosovo signs up to US-led Gaza stabilisation force amid deployment delays
December 31 dips to 25%2%
On September 7, 2026, Kosovo formally committed troops to the US-led International Stabilization Force for Gaza. However, deployment faced roadblocks due to disagreements over Israeli withdrawal timing and Hamas disarmament, delaying actual troop entry into Gaza.
Israeli military operations continue in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and no foreign intervention
September 30 dips to 4%2%
Continued Israeli strikes and military actions in Gaza despite ceasefire efforts maintained the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to price declines for foreign intervention by September 30.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 26%1%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges, supporting a modest rise in market confidence for December 31.
Hamas publicly rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
December 31 dips to 26%2%
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and the deployment of the International Stabilization Force, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights. This stance undermined prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to market declines in intervention probability.
Hamas delegation meets with Iranian foreign minister amid ongoing Gaza conflict
September 30 dips to 2%2%
On September 3, a Hamas delegation met with Iran's foreign minister to discuss support and developments in the Gaza conflict, reinforcing Hamas's stance against foreign security presence and disarmament, which further reduced the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza by the September 30 deadline.
Uganda's parliament approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda formally approved deployment of troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, signaling growing international commitment to peacekeeping efforts, which caused a modest rise in market optimism for the December 31 outcome despite no actual deployment yet.
Israeli airstrikes kill 19 Palestinians in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities
September 30 dips to 4%1%
Israeli airstrikes killed 19 Palestinians in Gaza, demonstrating continued conflict without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, which maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges.
Reports of Moroccan military outpost construction in Gaza as ISF infrastructure materializes
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Reports emerged of a 150-person Moroccan military outpost being constructed in Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force infrastructure, indicating progress toward deployment but with troops not yet physically entering Gaza. This news supported a moderate rise in market confidence for the December 31 outcome.
Israeli forces capture senior Hamas internal security chief in Gaza during ground operation
Israeli forces captured a senior Hamas figure during a ground operation in Gaza, continuing Israeli military dominance and conflict without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Report of Moroccan military outpost construction in Gaza as part of International Stabilization Force
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Reports emerged of a 150-person Moroccan military outpost being constructed in Gaza, with US funding committed for equipment and operations, indicating infrastructure buildup for foreign intervention though troops had not yet physically entered Gaza, sustaining some market hope for December 31 outcome.
Moroccan military outpost construction begins in Gaza for International Stabilization Force
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Reports emerged of a 150-person Moroccan military outpost being constructed in Gaza as part of ISF infrastructure, indicating progress toward foreign intervention but no actual troop deployment yet, maintaining market uncertainty.
Reports of ISF Infrastructure and Funding Signal Progress Toward Deployment in Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Reports emerged of a Moroccan military outpost being constructed in Gaza and US funding notifications committing $206 million for ISF equipment and operations. These developments indicated progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges, supporting a moderate rise in market confidence for the December 31 outcome.
Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt reopens for limited civilian traffic
September 30 dips to 5%1%
The Rafah crossing reopened for limited movement of Palestinians between Gaza and Egypt, a key step in the ceasefire process. However, this did not qualify as foreign military intervention since it involved civilian movement and was controlled by Egypt and Israel, not foreign troops entering Gaza for operational roles.
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza
September 30 dips to 5%2%
Israeli special forces conducted an operation in Gaza City capturing the chief of Hamas’s internal security apparatus, indicating ongoing Israeli military operations without foreign intervention, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troop deployment.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges, which supported a moderate price increase.
Israeli forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
December 31 dips to 5%1%
Israeli special forces captured Muein al-Arabid, Hamas's internal security chief, in Gaza City, underscoring ongoing Israeli military operations and the fragile security situation without foreign peacekeepers on the ground.
Hamas publicly rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
December 31 drops to 27%7%
Hamas publicly rejected the disarmament plan and any foreign security force presence in Gaza, undermining the peace plan's implementation and reducing the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza, contributing to market declines.
Ugandan Parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved sending troops to join the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a formal commitment to the multinational peacekeeping effort, though actual deployment remained pending, reflecting ongoing delays.
Hamas publicly rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
September 30 dips to 1%3%
Hamas's public rejection of the disarmament plan and any foreign security force presence undermined the peace plan's implementation and reduced the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza, contributing to a sharp market decline in intervention probability.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward physical foreign intervention and causing a rise in market probabilities for December 31.
Israeli airstrikes continue in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and no foreign intervention
September 30 drops to 1%6%
Israeli airstrikes caused significant casualties in Gaza, demonstrating continued Israeli military presence and operations without foreign peacekeepers or security forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market expectations of no foreign intervention and contributing to price declines.
Criticism mounts over Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
September 30 drops to 1%6%
Public and media criticism highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
December 31 drops to 27%7%
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly emphasized Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights, rejecting disarmament and foreign military presence, reinforcing political obstacles to foreign troop deployment and contributing to market pessimism.
Uganda approves sending troops for international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, signaling growing international commitment to peacekeeping, which increased market confidence for intervention by December 31 despite no actual deployment yet.
No foreign troops officially enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and preparations
August 31 dips to 0%1%
Despite extensive preparations and troop buildups, no foreign military personnel officially entered Gaza by late August 2026, leading to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the deadline.
No foreign troops officially enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and preparations
September 30 drops to 0%7%
By August 31, despite extensive preparations and troop buildups, no foreign military personnel had physically entered Gaza, leading to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the September 30 deadline, with prices dropping to near zero.
No foreign troops officially enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and preparations
September 30 drops to 1%6%
Despite extensive troop buildups and planning, no foreign military personnel physically entered Gaza by late August 2026, leading to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the September 30 deadline, with prices dropping to near zero.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, signaling growing international commitment to peacekeeping despite no actual deployment yet, briefly raising market optimism for intervention by December 31.
No foreign troops officially enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and preparations
August 31 dips to 0%1%
By August 30, 2026, despite troop buildups and planning, no foreign military personnel officially entered Gaza, leading to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the deadline, with prices dropping to near zero.
No foreign military personnel officially enter Gaza despite troop buildups and planning
September 30 drops to 0%7%
Despite preparations and troop commitments, no foreign military personnel physically entered Gaza by late August 2026, leading to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the September 30 deadline.
Israeli military continues strikes and maintains control over Gaza territory
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Israeli forces continued military operations and maintained control over large parts of Gaza, with no foreign peacekeeping forces entering the territory, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention likelihood.
Reports confirm delays and scaling back of international peacekeeper deployment in Gaza
Reports indicated that the US-led Board of Peace struggled to deploy the promised international peacekeeping force, with only a small number of troops expected months later and no entry into Gaza yet. This dampened market optimism and led to a significant drop in the probability of foreign intervention by the deadline.
No foreign troops enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans, market confidence collapses
September 30 drops to 2%5%
Despite troop commitments and preparations, no foreign military personnel officially entered Gaza by late August 2026. Israeli opposition and Hamas rejection of foreign presence led to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the September 30 deadline.
Israeli Media Reports Preparations for Deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 34%6%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges, briefly raising market optimism.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 34%7%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges, which supported a rise in market confidence for the December 31 outcome.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, signaling growing international commitment to peacekeeping despite no physical troop entry yet, causing a price rise in the December 31 market.
Ugandan Parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved sending troops to join the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, signaling growing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission. However, actual deployment had not yet occurred, so market impact was limited and more relevant for the December 31 outcome.
Israeli army continues attacks on Gaza Strip despite ceasefire
September 30 dips to 6%1%
Israeli military operations continued in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and no foreign intervention. The persistence of Israeli attacks and the absence of foreign troops on the ground reinforced market skepticism about imminent foreign intervention.
IDF says it killed Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives in Gaza, defying US calls to halt strikes
December 31 dips to 28%2%
The Israeli Defense Forces continued targeted strikes against Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives in Gaza despite US calls to halt, signaling ongoing conflict and no foreign peacekeeping deployment on the ground, which dampened market optimism.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and no foreign troop deployment
September 30 dips to 6%1%
Israeli military operations in Gaza continued with strikes killing militants and civilians, while no foreign peacekeeping or military personnel entered Gaza. This sustained market doubts about foreign intervention occurring by the resolution deadline.
IDF kills Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives in Gaza, defying US calls to halt strikes
The Israeli Defense Forces continued strikes against Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives in Gaza despite US calls to halt attacks, indicating ongoing Israeli military control and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This sustained market skepticism about foreign intervention.
IDF kills Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives in Gaza, defying US calls to halt strikes
August 31 dips to 0%1%
On August 28, 2026, the Israeli Defense Forces continued strikes against Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives in Gaza, despite US calls to halt attacks. This ongoing military action without foreign peacekeepers entering Gaza further diminished market confidence in foreign intervention by the deadline.
Hamas publicly rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
September 30 drops to 2%5%
Hamas's rejection of disarmament and any foreign security force presence in Gaza undermined the peace plan's implementation and reduced the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza, contributing to a sharp market decline in intervention probabilities.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, signaling growing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission. This raised market confidence for foreign intervention by December 31, though actual deployment had not yet occurred.
Public criticism mounts over Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
September 30 plunges to 7%46%
Public and media criticism increased regarding Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline, contributing to a sharp decline in intervention probability.
Official leading Trump’s Gaza ceasefire effort criticizes Israel for attacks amid stalled peace plan
September 30 dips to 4%3%
The official in charge of the ceasefire plan criticized Israel’s ongoing attacks and noted that Israel would not withdraw until Hamas disarms, highlighting political obstacles to foreign intervention and contributing to market declines.
Netanyahu resists international intervention without Hamas disarmament
September 30 drops to 2%5%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly opposed allowing international forces into Gaza without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline and causing market confidence to collapse.
No foreign troops officially enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and preparations
August 31 plunges to 1%41%
Despite troop commitments and planning, no foreign military personnel physically entered Gaza by late August 2026, leading to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the deadline.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu resists international intervention without Hamas disarmament
September 30 drops to 2%5%
Public and media criticism focused on Netanyahu's refusal to allow foreign troops into Gaza without Hamas disarmament, reinforcing skepticism about foreign intervention and causing market prices to dip near zero.
Uganda approves troop deployment to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament authorized sending troops to Gaza for the International Stabilization Force, signaling growing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission. However, actual deployment remained pending Israeli approval and political challenges.
Israeli security cabinet approves limited entry of up to 200 foreign troops into Gaza
December 31 rises to 30%2%
The Israeli security cabinet approved the limited entry of foreign troops into Gaza under the Board of Peace-led plan, marking a cautious but concrete step toward foreign operational presence. This approval temporarily boosted market expectations for intervention.
Criticism mounts over Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
August 31 dips to 1%2%
On August 27, 2026, public and media criticism highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline.
Criticism mounts over Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
September 30 drops to 1%6%
Public and media criticism increased regarding Netanyahu's resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline.
Hamas publicly rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
September 30 dips to 4%3%
Hamas's public rejection of the disarmament plan and any foreign security force presence undermined the peace plan's implementation and reduced the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza, leading to a sharp market decline in intervention probability.
Criticism mounts over Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
September 30 drops to 1%6%
Public and media criticism highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism and causing a sharp drop in intervention probability.
Ugandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
December 31 surges to 28%25%
Uganda's parliamentary approval to send troops to Gaza signaled growing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission, leading to a rise in market optimism for foreign intervention by the December 31 outcome, despite no actual deployment yet.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects foreign troop deployment without Hamas disarmament
September 30 drops to 2%5%
Netanyahu publicly opposed any Israeli military withdrawal or foreign troop deployment in Gaza before Hamas is genuinely disarmed, reinforcing political resistance and reducing market confidence in imminent foreign intervention by September 30.
Ugandan and Burundian military officials visit Israel to discuss Gaza troop deployment
Military officials from Uganda and Burundi visited Israel to discuss deploying troops to Gaza as part of the international security force. This indicated ongoing preparations but no actual troop entry into Gaza had occurred yet, maintaining market skepticism about imminent foreign intervention.
Board of Peace warns of ceasefire failure risk at UN Security Council
The Board of Peace’s High Representative for Gaza warned the UN Security Council that failure of the ceasefire process could reach a ‘point of no return,’ highlighting ongoing instability and the lack of foreign peacekeeping deployment on the ground.
UN Security Council briefing highlights ongoing Israeli strikes and fragile ceasefire in Gaza
The UN Security Council was briefed on continuing Israeli strikes and humanitarian challenges in Gaza, underscoring the fragile ceasefire and lack of foreign peacekeeping deployment, which kept market confidence low.
Board of Peace envoy criticizes Israeli restrictions as Gaza disarmament plan stalls
December 31 drops to 27%7%
Nickolay Mladenov, Board of Peace High Representative for Gaza, briefed the UN Security Council highlighting Israeli restrictions and ongoing strikes that hindered disarmament and peacekeeping efforts, reinforcing skepticism about imminent foreign troop deployment. This contributed to market declines in intervention probabilities.
UN Security Council briefing highlights fragile ceasefire and ISF deployment talks
The UN Security Council was briefed on the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and ongoing discussions about implementing the International Stabilization Force and transitional governance, underscoring the complex political environment affecting foreign intervention prospects.
Uganda and Burundi military officials visit Israel to discuss Gaza troop deployment
Military officials from Uganda and Burundi visited Israel to discuss deploying troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force. Uganda committed around 1,200 personnel, signaling growing international support but no immediate deployment on the ground yet, contributing to market uncertainty.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
In late August 2026, Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, signaling growing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission, though actual deployment had not yet occurred.
Hamas publicly rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
August 31 dips to 1%2%
Hamas publicly rejected the disarmament plan and any foreign security force presence in Gaza, undermining the peace plan's implementation and reducing the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza, contributing to market declines.
Israeli airstrikes continue in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces
September 30 drops to 1%6%
Israeli airstrikes caused significant casualties and destruction in Gaza, underscoring ongoing conflict and the absence of foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza, which contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for foreign intervention by August 31.
Hamas publicly rejects foreign intervention in Gaza affairs
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Hamas leadership reiterated rejection of foreign intervention and foreign rule in Gaza, emphasizing that Gaza is for Palestinians, which dampened prospects for foreign troops entering Gaza and contributed to market declines.
British and French ex-diplomats demand sanctions on Israel over Palestine
Former diplomats from the UK and France published an open letter calling for sanctions on Israel, reflecting international pressure but not directly advancing foreign military intervention in Gaza. This contributed to the tense political environment affecting market sentiment.
Military officials from Uganda and Burundi visit Israel for Gaza international force talks
Military officials from Uganda and Burundi visited Israel to discuss deploying troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force, indicating expanding international commitments though no confirmed deployment yet.
No foreign troops officially enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and preparations
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Despite troop buildups and planning, no foreign military personnel officially entered Gaza by late August 2026, leading to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the deadline.
British and French ex-diplomats publish open letter demanding sanctions on Israel over Palestine
Former diplomats from the UK and France called for sanctions on Israel, highlighting international pressure but not directly advancing foreign military intervention in Gaza. This contributed to the tense political environment but did not increase intervention likelihood.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 34%2%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges.
Israeli military operations continue in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and no foreign intervention
Israeli forces continued military operations in Gaza, including attacks on civilian infrastructure, with no reports of foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza territory, maintaining low market expectations for foreign intervention.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and foreign intervention, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights, reinforcing political obstacles to foreign troop deployment and contributing to market pessimism.
US-led International Stabilization Force builds up troops along Gaza border preparing for entry
December 31 drops to 27%8%
Reports emerged of the US-led ISF building up troops along the Gaza border in preparation for deployment, but no foreign troops had entered Gaza, sustaining market skepticism about imminent intervention.
US-led International Stabilization Force builds up troops along Gaza border but no entry yet
International security forces led by the US initiated a major build-up of troops along the Gaza border preparing for deployment, but no foreign personnel officially entered Gaza, maintaining low market expectations for foreign intervention.
US-led International Security Forces build up on Gaza border preparing for entry
December 31 dips to 28%2%
On August 20, US-led international security forces initiated a major build-up of troops along the Gaza border in preparation for civil and security rehabilitation efforts, but no official entry into Gaza was reported. This buildup raised hopes but did not meet criteria for foreign intervention, keeping market prices low.
International Stabilization Force builds up troops along Gaza border, no entry yet
August 31 plunges to 1%29%
Reports emerged of the US-led ISF building up troops along the Gaza border in preparation for deployment. However, no foreign troops had entered Gaza, and strict operational protocols limited information, sustaining market skepticism about imminent intervention.
International Stabilization Force Builds Up Troops Along Gaza Border, No Entry Yet
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Reports emerged of the US-led International Stabilization Force building up troops along the Gaza border in preparation for deployment, but no foreign troops had entered Gaza, sustaining market skepticism about imminent intervention.
US-led international security forces build up on Gaza border preparing for entry
On August 20, international security forces led by the US initiated a major troop buildup along the Gaza border in preparation for civil and security rehabilitation efforts. However, no official deployment into Gaza occurred, sustaining market doubts about imminent foreign intervention.
Israeli military reports three soldiers killed in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Israeli military reported casualties in Gaza, indicating ongoing hostilities but no foreign military or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, which contributed to the market's decline in probability for foreign intervention.
Israeli military launches criminal investigations into attacks on Gaza civilians
The Israeli military announced investigations into attacks that killed civilians in Gaza, highlighting ongoing conflict and complicating prospects for foreign intervention. This maintained market uncertainty and pressure on intervention likelihood.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu resists international intervention without Hamas disarmament
September 30 drops to 1%6%
Public and media criticism highlighted Netanyahu's reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the September 30 deadline.
International Stabilization Force led by US builds up troops along Gaza border
International security forces led by the US initiated a major build-up of troops along the Gaza border in preparation for potential entry to carry out civil and security rehabilitation efforts, but no official deployment into Gaza occurred yet.
International Stabilization Force builds up troops along Gaza border
International security forces led by the US initiated a major build-up of troops along the Gaza border preparing for civil and security rehabilitation efforts, but no official entry into Gaza was reported. This military buildup raised expectations but maintained uncertainty about actual foreign intervention inside Gaza.
US-led International Stabilization Force builds up troops along Gaza border preparing for deployment
December 31 dips to 28%2%
International security forces led by the US initiated a major troop buildup along Gaza’s border in preparation for civil and security rehabilitation efforts. Despite this buildup, no foreign personnel officially entered Gaza, sustaining market doubts about intervention.
US State Department notifies Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 rises to 28%1%
The US State Department informed Congress it would provide $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment, infrastructure, vehicles, and operational costs, signaling strong US commitment to the peacekeeping plan despite political challenges. This funding announcement supported market optimism for foreign intervention by the December 31 deadline.
US administration notifies Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 rises to 34%4%
The US administration officially informed Congress of funding allocation exceeding $206 million for the Gaza peacekeeping force, reinforcing commitment to the plan despite political and operational delays in deployment. This financial backing supported market optimism for eventual foreign intervention.
Morocco becomes first Arab nation to deploy troops to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Morocco signed an agreement to deploy military personnel to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking the first Arab and African country to do so. However, troops were deployed to humanitarian zones and not fully operational inside Gaza, reflecting limited foreign intervention progress.
Four countries including Morocco agree to send forces to Gaza stabilization force
Hebrew media reported that Morocco, Kosovo, Albania, and Kazakhstan gave preliminary approval to send military and security forces to the international stabilization force in Gaza, signaling expanding international commitments but no confirmed deployment yet.
US provides $206 million for Gaza peacekeeping force amid stalled deployment
The US announced significant funding for the Gaza peacekeeping force, aiming to support the stalled deployment and reconstruction efforts, but actual foreign operational presence in Gaza remained absent, keeping market confidence low.
US announces $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force despite stalled deployment
The US administration informed Congress it is providing over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment and operational costs, signaling determination to press ahead with the Gaza peacekeeping plan despite delays and ongoing conflict.
US to provide $206 million for Gaza peacekeeping force, letters show
December 31 dips to 28%2%
The US administration informed Congress it is sending over $206 million to support the proposed Gaza peacekeeping force, signaling financial commitment despite ongoing deployment delays.
US notifies Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 rises to 28%1%
The US administration informed Congress it would provide over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment and operational costs, marking the first significant funding commitment and signaling determination to proceed with the peacekeeping plan despite political challenges.
Reports indicate US struggling to deploy initial foreign peacekeepers in Gaza
December 31 drops to 28%14%
Despite pledges of 20,000 troops, the US and Board of Peace faced difficulties deploying even a small contingent of foreign peacekeepers, with troops training in Israel but no entry into Gaza, reducing market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
US administration confirms funding for Gaza peacekeeping force to Congress
The US administration officially notified Congress of funding allocation exceeding $206 million for the Gaza peacekeeping force, reinforcing commitment to the plan despite political and operational delays in deployment.
US administration informs Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 rises to 28%1%
The US administration notified Congress it would provide over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force’s equipment, infrastructure, vehicles, and operational costs, marking the first significant US funding for the stalled Gaza peacekeeping plan. This signaled continued US commitment but did not indicate immediate deployment.
US announces $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
The US administration notified Congress of providing over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment, infrastructure, and operational costs, signaling commitment to the peacekeeping plan despite stalled negotiations and no deployment yet. This funding indicated progress but did not translate into immediate foreign intervention, influencing market sentiment.
US administration confirms $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force amid stalled deployment
On August 19, 2026, the US administration publicly confirmed sending over $206 million to support the Gaza peacekeeping force, marking the first significant funding despite the stalled deployment and political reluctance from Israel and Hamas. This highlighted ongoing challenges and contributed to market uncertainty.
Israeli cabinet approves limited entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 rises to 27%3%
The Israeli security cabinet approved the limited entry of up to 200 foreign troops into Gaza under the Board of Peace-led plan, marking a cautious but concrete step toward foreign operational presence, though limited in scope.
International security forces led by US build up on Gaza border preparing for entry
International security forces led by the US initiated a major build-up of troops along the Gaza border in preparation for civil and security rehabilitation efforts, but no official entry into Gaza occurred, maintaining market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza amid fragile ceasefire, no foreign troops enter
Israeli military operations persisted in Gaza, including strikes on Hamas targets, while no foreign peacekeeping or military personnel entered Gaza. This ongoing conflict and absence of foreign boots on the ground contributed to declining market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
Kosovo troops continue preparations in Israel for Gaza stabilization mission
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Kosovo soldiers remained in Israel preparing to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, supporting logistics and civil affairs, but had not yet entered Gaza. This ongoing staging contributed to market skepticism about imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
Board of Peace remains silent on Israeli strikes amid ceasefire tensions
December 31 dips to 27%3%
Despite ongoing Israeli strikes in Gaza, the Board of Peace did not comment publicly, reflecting the fragile ceasefire and stalled peace plan implementation, which maintained market uncertainty about foreign intervention.
US confirms $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force amid stalled deployment
December 31 dips to 28%4%
The US administration reiterated its financial support for the Gaza peacekeeping force, providing $206 million for equipment and operations, but the deployment remained stalled with no foreign troops entering Gaza, maintaining market skepticism about imminent intervention.
Israeli Airstrike Kills Six Palestinians at Gaza City Port Cafe
September 30 dips to 4%3%
An Israeli airstrike targeted a cafe in Gaza City’s port area, killing six Palestinians including a child and wounding several others. This attack underscored ongoing hostilities and the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent foreign intervention by the September 30 deadline.
US and Israel create working groups for Gaza disarmament
December 31 rises to 29%1%
White House envoy Jared Kushner met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, resulting in agreement to establish working groups for disarmament and public health in Gaza. This development signaled progress toward peace efforts but did not translate into immediate foreign troop deployment, keeping market optimism moderate.
Uganda and Burundi representatives visit Rafah amid talks to join Gaza stabilization force
September 30 dips to 16%4%
On August 18, representatives from Uganda and Burundi visited Rafah to discuss joining a Gaza stabilization force. However, no official deployment of foreign operational personnel into Gaza occurred, keeping market expectations low.
Burundi and Uganda officials visit Rafah amid talks to join Gaza stabilization force
Representatives from Burundi and Uganda visited the Rafah border amid discussions to join the International Stabilization Force, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate troop deployment, maintaining market uncertainty.
Israeli airstrike kills six in Gaza port amid ongoing conflict
December 31 rises to 30%2%
Israeli airstrikes killed six people in Gaza City port, highlighting ongoing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts, which dampened prospects for foreign peacekeeping deployment and contributed to market declines.
Burundi discusses joining Gaza stabilization force amid ongoing preparations
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Burundi engaged in talks to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, reflecting growing international interest but no actual deployment yet, maintaining market skepticism about imminent foreign intervention.
Egyptian aid convoy enters Gaza through Rafah crossing
The 259th humanitarian aid convoy from Egypt entered Gaza via the Rafah border crossing, facilitating relief supplies but not constituting foreign military intervention on the ground.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved the deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, signaling growing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission, though actual deployment had not yet occurred. This approval contributed to a rise in market confidence for the December 31 outcome.
No foreign troops have entered Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and approvals
August 31 dips to 2%4%
By mid-August 2026, despite approvals and plans for the International Stabilization Force, no foreign military personnel had physically entered Gaza for operational roles. Israeli political reluctance, ongoing hostilities, and incomplete legal frameworks prevented deployment, leading to market probabilities for foreign intervention dropping to near zero.
Moroccan officers conduct field visit to Gaza as part of preparations for international stabilization force
Moroccan officers visited Gaza to prepare for their participation in the international stabilization force, indicating ongoing operational readiness despite no actual deployment yet, maintaining market uncertainty.
Uganda and Burundi representatives visit Rafah amid talks to join Gaza stabilization force
December 31 jumps to 34%6%
On August 18, representatives from Uganda and Burundi visited Rafah to discuss joining the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, signaling growing international interest in peacekeeping efforts. This news caused a rise in market optimism for foreign intervention by December 31, though no troops had yet entered Gaza.
Uganda approves troop deployment to Gaza as part of international force
Ugandan parliament approved sending troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force, marking a formal commitment to the multinational peacekeeping effort. Despite this, actual deployment into Gaza remained pending, reflecting ongoing delays and limited foreign presence on the ground.
Four countries agree to send forces to Gaza as part of international stabilization plan
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Morocco, Kosovo, Albania, and Kazakhstan gave preliminary approval to send military and security forces to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force, but deployment remained pending and operational details unresolved, maintaining market skepticism.
Uganda approves sending troops to join international force in Gaza
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, indicating expanding international participation though actual deployment timing remains uncertain.
Egypt and regional actors criticize Israel for obstructing Gaza peace plan and delaying international force deployment
September 30 drops to 1%6%
Egypt and other regional countries publicly blamed Israel for blocking the peace plan and delaying the deployment of the International Stabilization Force, reducing market optimism for foreign intervention by the August 31 deadline.
Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Turkey blame Israel for thwarting Trump's Gaza peace plan
August 31 dips to 1%2%
Regional actors publicly criticized Israel for obstructing the peace plan and delaying foreign intervention, highlighting diplomatic tensions and reducing market optimism for ISF deployment.
Hamas rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
December 31 drops to 28%5%
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and foreign military presence in Gaza, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights. This stance undermined prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment, leading to a sharp market decline.
Hamas delegation meets Egyptian intelligence chief to discuss Gaza peace plan
December 31 dips to 28%2%
A Hamas delegation met with Egypt’s spy chief to discuss advancing the implementation of the postwar Gaza plan, reflecting ongoing regional mediation efforts. However, Hamas's rejection of foreign intervention and disarmament demands continued to complicate prospects for foreign force deployment.
Egypt and other regional actors blame Israel for thwarting Gaza peace plan and delay foreign intervention
August 31 dips to 1%2%
On August 16, 2026, Egypt and other regional actors publicly criticized Israel for obstructing the peace plan and delaying the deployment of the international stabilization force in Gaza. This diplomatic tension reduced market optimism for foreign intervention by the August 31 deadline.
Eight Arab and Islamic nations condemn Israel for obstructing Gaza peace efforts
The UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and others condemned Israel for rejecting renewed efforts to implement Trump's Gaza peace plan, highlighting diplomatic deadlock and reducing expectations of foreign intervention.
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza despite ceasefire and peace plan
August 31 drops to 1%5%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the ceasefire and peace plan, raising doubts about the timing and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment. This undermined confidence in the peace plan and foreign force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Ugandan parliament approves sending troops to Gaza for international force
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to the ISF in Gaza, marking a formal commitment to the multinational peacekeeping effort, though actual deployment remained pending amid political and security challenges.
Hamas rejects foreign military presence and disarmament demands
September 30 dips to 7%1%
Hamas publicly rejected foreign military intervention and the disarmament conditions tied to the peace plan, asserting that Gaza should be governed by its people alone. This stance significantly dampened market expectations for foreign intervention by the end of 2026.
Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Turkey blame Israel for thwarting Trump's Gaza plan
September 30 plunges to 20%33%
On August 16, several regional countries blamed Israel for obstructing the implementation of Trump's Gaza peace plan. Despite diplomatic efforts, no foreign troops entered Gaza, contributing to declining market confidence in foreign intervention.
Regional instability and delays stall deployment of Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 plunges to 28%31%
Reports revealed that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This reduced market expectations of imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
Regional powers blame Israel for thwarting Trump's Gaza peace plan
Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, and others publicly criticized Israel for obstructing the US-backed peace plan, highlighting political challenges to foreign intervention and reinforcing skepticism about international forces entering Gaza.
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
December 31 dips to 27%1%
On August 15, 2026, senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and the presence of foreign security forces in Gaza, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights. This stance undermined prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to a decline in market confidence.
Arab countries condemn Israel for obstructing US Gaza peace plan
December 31 dips to 28%1%
Several Arab countries including Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE condemned Israel's rejection of the US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan, highlighting regional tensions and opposition to Israel's policies. This political opposition contributed to doubts about the feasibility of foreign peacekeeping deployment in Gaza.
Egypt calls for full Israeli withdrawal and sustained aid access to Gaza
December 31 dips to 29%2%
Egypt's Foreign Minister emphasized the need for complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the deployment of the International Stabilization Force to support security during the transitional period. This diplomatic push underscored regional support for the peace plan but also highlighted ongoing obstacles, as Israel maintained conditions for withdrawal and disarmament, tempering market expectations.
Egypt pushes to accelerate deployment of Gaza stabilization force
Egypt began constructing military facilities near its border with Gaza to support the potential ISF deployment and worked to increase humanitarian aid while minimizing public disclosure to avoid Israeli objections. This indicated regional efforts to facilitate foreign intervention but no confirmed deployment yet, sustaining market skepticism.
Criticism mounts over Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
September 30 dips to 4%3%
Public and media criticism highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline and contributing to price declines.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
Egypt called on the US to expedite the deployment of the international stabilization force and ensure humanitarian aid delivery, reflecting regional pressure to move forward with foreign intervention. However, Israeli government had not granted final approval, keeping deployment uncertain and market prices low.
Regional actors blame Israel for thwarting Trump's Gaza peace plan
September 30 plunges to 6%47%
On August 16, 2026, Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, and others publicly blamed Israel for obstructing the peace plan and delaying foreign intervention. This diplomatic tension reduced market optimism for the deployment of the international stabilization force in Gaza.
Hamas delegation meets Egypt’s intelligence chief to discuss Gaza postwar plan
December 31 dips to 29%3%
A Hamas delegation met with Egypt’s General Intelligence Service head to discuss advancing the postwar Gaza plan, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts but no foreign force deployment, contributing to market uncertainty and low intervention probability.
Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Turkey blame Israel for thwarting Trump's Gaza plan
Several regional countries publicly blamed Israel for obstructing the implementation of a U.S.-brokered Gaza peace plan, highlighting diplomatic tensions and delays in stabilization efforts. This diminished expectations for foreign operational deployments in Gaza.
Reports indicate US-led Board of Peace struggling to deploy pledged peacekeepers to Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The US-led Board of Peace faced political reluctance from Israel and delays in signing Status of Forces Agreements, stalling deployment of foreign peacekeepers to Gaza. This dampened market optimism for foreign intervention by the end of 2026.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal rejects disarmament and foreign intervention
August 31 dips to 2%4%
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and foreign military presence in Gaza, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights. This stance undermined prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment, leading to a sharp market decline.
Hamas Rejects Disarmament and Foreign Security Presence in Gaza
August 31 dips to 2%4%
Hamas publicly rejected the disarmament plan and any foreign security force presence in Gaza, undermining the peace plan's implementation and reducing the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza. This stance contributed to the market's sharp decline in probabilities for foreign intervention by the end of August.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
August 31 drops to 2%6%
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal rejected calls for disarmament and foreign military presence, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights. This stance undermined prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment, leading to a sharp market decline.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
December 31 dips to 28%4%
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal emphasized Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights, rejecting calls for disarmament and foreign military presence. This stance undermined prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to a decline in market confidence for intervention by December 31.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal again rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
December 31 drops to 27%8%
Khaled Mashal reiterated rejection of disarmament and foreign intervention, emphasizing Palestinian governance and resistance rights, further undermining the peace plan and reducing market expectations for foreign troop deployment.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
December 31 drops to 27%7%
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and foreign military presence in Gaza, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights, undermining prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment and causing sharp market declines.
Uganda's parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved sending troops to join the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, signaling growing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission. This approval increased market confidence in foreign intervention prospects despite no immediate deployment.
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
August 31 drops to 2%7%
On August 15, 2026, senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and foreign military presence in Gaza, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights. This stance undermined prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence.
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and any foreign security force presence in Gaza, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights. This stance undermined prospects for foreign stabilization force deployment, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence.
Ugandan parliament approves sending troops to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 dips to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, signaling expanding international commitment. Despite this, no troops had yet entered Gaza, and political and operational challenges persisted, keeping market probabilities low.
Israeli security cabinet maintains control over Gaza, limiting international force deployment
Despite approvals, Israel maintained that its forces would continue to hold key positions in Gaza and that no further withdrawal would occur until Hamas was fully disarmed, limiting the scope and timing of international force deployment and dampening market expectations.
Continued Israeli strikes and Hamas refusal to disarm stall Gaza peace plan implementation
September 30 drops to 9%5%
Israeli strikes continued in Gaza despite ceasefire agreements, and Hamas refused to fully disarm, stalling the implementation of the US-backed peace plan and the deployment of the international stabilization force. This ongoing conflict and lack of progress led to a sharp drop in market prices reflecting doubts about foreign intervention occurring by the deadline.
US Special Envoy and Board of Peace officials meet amid Gaza reconstruction efforts
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Board of Peace officials met to discuss Gaza reconstruction and peacekeeping plans, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate foreign troop deployment on Gaza soil.
Morocco formalizes participation in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 29%1%
Morocco signed the Participating Country Agreement to join the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a diplomatic milestone and raising hopes for foreign intervention. However, actual troop deployment remained stalled, limiting market impact.
Turkish Foreign Minister warns of radical steps if Israel stalls Gaza transition
December 31 drops to 28%6%
Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt threatened to take radical measures if the US fails to compel Israeli compliance with the Gaza transition agreement, signaling regional pressure but no foreign troops entering Gaza yet.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, complicating peace plan implementation
December 31 drops to 28%6%
Israeli military operations continued in Gaza, including strikes killing Palestinians, which undermined ceasefire stability and delayed progress on the peace plan and international force deployment. This ongoing conflict contributed to market pessimism about foreign intervention occurring soon.
Palestinians Continue to Live in Tent Camps Amid Gaza Devastation
December 31 dips to 29%1%
Reports highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza with civilians living in tents and awaiting reconstruction, underscoring the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground. This humanitarian context contributed to market skepticism about imminent foreign military intervention.
Palestinians and international observers report ongoing violence and instability in Gaza
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Reports from Gaza highlighted continued violence, humanitarian challenges, and instability despite ceasefire and peace efforts, dampening market expectations for timely foreign intervention on the ground.
EU Extends Mandate of Border Assistance Mission at Rafah Crossing
December 31 dips to 29%1%
The European Union extended its border assistance mission at the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt until mid-2027, supporting limited humanitarian access but not constituting foreign military intervention inside Gaza. This maintained the status quo and did not increase market expectations for foreign troop deployment.
Moroccan officers conduct field visit to Gaza in preparation for international stabilization force deployment
August 31 dips to 3%4%
Moroccan officers, part of the planned international stabilization force, conducted a field visit to Gaza as part of preparations for deployment. Despite this, Israeli government had not granted final approval for deployment, and Hamas had not disarmed, contributing to market skepticism and price decline.
EU extends mandate of border assistance mission at Rafah crossing
September 30 dips to 11%3%
The European Union extended its border assistance mission at the Rafah crossing, facilitating limited movement but not constituting foreign military intervention inside Gaza, reinforcing the status quo and limiting intervention expectations.
Thousands plan to march on Gaza Strip; IDF declares border closed military zone
December 31 dips to 28%1%
Amid ongoing tensions, Israeli Defense Forces declared the Gaza border a closed military zone as thousands planned marches, underscoring the fragile security situation and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza.
Israeli military conducts targeted air strike killing Hamas commander amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 dips to 28%3%
The Israeli Defense Forces carried out a precise air strike killing a Hamas commander involved in planning attacks against Israeli troops in Gaza. This military action underscored ongoing hostilities and the fragile nature of the ceasefire, complicating prospects for foreign peacekeeping deployment and contributing to market pessimism about foreign intervention.
Israel builds earthen barrier inside Gaza, entrenching division
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Satellite imagery revealed Israel constructing a large earthen barrier inside Gaza, further entrenching territorial division and signaling continued Israeli control rather than withdrawal. This development diminished expectations for foreign operational deployment inside Gaza, contributing to market declines.
Criticism mounts over Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Public and media criticism highlighted Netanyahu’s resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline.
Pre-deployment site survey by Burundi and Uganda military officers near Gaza border
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Israeli officials reported a pre-deployment site survey by senior military officers from Burundi and Uganda near Gaza, indicating ongoing preparations for the ISF deployment despite no troops yet entering Gaza territory.
Reports of Israeli forces expanding control in Gaza increase civilian risks
December 31 drops to 27%6%
On August 12, reports indicated Israeli forces expanding control over Gaza territory, increasing civilian displacement and risks. Despite heightened tensions, no foreign troops entered Gaza, maintaining market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Criticism mounts over Israel's reluctance to fully withdraw from Gaza delaying international force
December 31 dips to 29%2%
Public and media criticism highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's reluctance to fully withdraw from Gaza, which is seen as a major obstacle to the deployment of the international stabilization force, dampening market confidence further.
Israeli military conducts first Gaza air strike in over a week
The Israeli Defense Forces conducted a targeted air strike killing a Hamas commander, highlighting ongoing hostilities and the fragile nature of the ceasefire, with no foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market doubts about foreign intervention.
First members of International Stabilization Force enter Gaza to prepare for reconstruction
Footage revealed that the first members of the ISF entered Gaza to prepare for reconstruction work in areas under Israeli military control beyond the 'yellow line,' but no operational peacekeeping deployment occurred, maintaining market skepticism.
Uganda parliament approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international force
September 30 dips to 9%4%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza for the ISF, indicating expanding international participation. However, actual deployment remained pending Israeli approval, limiting immediate impact on market prices.
Israel expands military control in Gaza, increasing civilian displacement
December 31 drops to 27%6%
Reports indicated Israeli forces expanded control over Gaza territory, pushing residents to evacuate repeatedly and increasing humanitarian concerns. This military entrenchment reduced the likelihood of foreign peacekeepers entering Gaza, contributing to market skepticism.
Morocco signs historic deal to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 32%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the International Stabilization Force by signing the Participating Country Agreement, marking a diplomatic milestone and raising expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza, though no troops had yet entered Gaza.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%1%
Egypt's Foreign Minister called on the US to expedite ISF deployment and ensure humanitarian aid delivery, signaling regional support but also highlighting ongoing delays and political complexities affecting the mission.
Egypt calls for full Israeli withdrawal and sustained aid access to Gaza
Egypt's Foreign Minister emphasized the need for full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the deployment of the International Stabilization Force to support security during the transitional period. This diplomatic push highlighted regional support for the peace plan but also underscored ongoing challenges in implementation.
US President Trump demands reparations from Iran for Gaza and Lebanon damage
December 31 drops to 26%8%
Trump announced demands for reparations from Iran related to damage in Gaza and Lebanon, highlighting US involvement in regional diplomacy but no indication of US or other foreign forces entering Gaza for operational roles.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan
September 30 plunges to 7%15%
Netanyahu publicly rejected the peace plan, stating Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms, casting doubt on the timing and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment within the timeframe.
Israeli officials state no green light granted yet for international force entry into Gaza
December 31 dips to 28%3%
Israeli officials stated that despite preparations and funding for the International Stabilization Force, no final approval or deployment into Gaza had occurred, reflecting ongoing political and security challenges. This contributed to the market's decline in foreign intervention probability.
Israeli TV reports preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza have begun
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Israeli media reported that actual preparations for deployment of the ISF in parts of the Gaza Strip have started, signaling progress toward operational foreign intervention, though no troops had yet entered Gaza.
Israeli cabinet approves legal framework for limited Gaza force entry
December 31 drops to 27%6%
Israel's security cabinet approved a legal framework allowing about 200 troops from friendly countries to enter Gaza under strict conditions, but deployment remained conditional on further approvals and Hamas disarmament. This partial approval did not translate into immediate deployment, contributing to market uncertainty.
Preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza begin
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating operational readiness though no confirmed troop entry yet.
Preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza begin
Israeli TV reported that preparations for the ISF deployment in Gaza had started, indicating progress toward actual foreign intervention but with no confirmed troop entry yet, maintaining low market confidence.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
Israeli media reported that actual preparations for deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating operational progress though no confirmed entry of foreign troops yet.
Israeli media reports preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 31%3%
Israeli TV reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling operational readiness despite ongoing political and security challenges.
Preparations begin for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for deployment of the international stabilization force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward physical foreign intervention. However, no confirmed entry of foreign troops was reported by this date, tempering market optimism.
Netanyahu rejects US-backed Gaza disarmament and withdrawal plan
September 30 drops to 13%14%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly opposed the Board of Peace’s 15-point plan for Gaza, including disarmament and withdrawal, casting doubt on the timing and scope of foreign force deployment and causing market declines.
Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan, demanding full Hamas disarmament first
September 30 drops to 7%9%
Israel's rejection of the peace plan and insistence on complete Hamas disarmament before troop withdrawal undermined prospects for foreign operational deployment, contributing to a sharp market decline in intervention probability.
Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan, Netanyahu demands Hamas disarmament first
December 31 drops to 26%8%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly rejected the US-backed 15-point peace plan for Gaza, insisting Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms, casting doubt on the deployment of foreign stabilization forces and reducing market confidence.
Israeli TV reports preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza have begun
December 31 dips to 29%2%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the ISF deployment in parts of Gaza had started, indicating progress toward foreign intervention. However, no actual entry of foreign personnel into Gaza was confirmed, maintaining market skepticism and price declines.
Moroccan officers conduct field visit to Gaza for stabilization force preparations
December 31 surges to 52%25%
Moroccan military officers visited Gaza as part of preparations for their participation in the International Stabilization Force, marking a tentative step toward deployment but with no actual troop entry yet.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Netanyahu publicly rejected the 15-point peace plan proposed by Trump's Board of Peace, emphasizing that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms. This stance cast doubt on the timeline and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israel considers partial Gaza withdrawal with multinational force replacement
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Israeli security officials discussed plans for a partial military withdrawal from Gaza, with the multinational ISF set to replace troops in some areas under the ceasefire plan. This indicated potential future foreign operational presence on the ground, affecting market expectations.
Ugandan parliament confirms troop deployment to Gaza for Trump’s ceasefire plan
August 31 rises to 7%1%
Following parliamentary approval, Uganda confirmed its commitment to send soldiers to Gaza under the ISF, reinforcing multinational participation but with deployment still pending Israeli withdrawal and Hamas disarmament.
Ugandan lawmakers approve deployment of troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
Ugandan lawmakers approved the deployment of troops to Gaza to participate in the multinational International Stabilization Force, expanding international commitments though actual deployment remained uncertain.
Hamas warns US over foreign troop deployment, Israel warns of conflict internationalization
Hamas expressed concerns about foreign troops from hostile states entering Gaza, while Israel warned such deployments could internationalize the conflict, increasing tensions and uncertainty over foreign intervention.
Reports of delays and scaling back in deployment of international peacekeeping force to Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%25%
Despite troop commitments, the ISF faced significant delays and scaling back in deploying the promised international peacekeeping force to Gaza, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza, dampening market optimism.
Ugandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 dips to 31%3%
Ugandan lawmakers approved sending troops to Gaza to participate in the multinational International Stabilization Force, signaling expanding international commitments. However, no reports confirmed physical entry into Gaza yet, maintaining market skepticism.
Uganda approves troop deployment to Gaza under Trump plan
Uganda’s parliament approved sending troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, marking a significant step toward assembling the multinational peacekeeping force, though actual deployment timing remained uncertain.
Israel Maintains Control Over Gaza and Conditions Deployment on Hamas Disarmament
Israeli officials reiterated that the IDF will continue to hold the Yellow Line and will not withdraw further until Hamas is fully disarmed and Gaza is demilitarized, casting uncertainty on the timing of foreign force deployment and affecting market confidence.
Reports reveal delays and scaling back in deploying international peacekeeping force to Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%15%
The US-led Board of Peace faced significant delays and scaling back in deploying the promised international peacekeeping force to Gaza, with only a small number of troops expected months later and no entry into Gaza yet. This dampened market optimism and caused price declines.
Uganda’s parliament approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
Uganda became the first African state to publicly approve sending troops to Gaza as part of the US-brokered International Stabilization Force, marking progress in assembling the multinational force despite ongoing delays and political challenges.
Ugandan Parliament approves troop deployment for Gaza international force
Uganda's Parliament authorized deployment of troops to the international peacekeeping force in Gaza, signaling growing international participation. However, actual deployment remained pending Israeli approval, limiting immediate impact on market prices.
Ugandan Parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for international peacekeeping force
Uganda's parliamentary approval to send troops to the ISF indicated expanding international participation. However, actual deployment was pending Israeli approval and operational arrangements, limiting immediate effect on the market.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force proposed by Trump's Board of Peace, signaling concrete steps toward actual foreign military presence in Gaza. This development briefly supported market optimism about foreign intervention.
Ugandan Parliament approves troop deployment to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 dips to 28%3%
Uganda's Parliament passed a resolution authorizing deployment of troops to the international peacekeeping force in Gaza, marking a significant commitment to the multinational stabilization effort. However, operational details and deployment timing remained unclear, sustaining market uncertainty.
Ugandan parliament approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international force
Uganda's parliamentary approval to deploy troops to Gaza as part of the ISF marked a concrete commitment from a foreign country, supporting the likelihood of foreign personnel entering Gaza operationally.
Ugandan Parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Uganda's Parliament authorized deployment of the Uganda People's Defence Forces to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, marking the first African state to publicly commit troops. This raised market expectations for foreign intervention but actual deployment timing remained uncertain.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, marking a concrete step toward assembling foreign personnel for operational roles in Gaza.
Ugandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
August 31 dips to 6%2%
Uganda's parliament authorized sending troops to Gaza as part of the ISF, marking a concrete step toward multinational deployment and affecting market prices downward due to ongoing uncertainties about the mission's timing and scope.
Ugandan parliament approves troop deployment to Gaza for international stabilization force
August 31 dips to 6%1%
On August 6, 2026, Uganda's parliament authorized sending troops to Gaza as part of the US-backed multinational peacekeeping mission, marking a concrete step toward deployment but with ongoing uncertainties about timing and scope, affecting market prices downward.
Hamas rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%19%
Hamas publicly rejected both disarmament and the presence of external security forces, stalling the implementation of the ceasefire roadmap and reducing market expectations for foreign intervention within Gaza territory.
Eight Arab and Muslim countries denounce Israeli attacks on Gaza hospitals amid ceasefire
December 31 plunges to 34%21%
Foreign ministers condemned Israeli strikes on Gaza medical facilities, highlighting ongoing violence and undermining confidence in peace plan implementation and foreign force deployment, leading to market price declines.
Uganda formally approves sending troops to Gaza international force
Uganda's parliament formally approved the deployment of troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, reinforcing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission despite delays in actual deployment.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, signaling growing international commitments to the peacekeeping mission. This development suggested progress in assembling the multinational force but did not confirm immediate deployment, contributing to cautious market reactions.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
September 30 dips to 11%1%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force proposed by the Board of Peace, signaling growing international commitment but no immediate deployment inside Gaza yet.
Indonesia halts troop deployment to International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 27%8%
Indonesia officially postponed deployment of 8,000 troops to the ISF citing escalating regional security risks and instability. This withdrawal reflected growing international hesitancy and contributed to declining market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
Uganda parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza stabilization mission
December 31 rises to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament authorized deployment of approximately 1,200 troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking the first African state to commit troops. This showed growing international troop commitments despite ongoing delays in actual deployment.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force, signaling expanding international commitments but no immediate deployment on the ground yet.
Israeli military chief vows to continue proactive operations in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 33%16%
On August 5, Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir stated that the Israel Defense Forces would continue to "operate proactively" in Gaza, signaling ongoing Israeli military control and diminishing prospects for foreign peacekeeping deployment within Gaza.
US administration notifies Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 rises to 35%1%
The US administration informed Congress it would provide over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment and operational costs, signaling commitment to the peacekeeping plan despite delays in deployment, which affected market expectations.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms troops will remain in Gaza security zones indefinitely
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Israeli Defense Minister stated that Israeli troops would maintain their presence in Gaza security zones indefinitely, signaling no imminent withdrawal and complicating prospects for foreign force deployment inside Gaza, contributing to market price drops.
Ugandan Parliament Approves Deployment of Troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Uganda's parliament approved sending troops to join the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a significant commitment from an African nation to the multinational peacekeeping effort, influencing market perceptions of foreign intervention likelihood.
Israeli military chief states IDF will continue proactive operations in Gaza despite peace plan
The Israeli military chief declared ongoing proactive IDF operations in Gaza, signaling continued Israeli military presence and complicating prospects for full foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal.
Reports reveal delays in deploying International Stabilization Force to Gaza
December 31 drops to 54%9%
Reports indicated that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This reduced expectations of imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
Egypt presses Israel to reopen Rafah crossing for goods into Gaza
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Egypt intensified efforts to reopen the Rafah border crossing for humanitarian goods into Gaza, highlighting ongoing regional cooperation but no foreign military intervention on the ground. This underscored the complex logistics and political challenges facing foreign operational deployments.
Israeli military chief states IDF will continue proactive operations in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 31%22%
Despite the peace plan, Israeli military leadership affirmed ongoing operations in Gaza and no agreement on withdrawal, dampening expectations for foreign troop deployment and contributing to market declines in intervention probability.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu states no withdrawal until Hamas fully disarmed
September 30 plunges to 22%31%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas was genuinely disarmed, signaling a hardline stance that delayed foreign peacekeeping deployment and contributed to market price declines.
Morocco deploys troops to International Stabilization Force in Gaza
Morocco became the first Arab and African nation to deploy military personnel to the ISF in Gaza, including officers, gendarmes, and a field hospital, marking a concrete step toward foreign operational presence in Gaza.
Jordan calls emergency meeting over Israeli threats to al-Aqsa mosque amid Gaza conflict
September 30 rises to 24%4%
Jordan convened Arab and Islamic foreign ministers to discuss Israeli plans perceived as threatening religious sites, reflecting regional diplomatic tensions but no deployment of foreign forces into Gaza territory.
Netanyahu states no Israeli withdrawal from Gaza until Hamas disarmed
December 31 plunges to 33%31%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israeli troops would not withdraw from Gaza without genuine Hamas disarmament, tempering expectations for immediate foreign force deployment and causing market price declines.
Israeli airstrikes cause highest daily death toll in weeks in Gaza city and surroundings
August 31 drops to 1%5%
Israeli airstrikes on August 3 targeted multiple locations in Gaza, causing significant casualties and destruction. Despite the violence, no foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entered Gaza, reinforcing market expectations against foreign intervention.
Israeli forces continue attacks in Gaza despite ceasefire, causing civilian casualties
December 31 drops to 28%14%
On August 3, Israeli forces reportedly killed more than two dozen Palestinians in Gaza and continued attacks on civilian infrastructure despite ongoing ceasefire agreements. This ongoing conflict and instability reduced market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
UN condemns Hamas obstruction of humanitarian aid in Gaza
December 31 dips to 34%1%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator publicly condemned Hamas for obstructing humanitarian operations in Gaza, highlighting ongoing security and political challenges and underscoring the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground.
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza, defying US-backed peace plan
December 31 drops to 51%14%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the peace plan, undermining ceasefire progress and casting doubt on the feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment within the timeframe, leading to market declines.
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza, threatening US-backed peace plan
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the ceasefire and peace plan, raising doubts about the timing and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israel escalates deadly attacks on Gaza, defying US-backed peace plan
September 30 plunges to 8%16%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the ceasefire and peace plan, threatening the US-backed roadmap and reducing market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
Israeli warplanes hit Gaza city and surrounding areas causing highest daily death toll in weeks
August 31 drops to 1%6%
Israeli airstrikes on August 3 targeted multiple locations in Gaza, causing significant casualties and destruction. Despite ongoing violence, no foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entered Gaza, reinforcing market expectations against foreign intervention.
Israeli forces continue attacks in Gaza despite ceasefire, raising doubts on peace plan
September 30 drops to 6%8%
Israeli military actions, including strikes on civilian infrastructure, persisted despite ceasefire agreements, undermining confidence in the peace plan and foreign force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israel escalates attacks on Gaza, threatening US-backed peace roadmap
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Israel intensified military strikes in Gaza, undermining the fragile ceasefire and complicating implementation of the US-backed peace plan and the deployment of the International Stabilization Force.
Israeli airstrikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire and peace plan
Israeli forces conducted multiple airstrikes in Gaza, killing civilians and undermining ceasefire efforts. This ongoing violence reduced confidence in the peace plan and foreign force deployment, contributing to market price declines for all options.
Market optimism spikes on reports of deployment preparations for Gaza stabilization force
December 31 surges to 61%19%
Reports emerged that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza had begun, including reconnaissance visits and training, leading to a sharp increase in market prices reflecting renewed optimism about foreign intervention.
Israeli Airstrikes Kill Dozens in Gaza Amid Fragile Ceasefire
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Israeli airstrikes killed multiple Palestinians in Gaza despite a fragile ceasefire, underscoring ongoing hostilities and the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, which contributed to declining market confidence in foreign intervention.
Israeli strikes kill 19 Palestinians in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities
September 30 dips to 22%4%
On August 2, Israeli airstrikes killed 19 Palestinians in Gaza, including in Gaza City and northern Gaza Strip, demonstrating continued conflict without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention.
US announces $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 surges to 59%33%
The US administration informed Congress of over $206 million in funding for the Gaza peacekeeping force, signaling determination to press ahead with the plan despite delays and challenges. This financial commitment briefly boosted market optimism about foreign intervention.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 27%23%
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal rejected calls for disarmament and the deployment of foreign security forces in Gaza, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights. This stance undermined prospects for foreign troop deployment and contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence.
Kosovo soldiers arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 52%18%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the US-led International Stabilization Force supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians amid fragile ceasefire in Gaza
December 31 dips to 52%4%
Israeli airstrikes killed multiple Palestinians in Gaza despite ongoing ceasefire agreements, underscoring continued hostilities and the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, which contributed to market skepticism about foreign intervention.
US notifies Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 drops to 50%6%
The US State Department informed Congress it will provide $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment and operations, signaling strong US commitment to the Gaza peacekeeping plan and boosting market confidence.
Israeli strikes in Gaza kill dozens amid fragile ceasefire and no foreign troop entry
December 31 plunges to 34%20%
Israeli airstrikes killed at least 26 Palestinians over the weekend, underscoring ongoing hostilities and the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces physically entering Gaza, which dampened market optimism for foreign intervention.
Israeli strikes kill 19 Palestinians in Gaza amid ongoing military operations
August 31 plunges to 8%18%
Israeli airstrikes caused significant casualties in Gaza, demonstrating continued Israeli military presence and operations without foreign peacekeepers or security forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market expectations of no foreign intervention.
Israeli strikes kill 19 in Gaza amid fragile ceasefire and peace plan
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
On August 2, 2026, Israeli strikes killed 19 people in Gaza, including civilians, despite ongoing ceasefire efforts. This escalation raised doubts about the timing and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza cause significant casualties amid fragile ceasefire
August 31 plunges to 7%35%
Israeli airstrikes on multiple locations in Gaza caused casualties and destruction, underscoring ongoing hostilities and undermining the peace plan, which reduced market confidence in foreign intervention.
Israeli airstrikes continue in Gaza amid fragile ceasefire and stalled foreign force deployment
December 31 plunges to 31%22%
Israeli airstrikes targeted buildings and Hamas positions in Gaza, continuing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This ongoing conflict and lack of foreign deployment contributed to market price declines.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire efforts
August 31 plunges to 1%41%
Israeli military operations targeted Hamas infrastructure and operatives in Gaza, undermining ceasefire efforts and complicating prospects for foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Market prices decline amid doubts over actual deployment of international force
December 31 drops to 52%12%
Following the initial optimism, market prices dropped sharply as no foreign troops physically entered Gaza and Israel maintained strict conditions, including no withdrawal beyond the Yellow Line without Hamas disarmament.
International Stabilization Force preparations continue near Gaza border
December 31 plunges to 34%19%
International security forces led by the US initiated a major build-up of troops along the Gaza border preparing for civil and security rehabilitation efforts, indicating imminent deployment though no confirmed entry into Gaza territory yet.
Israeli strikes escalate in Gaza despite US-backed peace roadmap
December 31 surges to 60%15%
Israel escalated attacks in Gaza, defying the US-backed peace plan and worsening humanitarian conditions. This escalation decreased market optimism for foreign intervention.
Al-Quds Brigades consent to Hamas disarmament plan
September 30 jumps to 24%8%
The Al-Quds Brigades agreed to the disarmament plan, signaling progress in peace efforts and raising hopes for foreign peacekeeping deployment, reflected in a temporary price increase.
Al-Quds Brigades consent to disarmament plan in Gaza
The Al-Quds Brigades agreed to the disarmament plan proposed by the Board of Peace, signaling a potential political shift. However, no foreign operational forces entered Gaza, so the market remained cautious about foreign intervention.
Israeli military chief confirms ongoing proactive operations in Gaza
December 31 surges to 62%31%
Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir confirmed continued proactive military operations in Gaza, emphasizing Israel's commitment to security and undermining prospects for foreign peacekeeping deployment.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza stabilization force
December 31 surges to 52%18%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, supporting logistics and civil affairs, but no deployment inside Gaza occurred yet. This maintained uncertainty about actual foreign intervention on the ground and contributed to market skepticism.
Israeli airstrikes kill 19 Palestinians in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities
September 30 dips to 22%2%
Israeli airstrikes killed 19 Palestinians in Gaza, including in Gaza City and northern Gaza Strip, demonstrating continued conflict without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israel kills 19 in Gaza despite Trump’s peace plan and ceasefire roadmap
September 30 plunges to 22%31%
Israeli airstrikes continued killing civilians and damaging medical facilities despite the Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force's announced ceasefire roadmap, indicating no foreign peacekeeping or military forces had entered Gaza to enforce peace.
Reports reveal delays in deployment of International Stabilization Force to Gaza
December 31 plunges to 32%32%
Reports in early August revealed that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This delay reduced expectations of imminent foreign intervention on the ground, causing a price drop.
Israeli military conducts strikes in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and no foreign intervention
December 31 plunges to 34%22%
Israeli forces continued military operations in Gaza, including strikes on civilian infrastructure, with no reports of foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza territory. This reinforced market expectations that no foreign intervention was occurring.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
August 31 drops to 3%13%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force, signaling growing international support but no immediate deployment on the ground yet, contributing to market uncertainty.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 34%3%
Israeli media reported that actual preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling progress toward physical foreign intervention. This development temporarily increased market confidence in near-term deployment despite ongoing political and security challenges.
Israeli attacks continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, UN reports
December 31 dips to 52%4%
UN agencies reported ongoing Israeli attacks on civilian infrastructure in Gaza, including schools, undermining the fragile ceasefire and complicating stabilization efforts. This heightened concerns about security and delayed foreign force deployment, causing market declines.
US State Department confirms deployment of International Stabilization Force contingent pending conditions
December 31 drops to 54%5%
The US State Department confirmed that deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza would begin after conditions such as NCAG entry and disarmament processes, indicating delays and conditionality in foreign troop deployment.
Hamas agrees to phased disarmament under international supervision
Hamas and other Palestinian factions agreed to a progressive disarmament plan in Gaza under international supervision, a key condition for foreign peacekeeping deployment. However, implementation depended on Israeli withdrawal, which remained uncertain, limiting market optimism.
Israeli forces continue airstrikes and demolitions in Gaza amid ceasefire
December 31 drops to 45%7%
Israeli military operations, including airstrikes and demolitions, continued in Gaza despite ceasefire efforts, causing civilian casualties and undermining stability. No foreign peacekeeping forces entered Gaza, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent foreign intervention.
Israel reopens Rafah border crossing with Egypt for limited pedestrian movement
Israel reopened the Rafah border crossing with Egypt for limited pedestrian movement under strict security coordination, allowing some movement but not constituting foreign military intervention. This humanitarian development had limited impact on the market's foreign intervention outlook.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians in Gaza amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Israeli shelling killed eight Palestinians in Gaza, underscoring the fragile ceasefire and ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Israeli forces continue attacks in Gaza despite ceasefire, causing civilian casualties
December 31 drops to 49%6%
On August 1 and following days, Israeli forces carried out airstrikes and attacks in Gaza, killing civilians and damaging infrastructure despite ceasefire agreements. These ongoing hostilities reduced market confidence in imminent foreign intervention by international forces.
Israeli military kills 8 Palestinians amid fragile Gaza ceasefire
December 31 plunges to 32%24%
Israeli shelling killed eight Palestinians in Gaza, underscoring the fragile ceasefire and ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, contributing to a decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms IDF presence in Gaza security zones indefinitely
December 31 plunges to 34%19%
Israel's Defense Minister stated that Israeli forces would maintain control over Gaza security zones indefinitely, signaling no imminent withdrawal and complicating prospects for foreign force deployment, leading to market declines.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians amid fragile ceasefire, no foreign troops enter Gaza
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Israeli airstrikes killed several Palestinians in Gaza, underscoring ongoing hostilities and the fragile ceasefire, while no foreign peacekeeping forces entered Gaza, reinforcing market expectations against imminent foreign intervention.
Egypt calls for full Israeli withdrawal and sustained aid access to Gaza
December 31 surges to 54%23%
Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and sustained humanitarian aid delivery, emphasizing the need for international stabilization force deployment. However, Israel rejected the peace plan, maintaining military presence and preventing foreign operational entry, which dampened market optimism.
Preparations for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza begin
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling operational progress though no full deployment had occurred yet.
Israeli military chief states IDF will continue proactive operations in Gaza
December 31 dips to 54%2%
The Israeli Defense Forces announced ongoing proactive military operations in Gaza despite the peace plan, signaling no imminent withdrawal or foreign force deployment. This stance contributed to market skepticism about foreign intervention prospects within the resolution window.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire and disarmament talks
December 31 drops to 52%7%
Israel conducted airstrikes in Gaza amid ongoing peace talks, casting doubt on the implementation of the peace plan and reducing market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
Palestinians report ongoing Israeli strikes in Gaza despite ceasefire
August 31 plunges to 5%19%
Despite ceasefire agreements, Israeli forces continued air strikes and shelling in Gaza, causing civilian casualties and undermining stability. This ongoing violence reduced confidence in the peace plan and foreign force deployment, pushing market prices down.
International Stabilization Force deployment to Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 plunges to 34%19%
Reports indicated significant delays and scaling back in deploying the planned international peacekeeping force to Gaza, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This reduced market expectations for imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
Israeli security cabinet approves legal framework for limited ISF deployment in Gaza
December 31 dips to 51%1%
On August 1, 2026, Israel’s security cabinet approved a legal framework allowing a limited deployment of the International Stabilization Force into Gaza’s humanitarian zone, pending further approvals. This cautious step was seen as a political maneuver, maintaining Israeli control and limiting foreign troop presence, affecting market confidence.
Israeli airstrikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire
August 31 plunges to 6%17%
Israeli airstrikes killed civilians in Gaza, underscoring ongoing hostilities without any foreign peacekeeping or military forces entering Gaza, contributing to market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms troops will remain in Gaza security zones indefinitely
Israel's Defense Minister stated that Israeli forces would maintain their presence in Gaza security zones indefinitely, signaling no withdrawal or foreign intervention by other states or international bodies. This reinforced market expectations against foreign operational deployments in Gaza.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Kosovo soldiers arrived in Israel to join the ISF supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet.
Israeli airstrike hits medical supplies warehouse in Gaza amid ongoing tensions
August 31 dips to 6%1%
An Israeli airstrike targeted a pharmaceuticals warehouse at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Gaza, highlighting ongoing hostilities despite ceasefire efforts and complicating prospects for foreign force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israeli airstrike hits medical supplies warehouse in Gaza amid ceasefire breaches
December 31 plunges to 32%22%
An Israeli airstrike targeted the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital's pharmaceuticals warehouse in Deir el-Balah, worsening humanitarian conditions and undermining the US-backed ceasefire plan, signaling continued Israeli military dominance without foreign operational intervention on the ground.
Israeli strike kills Palestinian in Gaza amid ongoing demolitions
September 30 dips to 12%1%
Israeli strikes killed Palestinians in Gaza while demolitions continued, highlighting persistent conflict and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This sustained the market's downward trend in foreign intervention probability.
International peacekeeping force for Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 33%11%
Reports revealed that the planned International Stabilization Force for Gaza was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This delay reduced expectations of imminent foreign intervention on the ground, causing market prices to drop.
Palestinians inspect site of Israeli airstrike amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
August 31 plunges to 8%22%
Israeli airstrikes continued in Gaza, underscoring ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping or military forces entering Gaza. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Israel’s security cabinet approves legal framework for limited entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 dips to 52%2%
Israel’s cabinet approved a legal framework allowing limited entry of ISF troops into Gaza’s humanitarian zones, pending further approvals. This cautious step was seen as a political maneuver and did not result in immediate foreign operational deployment, causing mixed market reactions.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and progress on Gaza peace effort
September 30 surges to 51%26%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key condition for foreign stabilization forces to operate. This announcement briefly boosted market confidence in foreign intervention prospects.
Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including disarmament plan
December 31 surges to 56%25%
US President Trump touted progress on the Gaza peace plan, including efforts to disarm Hamas and implement ceasefire terms, raising hopes for foreign intervention and causing a temporary market price increase.
US President Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament agreement
December 31 surges to 66%35%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza, a key step for the peace plan and foreign force deployment. This announcement initially raised optimism and market prices.
Morocco Officially Joins International Stabilization Force for Gaza
September 30 jumps to 64%11%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the International Stabilization Force, committing military officers, police personnel, and a field hospital to support security and humanitarian efforts in Gaza, reinforcing the multinational mission's credibility.
US-led Board of Peace announces agreement to disarm Hamas and militant groups in Gaza
December 31 surges to 52%19%
US President Donald Trump announced that the Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza. Despite this diplomatic development, no foreign troops entered Gaza, maintaining market uncertainty about foreign intervention.
US President Donald Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups, contingent on Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes for foreign force deployment but with ongoing uncertainties.
Moroccan troops prepare for deployment to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
December 31 surges to 53%16%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the international stabilization force, including deployment of officers and establishment of a field military hospital in Gaza. This concrete preparation indicated progress toward foreign intervention, temporarily boosting market optimism.
US President Trump announces Board of Peace agreement to disarm Hamas
December 31 surges to 50%17%
Trump announced that the Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, raising hopes for peace and foreign intervention. However, Hamas conditioned disarmament on Israeli withdrawal, limiting immediate impact on foreign troop deployment.
US administration informs Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 surges to 59%20%
The US administration notified Congress of over $206 million in funding for the International Stabilization Force’s equipment, infrastructure, and operational costs, signaling determination to press ahead with the Gaza peacekeeping plan despite stalled progress. This funding announcement caused a market price peak.
Israeli military kills Hamas commander amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
December 31 surges to 59%25%
An Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander on July 31, 2026, continuing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts. This event contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations, reflecting ongoing conflict without foreign peacekeepers entering Gaza.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas under Gaza peace plan
December 31 rises to 53%3%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas, a key condition for foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes but with uncertain implementation, causing market fluctuations.
US Board of Peace reaches agreement to disarm Hamas and militant groups in Gaza
December 31 surges to 66%29%
US President Donald Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza, a key step in the peace plan. However, disarmament was contingent on Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction progress, leaving uncertainty about foreign intervention.
Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and deploy International Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 59%32%
US President Trump announced a historic agreement to disarm Hamas and deploy the ISF, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough. Despite this, implementation remained uncertain due to ongoing Israeli military presence and Hamas resistance.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 55%35%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet.
Trump's Board of Peace announces agreement to disarm Hamas and militant groups in Gaza
December 31 surges to 53%24%
US President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza, a key step in the peace plan. However, disarmament was contingent on Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction progress, leaving deployment uncertain and causing market volatility.
Israeli cabinet approves limited deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 surges to 66%35%
Israel's security cabinet approved the limited entry of up to 200 foreign troops into Gaza under the Board of Peace plan, marking a cautious but concrete step toward foreign operational presence, though limited in scope and restricted to humanitarian zones.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
Israeli military actions continued with strikes killing Palestinians in Gaza, underscoring the fragile ceasefire and ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This sustained market uncertainty and contributed to price volatility.
Morocco becomes first Arab and African nation to deploy military to Gaza International Stabilisation Force
December 31 surges to 54%34%
Morocco signed an agreement to formalize its participation in the ISF, deploying troops to Gaza under the US-backed peace plan. This marked a significant step toward multinational involvement but did not yet involve foreign personnel entering Gaza territory, contributing to market volatility.
Board of Peace and US President announce agreement with Hamas on Gaza ceasefire roadmap
December 31 jumps to 59%11%
The Board of Peace and US President announced a roadmap agreement with Hamas for the second phase of the ceasefire, including disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes for stabilization but with ongoing Israeli military operations.
Trump touts progress on Gaza peace effort including ISF deployment conditions
December 31 jumps to 57%14%
President Trump announced progress on the Gaza peace plan, including conditions for ISF deployment such as Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes but also highlighting implementation challenges, causing market fluctuations.
Trump announces Hamas disarmament agreement under Gaza peace plan
December 31 surges to 56%28%
President Trump announced a breakthrough agreement that Hamas would disarm in phases as Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza, a key condition for foreign peacekeepers to deploy. This announcement temporarily boosted market optimism about foreign intervention prospects.
White House unveils roadmap to demilitarize Gaza including international force deployment
December 31 surges to 63%37%
The White House announced a new framework for Gaza's demilitarization, including deployment of an international force led by the U.S. with commitments for over 5,000 troops. This announcement initially raised market expectations for foreign intervention.
US Board of Peace announces agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
On July 30, US President Donald Trump's Board of Peace announced a historic breakthrough agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza. Despite this, Hamas conditioned disarmament on Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction progress, maintaining tensions and uncertainty about foreign force deployment.
US allocates $206 million for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 surges to 65%34%
The US administration informed Congress it would provide over $206 million to fund the International Stabilization Force's equipment and operations in Gaza, signaling commitment to the peacekeeping plan despite ongoing challenges. This financial backing raised hopes for deployment but did not confirm boots on the ground yet.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and implement peace roadmap
August 31 jumps to 52%10%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key condition for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force. This announcement initially raised hopes for progress but was met with skepticism due to ongoing Israeli control and Hamas resistance.
US President Trump announces Hamas agreement to phased disarmament
December 31 rises to 35%4%
President Trump announced a breakthrough deal with Hamas agreeing to phased disarmament as Israel plans withdrawal from Gaza. This raised hopes for foreign force deployment and reconstruction, causing a temporary market optimism spike.
US administration informs Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 53%20%
The US notified Congress of significant funding for the ISF's equipment and operational costs, signaling commitment to the peacekeeping plan despite delays in deployment, which affected market expectations.
Israeli airstrikes kill Hamas commander amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%9%
An Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander in Gaza, continuing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts. This event indicated ongoing conflict without foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 54%34%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force supporting Gaza security efforts, indicating progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet. This raised hopes but maintained skepticism about actual foreign intervention on the ground.
US and Board of Peace announce roadmap for Gaza ceasefire plan implementation
December 31 rises to 30%2%
The US President and Board of Peace announced a roadmap for implementing the 20-point ceasefire plan in Gaza, aiming to advance reconstruction and security arrangements. However, the plan remained frozen with Hamas still armed and Israeli control over much of Gaza, limiting prospects for immediate foreign troop deployment.
President Trump Announces Historic Agreement for Hamas Disarmament and Israeli Withdrawal
December 31 jumps to 56%14%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas and phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, with the International Stabilization Force to work alongside a new Palestinian police force. This announcement significantly impacted market expectations for foreign intervention.
White House unveils roadmap to demilitarize Gaza including international force deployment
September 30 surges to 64%44%
The US announced a detailed framework for Gaza's demilitarization and international force deployment, with commitments for over 5,000 troops, raising market expectations for foreign intervention.
US President Trump announces Board of Peace agreement to disarm Hamas
December 31 surges to 53%23%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza, a key condition for foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes but also uncertainty about implementation.
US informs Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 surges to 52%16%
On July 30, 2026, the US State Department notified Congress of over $206 million allocated for the International Stabilization Force's equipment, infrastructure, and operational costs in Gaza. This was the first significant funding for the stalled peacekeeping plan, signaling US commitment despite ongoing challenges.
President Trump and Board of Peace announce historic Gaza peace roadmap
December 31 surges to 51%21%
On July 30, President Donald Trump and the Board of Peace announced a roadmap for Gaza peace, including plans for an International Stabilization Force (ISF) deployment and Palestinian governance transition. However, the plan faced delays and lack of immediate troop deployment, causing mixed market reactions.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 34%7%
Israeli media reported preparations for ISF deployment in Gaza had begun, signaling progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges, briefly raising market optimism.
Morocco conducts field visit to Gaza for peacekeeping mission preparations
December 31 rises to 28%2%
Moroccan officers conducted a field visit to Gaza as part of preparations for their participation in the International Stabilization Force, indicating active steps toward deployment despite ongoing political and security challenges.
Trump’s Board of Peace announces roadmap for Gaza ceasefire implementation
December 31 surges to 65%31%
On July 30, President Trump's Board of Peace announced a roadmap for implementing a ceasefire plan in Gaza, but the plan remained frozen with Hamas armed and Israel controlling much of Gaza. No foreign operational forces entered Gaza, maintaining market uncertainty.
US notifies Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 surges to 56%17%
The Trump administration informed Congress it would provide over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment, infrastructure, and operational costs, marking the first significant funding commitment and signaling intent to proceed despite stalled diplomacy.
Egypt pushes to accelerate deployment of Gaza stabilization force
December 31 surges to 54%28%
Egypt, working with the US and regional partners, began constructing military facilities near the Gaza border to support the ISF deployment and increased humanitarian aid quietly. This indicated progress toward operationalizing the force, boosting market confidence temporarily.
Trump touts progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament plan
December 31 surges to 53%26%
US President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas, a key condition for foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes but also uncertainty about implementation.
Trump and Board of Peace announce historic Gaza ceasefire roadmap breakthrough
December 31 surges to 66%34%
On July 30, President Trump and the Board of Peace announced a historic breakthrough on a Gaza ceasefire roadmap, endorsed by the UN Security Council. Despite this, the plan remained frozen with Hamas armed and Israel controlling much of Gaza, limiting foreign operational deployment and causing market volatility.
Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament plan
December 31 surges to 53%22%
US President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas, a key condition for foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes but also uncertainty about implementation.
Board of Peace announces agreement with Hamas on Gaza ceasefire roadmap
December 31 surges to 52%19%
The Board of Peace announced a roadmap agreement with Hamas focusing on disarmament and phased Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes for foreign stabilization force deployment but with ongoing uncertainties.
US-led Board of Peace announces agreement to disarm Hamas and militant groups in Gaza
December 31 surges to 66%16%
On July 30, 2026, President Trump and the Board of Peace announced a historic breakthrough on a roadmap for disarming Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza. This announcement initially raised market optimism for foreign intervention, as it suggested progress toward peacekeeping deployment.
Trump administration announces Gaza peace roadmap including international force deployment
December 31 surges to 51%21%
The Trump-led Board of Peace announced a roadmap for Gaza's future including disarmament of Hamas, humanitarian aid surge, and deployment of an international stabilization force. However, the plan faced delays and no troops entered Gaza immediately, causing mixed market reactions.
US President Trump announces breakthrough deal for Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal
December 31 surges to 65%34%
President Trump announced a deal for Hamas to disarm in phases as Israel withdraws its forces from Gaza, a key condition for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force. This announcement briefly increased market optimism about foreign intervention.
US President Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament plan
December 31 surges to 53%20%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas, a key condition for foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes but also uncertainty about implementation. This caused a significant market price surge.
US announces $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 jumps to 56%13%
The US administration informed Congress it is sending over $206 million for the proposed Gaza peacekeeping force, marking the first significant funding for the stalled plan and signaling determination to press ahead despite political obstacles.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 52%7%
On July 30, US President Donald Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza. While this was a significant political development, it did not include deployment of foreign troops on the ground, keeping market expectations mixed.
Kosovo soldiers arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 52%19%
Kosovo troops arrived in Israel to join the ISF but had not entered Gaza, indicating the force was still staged outside Gaza and no foreign operational deployment on the ground had occurred, maintaining market skepticism about intervention.
Morocco completes troop commitment formalities for Gaza stabilization mission
Morocco finalized its troop commitment to the ISF with the signing of the Participating Country Agreement on July 16 and continued preparations for deployment, including training and operational planning, signaling progress toward actual foreign troop presence in Gaza.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and militant groups in Gaza
September 30 surges to 37%16%
Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement for Hamas and other groups to disarm, a key step for foreign force deployment, briefly boosting market optimism about international intervention in Gaza.
US-brokered deal allows limited evacuation via Rafah border crossing
December 31 rises to 34%1%
The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt was opened under agreed conditions to allow limited evacuation of foreign nationals, but no foreign military or police forces entered Gaza for operational roles, keeping foreign intervention prospects low.
Lebanese couple returns to shattered home under US-brokered deal with Israel
September 30 plunges to 21%32%
The return of civilians under a US-brokered ceasefire deal indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and stabilization without foreign military deployment in Gaza, reinforcing market expectations against foreign intervention.
Lebanese couple returns to shattered home under US-brokered deal with Israel
December 31 drops to 27%9%
On July 29, reports highlighted civilians returning to devastated homes under a US-brokered agreement, reflecting ongoing political efforts but no foreign military deployment in Gaza. This contributed to market uncertainty and price declines for foreign intervention.
Uganda gives preliminary approval to deploy troops to Gaza peacekeeping mission
December 31 rises to 32%2%
Uganda agreed in principle to contribute military personnel to the international peacekeeping force in Gaza, expanding international commitments but with deployment timing still uncertain, supporting cautious market optimism.
Experts say Israel’s approval of limited Gaza force is a calculated political maneuver
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Analysts interpreted Israel's approval of a constrained pilot project for foreign forces in Gaza as a political move to deflect US pressure and fragment Gaza, rather than a genuine transition to peace. This skepticism contributed to market price declines.
Israel confirms framework for international stabilization force deployment in Gaza
Following cabinet approval, Israeli officials confirmed the framework for ISF deployment, emphasizing coordination with the IDF and restrictions on operating areas, which tempered expectations for rapid or large-scale foreign intervention.
Israel’s security cabinet approves legal framework for limited entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Israel’s security cabinet approved a legal framework for the limited entry of the International Stabilization Force into Gaza, allowing up to 200 foreign troops from friendly countries to operate in a humanitarian zone, signaling progress but with operational constraints.
Israel approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Following cabinet approval, Israel authorized the ISF deployment near Rafah, coordinating with the IDF and maintaining control over much of Gaza, signaling progress but with operational constraints that tempered market optimism.
Israeli cabinet approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%4%
Israel’s Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the ISF to Gaza as part of the US President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, authorizing establishment of ISF headquarters near Rafah and preparations for deployment. This formal approval was a major milestone but actual deployment remained pending.
Israeli cabinet approves limited Gaza force as Netanyahu prepares for US talks
Israeli cabinet's approval of a constrained pilot project for foreign security forces in Gaza was seen as a maneuver to deflect US pressure and fragment Gaza, with deployment limited to a narrow area and contingent on disarmament progress.
Israel transfers 430 Gaza Flotilla activists after Mediterranean interception
December 31 dips to 33%1%
Israeli forces intercepted and detained 430 activists from a Gaza-bound aid convoy at sea, transferring them to Israel. This event highlighted Israel's strict control over Gaza's access points and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza territory.
International Stabilization Force builds up troops along Gaza border, no entry yet
September 30 plunges to 20%33%
Reports emerged of the US-led International Stabilization Force building up troops along the Gaza border in preparation for deployment, but no foreign troops had entered Gaza, sustaining market skepticism about imminent intervention.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Egypt called on the US to expedite the deployment of the international stabilization force and facilitate humanitarian aid delivery, signaling regional support and pressure for foreign intervention in Gaza.
Moroccan Officers Tour Gaza Ahead of Multinational Force Deployment
August 31 surges to 26%20%
Moroccan military officers conducted a field visit to Gaza in preparation for their participation in the International Stabilization Force, signaling operational progress and increasing market confidence in foreign intervention.
Israeli security cabinet approves legal framework for ISF with conditions
December 31 rises to 54%1%
The cabinet approved legal measures for ISF entry, requiring specific approval from Netanyahu and ministers, with Israel maintaining control over large parts of Gaza until Hamas disarms.
Israel confirms limited entry of International Stabilization Force with 200 troops
December 31 plunges to 16%37%
Israeli security cabinet voted to approve limited entry of the ISF, including 200 troops from friendly countries such as Morocco and Uganda, into Gaza's humanitarian zones pending further approvals.
UN condemns obstruction of humanitarian aid by Gaza authorities
December 31 drops to 27%7%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemned the obstruction of humanitarian operations by Gaza's de facto authorities, highlighting ongoing internal challenges but no foreign military or police deployment. This contributed to the market's decline in the probability of foreign intervention.
Israel approves legal framework for Gaza force with some 200 troops from friendly countries
December 31 drops to 53%13%
Israeli security cabinet gave initial approval for the International Stabilization Force to enter Gaza and operate in humanitarian zones upon approval from top Israeli officials, with deployment contingent on disarmament progress and Israeli control of other areas.
Israel’s approval of limited Gaza force a calculated manoeuvre, experts say
December 31 drops to 27%6%
Experts analyzed Israel's approval of a constrained pilot project for foreign security forces in Gaza as a political move to deflect US pressure and fragment Gaza, casting doubt on the scale and impact of foreign intervention.
Israel grants permission for peacekeeping troops to operate in Gaza areas outside Israeli control
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Israel granted permission for peacekeeping troops to operate in Gaza areas beyond Israeli control, advancing the US-backed peace plan and increasing market confidence in foreign intervention prospects.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves multinational Board of Peace force deployment in Gaza
December 31 rises to 30%3%
The Israeli Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force in Gaza, authorizing the establishment of the ISF headquarters near Rafah and paving the way for preparations to deploy the mission. This was a significant political endorsement but did not yet result in physical troop deployment.
Israeli media reports preparations for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza have begun
December 31 jumps to 34%7%
Israeli media reported that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had started, signaling progress toward physical foreign intervention despite ongoing political and security challenges.
Egyptian Red Crescent delivers 243rd aid convoy to Gaza with over 2,673 tons of supplies
The Egyptian Red Crescent sent a large humanitarian convoy to Gaza, reflecting ongoing aid efforts amid the conflict but not constituting foreign military intervention, thus having limited direct impact on market prices for foreign operational deployment.
Israeli security cabinet approves limited Gaza force as a calculated political manoeuvre
December 31 plunges to 28%34%
Experts analyzed Israel's approval of a constrained pilot project allowing foreign security forces into a narrow area of Gaza, interpreting it as a political move to deflect US pressure and fragment Gaza rather than a genuine peace transition.
Israeli cabinet gives initial approval for limited ISF deployment with 200 troops
September 30 plunges to 21%32%
The Israeli security cabinet voted to approve limited entry of the ISF under the Board of Peace plan, including 200 troops from friendly countries, but deployment required further approvals. This reinforced the market's temporary optimism about foreign intervention.
Israeli cabinet approves limited entry of 200 international troops to Gaza
December 31 rises to 28%1%
The Israeli cabinet gave initial approval for the entry of about 200 troops from friendly countries as part of the International Stabilization Force, marking a formal step toward foreign intervention. Despite approval, actual deployment remained pending further authorization, maintaining market uncertainty.
Israel confirms multinational security force to enter Gaza under US peace plan
December 31 rises to 35%2%
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel will allow a multinational security force, including troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco, to enter Gaza as part of the US-backed peace plan. This announcement increased market expectations but actual deployment remained pending.
Israel to allow international force into Gaza, official says
An official statement indicated Israel's willingness to allow an international force into Gaza, raising market hopes for foreign intervention. However, no actual deployment occurred within the analysis window, limiting impact on market prices.
Uganda parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza peacekeeping mission
December 31 rises to 26%1%
Uganda's parliament gave preliminary approval to send troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a concrete commitment from a contributing country and supporting the peace plan's implementation.
Egyptian aid convoy enters Gaza through Rafah crossing amid ongoing humanitarian efforts
Egypt continued delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza through the Rafah crossing, which remained under Egyptian and Israeli control, highlighting ongoing humanitarian support but no foreign military intervention on the ground.
Israeli cabinet approves limited deployment of foreign troops into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 35%5%
Israel's security cabinet approved a limited deployment of up to 200 foreign troops into Gaza, marking a cautious but concrete step toward foreign operational presence, though limited in scope and without immediate deployment.
Israel to allow multinational security force to enter Gaza, official says
December 31 dips to 34%2%
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel would permit a multinational security force, including troops from Uganda and Morocco, to deploy in Gaza areas not under Israeli control. This announcement contributed to market fluctuations reflecting cautious optimism.
Israel to allow multinational security forces into Gaza as part of US peace plan
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel would permit multinational security forces, including 200 personnel from countries like Uganda and Morocco, to enter Gaza in areas not under Israeli control, pending individual approvals. This reinforced the market's positive reaction to the prospect of foreign intervention.
Israel approves entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 rises to 37%3%
Israel's security cabinet approved the entry of the International Stabilization Force into Gaza, envisioning an initial deployment of up to 200 troops from countries including Kosovo, Albania, Morocco, and Kazakhstan. This was a critical step toward foreign intervention but actual deployment was pending.
Israeli security cabinet approves deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 surges to 47%27%
The Israeli cabinet approved the deployment of about 200 troops from friendly countries as part of the International Stabilization Force under the Board of Peace plan, marking a significant step toward foreign intervention in Gaza.
Israel's cabinet approves entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 plunges to 28%22%
Israel's Diplomatic-Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force in Gaza, allowing up to 200 troops from friendly countries to enter areas not under Israeli control. This approval was a significant policy milestone but actual troop deployment remained pending individual approvals and logistical preparations.
Board of Peace praises Israel’s approval for International Stabilization Force deployment
December 31 jumps to 35%5%
The Board of Peace welcomed Israel’s cabinet approval for ISF deployment, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing Gaza and supporting demilitarization, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Israel's cabinet approves limited entry of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 41%9%
The Israeli security cabinet voted to approve the limited entry of the International Stabilization Force, including about 200 troops from friendly countries, to operate in a pilot humanitarian zone in Gaza. This official approval raised market optimism about foreign intervention but with constraints on deployment scope.
Israel approves peacekeeping force to operate outside Israeli-controlled Gaza areas
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Israel granted permission for peacekeeping troops to operate in areas outside Israeli control in Gaza, including troops from Morocco and Indonesia, as part of Trump's peace plan. This approval was a key step toward foreign intervention but did not yet involve troops entering Gaza territory, maintaining cautious market optimism.
Uganda receives formal request to contribute troops to Gaza stabilization force
US President Donald Trump formally requested Uganda to contribute troops to the multinational International Stabilization Force in Gaza, indicating international support and troop commitments for the mission.
Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Letting International Force Enter Gaza Areas Beyond Israeli Control
Israel's security cabinet approved allowing a proposed international force for Gaza to enter parts of the enclave not under Israeli control, a key step toward foreign operational presence though actual entry had not yet occurred.
Uganda formally approves deployment of troops to Gaza for peace mission
December 31 rises to 35%4%
Uganda's parliament authorized deployment of a UPDF contingent to Gaza as part of the multinational ISF, marking concrete troop commitments from foreign states.
Israeli security cabinet approves legal framework for international force entry into Gaza
December 31 drops to 27%7%
Israel's security cabinet approved a legal framework allowing a limited international stabilization force to enter Gaza areas not under Israeli control, a key step toward foreign intervention. However, deployment required further approvals and coordination, leaving timing uncertain and tempering market optimism.
Board of Peace force prepares for Gaza deployment amid Israeli approval
December 31 jumps to 35%8%
The Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force continued preparations for deployment in Gaza, including logistics and establishing a semi-military camp, signaling operational readiness following Israeli cabinet approval.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves international force entry into Gaza areas beyond Israeli control
December 31 jumps to 33%7%
Israel's security cabinet approved allowing a proposed international force for Gaza to enter parts of the enclave not under Israeli control, signaling official permission for foreign peacekeepers but without a clear deployment timeline, causing mixed market reactions.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 33%6%
Israel's security cabinet approved a legal framework allowing the limited entry of the International Stabilization Force into Gaza, authorizing deployment of about 200 troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco. This was a critical political step but actual deployment remained pending individual approvals and Hamas disarmament.
Israel's Diplomatic-Security Cabinet approves entry of multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza
December 31 surges to 59%28%
Israel's cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza despite opposition from National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. This official approval increased the likelihood of foreign personnel entering Gaza for operational roles, boosting market prices.
Israel to allow international force into Gaza, official says
December 31 surges to 62%29%
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel will allow a multinational security force, including troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco, to enter Gaza under the US-backed peace plan, though timing remains unclear.
Israeli cabinet approves entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 rises to 34%1%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework allowing an international stabilization force to enter selected parts of Gaza under the US-backed postwar plan, envisioning an initial deployment of about 200 troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco. This was a critical step toward foreign intervention but actual deployment remained pending further approvals.
Board of Peace envoy welcomes Israel’s approval for peacekeeping troops in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%3%
Nickolay Mladenov, envoy for the Board of Peace, welcomed Israel’s decision to allow peacekeeping troops from countries including Morocco and Indonesia to operate in Gaza areas outside Israeli control, supporting demilitarization and transition to Palestinian administration. This boosted market optimism for foreign intervention.
Israel’s security cabinet approves legal framework for international force entry into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 36%6%
Israel approved a legal framework allowing a multinational International Stabilization Force (ISF) to enter Gaza in coordination with the IDF, but deployment remained subject to further approvals. This official approval initially raised market optimism about foreign intervention.
Israel approves limited international peacekeeping force in Gaza humanitarian zones
December 31 dips to 30%4%
Israel's security cabinet approved a legal framework for a limited entry of the International Stabilization Force into Gaza's humanitarian zones, signaling progress but with strict Israeli control and no full withdrawal. This partial approval caused mixed market reactions reflecting uncertainty about full foreign deployment.
Israeli government cabinet approves entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 35%7%
Israel's cabinet approved the entry of forces from the ISF into Gaza, envisioning an initial deployment of up to 200 troops with Israeli approval. This was a significant step toward actual foreign intervention under the US-backed peace plan, causing a notable market price increase.
Israel grants permission for peacekeeping troops to operate in Gaza outside Israeli control
December 31 jumps to 35%5%
Israel granted permission for peacekeeping troops, including from Morocco and Indonesia, to operate in areas outside Israeli control in Gaza, marking a cautious but concrete step toward foreign operational presence, though limited in scope and pending further approvals.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves allowing international force into Gaza areas beyond Israeli control
December 31 jumps to 33%7%
On July 26, Israel's security cabinet approved a plan allowing a proposed international force to enter parts of Gaza not under Israeli control, marking a significant step toward foreign operational presence. However, no specific timeline for deployment was given, maintaining market uncertainty.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Egypt called on the US to expedite the deployment of the international stabilization force in Gaza and facilitate humanitarian aid, signaling regional support and pressure for foreign intervention.
Israel approves legal framework for Gaza force with 200 troops from friendly countries
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Israel's cabinet gave initial approval for the International Stabilization Force to enter Gaza with about 200 troops from countries friendly to Israel, but deployment required further approval from top ministers. This cautious step tempered market expectations.
Morocco signs agreement to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 32%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, signaling international commitment to the peacekeeping mission and raising expectations for deployment.
Israel’s security cabinet authorizes multinational stabilization force deployment to Gaza
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israel approved a legal framework for deploying a multinational stabilization force under the US-backed Board of Peace and UN Resolution 2803, with Morocco and other countries pledging personnel to monitor ceasefire and support governance. This raised market expectations for foreign intervention but did not confirm physical entry.
Israel approves limited entry of international peacekeeping force into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 33%7%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework allowing a limited deployment of up to 200 foreign troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco into Gaza areas not under Israeli control. This cautious approval raised market expectations slightly but did not indicate a full-scale foreign intervention.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves ISF entry beyond Israeli-controlled zones in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The Israeli Security Cabinet authorized the ISF to enter Gaza areas beyond Israeli control, signaling progress in the peace plan but maintaining Israeli military control over key zones, which tempered market enthusiasm.
Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya killed in Israeli airstrike in Deir al-Balah
September 30 plunges to 21%32%
On July 26, Israeli forces killed senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya in an airstrike, continuing military operations within Gaza. This underscored ongoing conflict without foreign intervention, contributing to market declines in intervention probability.
Israeli cabinet approves legal framework for limited ISF deployment in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 45%13%
Israel's cabinet approved the legal framework allowing a limited ISF contingent of roughly 200 personnel from friendly countries, including Uganda and Morocco, to enter Gaza in areas not under Israeli control. However, actual deployment remained subject to final approval by Israeli leadership, reflecting cautious progress amid political deadlock.
Israel grants immunity and legal framework for ISF operations in Gaza
December 31 rises to 34%1%
Israel’s cabinet approved granting immunity to ISF members and the legal framework for their operations in Gaza, requiring coordination with the IDF and approval from top Israeli officials for troop entries. This was a key policy step enabling potential foreign intervention.
Israel to allow multinational security force to enter Gaza under US peace plan
December 31 jumps to 33%7%
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel would allow a multinational security force, including 200 members from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco, to deploy in Gaza areas not under Israeli control, pending individual Israeli approvals. This was a key step in operationalizing the international stabilization force but did not yet involve large-scale troop deployment.
Israeli cabinet approves limited entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
The Israeli security cabinet voted to approve the limited entry of the multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza, including 200 troops from friendly countries, signaling initial official acceptance but with operational constraints. This raised market hopes for foreign intervention but with uncertainty about scale and timing.
Israeli cabinet approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 surges to 51%21%
Israel's security cabinet approved the deployment of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to Gaza as part of the US President Donald Trump's peace plan. The approval allowed peacekeeping troops to operate in areas outside Israeli control, a critical step towards foreign intervention, though actual deployment remained pending.
Israel grants limited approval for peacekeeping troops outside Israeli control in Gaza
December 31 dips to 31%3%
Israel's security cabinet approved limited entry of the International Stabilization Force to operate in areas outside Israeli control, a key step in the US-backed peace plan. However, the force was restricted and Israel maintained control over significant parts of Gaza, tempering expectations of full foreign intervention.
Israel approves future deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 27%4%
The Israeli cabinet's approval of the ISF's future deployment marked a significant milestone in the peace plan, with expectations of initial troop deployment and coordination with Israeli forces.
Egyptian aid convoy enters Gaza via Rafah crossing amid ongoing humanitarian efforts
On July 26, Egypt sent its 242nd humanitarian aid convoy into Gaza through the Rafah crossing, supporting relief efforts as part of the broader peace plan. This highlighted ongoing international involvement in Gaza's stabilization, though not constituting foreign military intervention on the ground.
Israeli official confirms cabinet approval of legal framework for Gaza force with 200 troops
December 31 surges to 66%16%
An Israeli official confirmed cabinet approval of the legal framework for the International Stabilization Force, including about 200 troops from friendly countries, marking a key milestone toward actual foreign military presence in Gaza.
Israeli security cabinet approves limited entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 rises to 33%3%
Israel's security cabinet approved the limited deployment of up to 200 foreign troops into Gaza, marking a cautious but concrete step toward foreign operational presence, though limited in scope and restricted to humanitarian zones.
Egypt pushes to accelerate deployment of Gaza stabilization force
December 31 rises to 31%1%
Egypt, working with the US and regional partners, pushed to accelerate the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza to prevent ceasefire collapse and support postwar governance. Egypt also began constructing military facilities near its border to support the potential deployment, indicating regional backing but no immediate troop entry.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilisation force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%3%
Egypt called on the United States to expedite the deployment of an international stabilisation force in Gaza, emphasizing the importance of rapid deployment and humanitarian aid delivery, reflecting diplomatic pressure to advance the peacekeeping mission.
Moroccan military officers enter Gaza for force deployment preparations
December 31 dips to 34%1%
Around 30 Moroccan military officers entered Gaza for the first time to conduct field tours in preparation for the multinational force deployment, marking a significant step toward operational readiness but not full deployment.
Around 30 Moroccan military officers enter Gaza for force deployment preparations
December 31 rises to 35%3%
Approximately 30 Moroccan military officers entered Gaza on a field tour as part of preparations for the multinational force expected to operate in Gaza, signaling progress in operational planning though no full deployment yet.
Moroccan and Kosovo contingents visit Gaza in preparation for deployment
Moroccan and Kosovo contingents of the International Stabilization Force conducted a visit to Gaza, signaling operational preparations but no permanent deployment yet. This indicated progress but maintained uncertainty about actual foreign boots on the ground.
Morocco officially joins International Stabilization Force for Gaza
Morocco announced its participation in the International Stabilization Force, pledging to send senior military officers and personnel to support humanitarian aid and training in Gaza. This was a significant step in international commitments but did not yet involve physical entry into Gaza.
Palestinian sources allege Israel uses napalm-like weapons in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Reports emerged that Israel resumed using weapons causing severe burns in Gaza, including alleged napalm-type missiles, raising tensions but not involving foreign forces entering Gaza. This maintained the status quo of Israeli military operations without foreign intervention, contributing to market uncertainty.
Five countries commit troops to Gaza international security force, commander says
Five countries, including Indonesia and Kosovo, committed troops to the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, indicating multinational support for the peace plan but with deployment still pending and limited to humanitarian zones.
Morocco signs historic deal to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, marking a significant diplomatic milestone and raising market expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza.
Report: US struggles to deploy foreign peacekeepers in Gaza amid Israeli resistance
December 31 drops to 25%5%
Reports indicated that the US-led International Stabilization Force faced delays and Israeli government reluctance to approve foreign troop deployments inside Gaza, with no foreign military personnel officially entering Gaza by the market's resolution deadline, driving the price down to 25%.
Netanyahu opposes Turkish and Qatari troops in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%7%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly rejected deployment of Turkish and Qatari troops in Gaza, reflecting political resistance to certain foreign forces entering Gaza and complicating international force composition, dampening market optimism.
UN warns of increased risks to Gaza civilians as Israeli forces expand control
December 31 dips to 28%2%
The UN reported Israeli forces expanding control in Gaza, causing civilian displacement but no foreign operational deployment by other states or international institutions was reported, supporting the market's low probability for foreign intervention.
UN warns of expanding Israeli control in Gaza, no foreign operational deployment
December 31 drops to 30%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces expanding control in Gaza with no indication of foreign police or military personnel from other states or international institutions entering Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced the market's view that qualifying foreign intervention had not occurred.
Hamas agrees to facilitate peacekeeping force and administrative transition in Gaza
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Hamas representatives met with Egyptian officials and expressed willingness to facilitate the work of peacekeeping forces and transfer administrative control to a technocratic council, but insisted on non-interference, leaving operational deployment uncertain.
Hamas resigns civil administration under Gaza peace plan, stalling political progress
December 31 drops to 30%5%
On July 17, Hamas announced resignation of its civil administration, breaking political limbo but also stalling progress on peace plans that might have enabled foreign stabilization forces, further reducing chances of foreign intervention.
UN condemns obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza by de facto authorities
December 31 rises to 35%4%
The UN condemned armed personnel affiliated with Gaza's de facto authorities for disrupting humanitarian aid, highlighting worsening conditions but no foreign military intervention on the ground. This maintained the market's low probability for foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza without foreign intervention
December 31 rises to 35%1%
The UN's July 16 humanitarian situation report detailed continued hostilities, displacement, and limited humanitarian access in Gaza, with no mention of foreign military or police forces entering Gaza for operational roles. This absence of foreign intervention news contributed to the market's low probability for such an event by year-end.
UN humanitarian report highlights ongoing hostilities and no foreign operational deployment in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 35%5%
The UN humanitarian report detailed continued hostilities and worsening conditions in Gaza but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel operating on the ground. This reinforced market skepticism, pushing prices to a low point before a slight recovery.
Morocco signs Participating Country Agreement to join International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 34%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, reinforcing the multinational nature of the planned foreign force and raising market expectations for deployment, though no troops had entered Gaza yet.
Morocco signs agreement to join International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%1%
Morocco officially agreed to participate in the ISF for Gaza, signaling international intent to stabilize the region. However, no reports confirmed Moroccan or other foreign personnel physically entering Gaza for operational roles, limiting market confidence in actual intervention.
UN reports worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 30%5%
The UN highlighted deteriorating humanitarian conditions and ongoing military activity in Gaza, with no mention of foreign operational forces entering Gaza, supporting the market's decline in intervention probability.
US accelerates formation of International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 dips to 33%1%
The United States launched a rapid diplomatic and operational effort to assemble the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, with initial troop arrivals expected in early 2026. However, training and deployment were still in early stages, and no foreign personnel had yet entered Gaza, contributing to market skepticism and a further price decline.
Morocco signs on to international military stabilization force in post-war Gaza
Morocco officially signed an agreement to participate in the ISF for Gaza, reinforcing multinational efforts to stabilize the region but with no immediate troop deployment inside Gaza due to pending legal and political steps.
Morocco signs agreement with Board of Peace to join Gaza international force
December 31 dips to 30%4%
Morocco's military signed a legal framework agreement with the Board of Peace to participate in the Gaza stabilization force, reflecting commitment to peace efforts. However, no deployment of troops into Gaza occurred, keeping the market's outlook cautious.
Morocco signs agreement to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Morocco officially signed on to join the multinational stabilization force for Gaza, signaling international commitment to the mission. However, the force remained based in Israel with no deployment into Gaza, sustaining market skepticism about actual foreign intervention on Gaza soil by the deadline.
UN Deputy Special Coordinator highlights dire humanitarian situation in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%1%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process emphasized the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities, with no foreign military or peacekeeping personnel deployed on the ground, reinforcing market expectations of no foreign intervention.
Israeli attack on Gaza funeral kills at least 8
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Israeli forces attacked a funeral in Gaza, killing civilians and continuing hostilities without any foreign peacekeeping or military personnel entering Gaza, reinforcing the market's downward price movement.
Morocco signs historic deal to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 jumps to 35%5%
Morocco formalized its participation in the International Stabilization Force by signing the Participating Country Agreement, marking a significant diplomatic milestone and raising market expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza, though no troops had yet entered Gaza.
UN humanitarian report highlights dire situation in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities
December 31 drops to 30%5%
The UN reported continued hostilities and humanitarian challenges in Gaza without any mention of foreign police, military, or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza for operational roles. This supported the market's low probability of foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing humanitarian crisis and no foreign peacekeeping deployment in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%2%
The UN humanitarian situation report detailed continued hostilities and worsening conditions in Gaza but confirmed no deployment of foreign police, military, or peacekeeping forces on the ground. This reinforced market expectations of no foreign intervention, stabilizing the price at 33-35%.
Morocco's participation in Gaza stabilization force confirmed amid ongoing peace talks
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Reports confirmed Morocco's role in the international stabilization force and ongoing truce talks in Cairo, but no evidence of physical deployment of foreign operational personnel in Gaza emerged, maintaining market skepticism and low price levels.
UN warns of increased risks to civilians as Israeli forces expand control in Gaza
The UN reported Israeli forces expanding control within Gaza, causing civilian displacement and destruction, but no mention of foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza for operational roles, supporting the market's low probability of foreign intervention.
UN reports continued hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported ongoing hostilities and worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza, with no mention of foreign operational forces entering Gaza territory, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Morocco formalizes Gaza security deployment agreement, advancing stabilization plans
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Morocco signed the implementation agreement to deploy military, police, and humanitarian personnel under the International Stabilization Force, moving closer to actual deployment inside Gaza. This progress was positive but did not confirm immediate boots on Gaza ground, keeping market sentiment cautious.
Morocco signs Participating Country Agreement with International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Morocco formalized its troop commitment to the ISF, including deployment of officers and establishment of a field hospital in Gaza, advancing operational preparations for foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing humanitarian crisis and no foreign operational deployment in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The UN humanitarian report detailed worsening conditions and ongoing hostilities in Gaza but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza for operational roles, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Morocco signs agreement to join International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 32%6%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, reinforcing the multinational nature of the planned foreign force and raising market expectations for deployment.
UN humanitarian snapshot confirms ongoing Gaza crisis without foreign military presence
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The UN's July 15 humanitarian snapshot reiterated the ongoing humanitarian crisis and military activity in Gaza but did not report any foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza, maintaining market sentiment against foreign intervention.
UN condemns obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemned actions by Gaza authorities that endangered humanitarian workers and disrupted aid delivery, highlighting the continued instability and lack of foreign peacekeeping presence on the ground in Gaza.
UN reports continued hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza without foreign intervention
The UN humanitarian report detailed ongoing hostilities, displacement, and limited humanitarian access in Gaza but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza territory. This maintained market skepticism and price stability at a low level.
UN Security Council discusses Middle East peace process amid Gaza ceasefire challenges
The Security Council's open debate underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts and obstacles to peace, including Hamas' refusal to decommission weapons, but no operational foreign deployments were reported, sustaining market doubts about foreign intervention on the ground.
Hamas announces resignation of Gaza civil administration under peace plan
Hamas announced the resignation of its civil administration in Gaza as part of a US-backed peace plan phase, reflecting political shifts but no foreign military or police deployment into Gaza, maintaining the market's downward trend.
US plans to send international stabilization force to Gaza in early 2026
December 31 drops to 30%12%
US officials revealed plans for a multinational stabilization force to deploy in Gaza as part of the second phase of the Trump administration's peace plan. The force would secure Gaza and support reconstruction but was still in planning stages, contributing to market fluctuations.
UN humanitarian report highlights Gaza crisis without foreign intervention
December 31 dips to 33%1%
The UN humanitarian situation report detailed ongoing displacement, limited aid access, and infrastructure damage in Gaza but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This absence of foreign operational presence contributed to the market's downward price movement.
Israeli military launches major ground offensive in Gaza City
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Israel initiated a significant ground operation inside Gaza City, underscoring ongoing hostilities and the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground, which contributed to market skepticism about foreign intervention occurring by the deadline.
Morocco signs historic deal with Israel to deploy troops in Gaza under Abraham Accords framework
December 31 dips to 32%2%
Morocco became the first Arab state to formally commit military personnel and police to the Gaza ISF, marking a significant diplomatic and military milestone but with deployment preparations ongoing and no immediate entry into Gaza.
UN Security Council discusses Gaza ceasefire and transitional governance without foreign troop deployment
The Security Council held debates on Gaza’s ceasefire and governance plans, including international stabilization forces, but no deployment of foreign personnel on the ground in Gaza was confirmed, maintaining market uncertainty.
Morocco signs historic deal to deploy troops in Gaza under Abraham Accords framework
December 31 rises to 35%1%
Morocco formalized its commitment to deploy military and police personnel, including a field hospital, as part of the Gaza International Stabilization Force. While this marked a milestone, deployment was expected to be gradual, with initial training outside Gaza, sustaining market doubts about immediate foreign intervention on Gaza soil.
UN and international bodies report no foreign operational deployment in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
UN reports and international monitoring confirmed the absence of officially acknowledged foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel physically operating within Gaza, maintaining the market's downward price trend.
Morocco signs agreement to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
Morocco formalized its participation in the multinational stabilization mission for Gaza by signing a legal framework agreement, signaling commitment but with no immediate troop deployment inside Gaza, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
UN reports dire humanitarian situation in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities
The UN highlighted worsening humanitarian conditions and ongoing military activity in Gaza but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza for operational roles, reinforcing the market's downward price trend.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza without foreign operational deployment
The UN humanitarian report detailed continued conflict and worsening conditions in Gaza but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza for operational roles, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Morocco commits troops to International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
Morocco signed an agreement to contribute 400 troops to the US-led multinational stabilization force in Gaza, but deployment was planned and not yet realized on the ground, contributing to continued market uncertainty and price decline.
Morocco formalizes troop commitment to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 drops to 31%11%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the International Stabilization Force, becoming the first Arab and African nation to commit troops, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but still short of deployment.
Morocco formalizes participation in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 dips to 30%4%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the multinational stabilization force, including establishing a military field hospital. Despite formal commitments, troops remained in Israel for training, with no deployment into Gaza, reflecting ongoing delays and uncertainty.
Board of Peace plans pilot humanitarian zone in Gaza but lacks green light for troop deployment
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The Board of Peace announced plans for a pilot humanitarian zone in southern Gaza to be secured by ISF troops, but Israeli legal and political approvals for foreign soldiers entering Gaza remained pending, contributing to market skepticism and price decline to 30%.
Morocco signs legal framework to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 34%3%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF with a legal agreement, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force, though deployment inside Gaza remains pending, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
UN warns of increased risks to civilians as Israeli forces expand control in Gaza
December 31 dips to 33%1%
The UN highlighted Israeli forces' expansion in Gaza and the resulting civilian risks, but no foreign forces from other states or international institutions were reported entering Gaza for operational roles, maintaining market skepticism.
Report: US struggles to deploy foreign Gaza peacekeepers amid political delays
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Reports indicated that the US-led Board of Peace was struggling to deploy pledged foreign peacekeepers to Gaza due to political reluctance from Israel and delays in signing Status of Forces Agreements. This stalled deployment contributed to the market's decline in probability for foreign intervention by the deadline.
Israeli military strikes police positions in North Gaza causing fatalities
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Israeli strikes on police positions in Gaza resulted in fatalities amid ongoing conflict, with no reports of foreign operational forces entering Gaza, maintaining the market's negative outlook on foreign intervention.
UN Security Council authorizes International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 42%1%
The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2803 endorsing the establishment of a temporary international stabilization force in Gaza, providing a legal mandate and encouraging troop contributions. This formal backing increased market confidence in the likelihood of foreign intervention.
No foreign troops enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans, legal hurdles remain
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Despite the arrival of some foreign troops in Israel, no official deployment into Gaza occurred due to incomplete legal and political approvals. This reinforced market expectations that foreign intervention on the ground in Gaza would not happen by the end of 2026.
UN condemns obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemned Gaza authorities for obstructing humanitarian aid, underscoring ongoing internal conflict and humanitarian challenges but no foreign military or police presence on the ground in Gaza.
Uganda agrees in principle to deploy personnel to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Reports emerged that Uganda had agreed in principle to contribute personnel to the proposed International Stabilization Force in Gaza, signaling diplomatic progress but no immediate deployment. This news maintained some market optimism but did not reverse the downward trend.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to support the ISF, but the force remained non-operational inside Gaza, reinforcing market expectations that foreign intervention on Gaza soil had not yet occurred.
Board of Peace develops logistics hub in Israel but no Gaza base established
Reports indicated the Board of Peace was building a logistics hub in southern Israel as a staging ground for the ISF, but no construction had begun on a permanent base inside Gaza, with no timeline for troop deployment into Gaza. This continued the pattern of delays and uncertainty.
Morocco signs agreement to join international stabilization force for Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Morocco officially agreed to participate in the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling international plans for foreign operational presence. However, no actual deployment into Gaza territory occurred by mid-July, limiting immediate market impact.
Board of Peace endorses U.S.-led Comprehensive Plan for Gaza stabilization
December 31 drops to 42%6%
The Board of Peace, supported by the EU and international partners, endorsed a 20-point plan for Gaza's stabilization and reconstruction, including an International Stabilization Force. However, no deployment of foreign personnel on the ground was reported by this date, maintaining market skepticism.
US and Israel continue strikes amid regional tensions
December 31 dips to 32%2%
Updates on US-Israel military actions related to Iran and Gaza highlighted ongoing conflict dynamics but did not report any foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza territory, sustaining market doubts about foreign operational deployment.
Kosovo troops prepare for Gaza peacekeeping mission under Board of Peace
December 31 surges to 66%39%
Soldiers from Kosovo visited a military base in southern Israel as part of preparations to join the International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza, signaling international commitment to the peacekeeping plan. This raised market optimism about foreign intervention prospects.
Soldiers from Kosovo prepare in Israel to join Gaza International Stabilization Force
Troops from Kosovo visited a military base in southern Israel as part of preparations to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling operational readiness but no actual deployment into Gaza yet, tempering market expectations for immediate foreign intervention.
US launches new strikes amid US-Israel war on Iran and Gaza attacks
December 31 drops to 34%14%
The US conducted new strikes related to the US-Israel conflict involving Iran and ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. Despite heightened military activity, no reports confirmed foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza territory, maintaining market skepticism.
Kosovo soldiers arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 52%18%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet. This maintained market skepticism about intervention.
Indonesia and Jordan form intelligence-sharing alliance for Gaza peacekeeping mission
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Indonesia and Jordan announced a joint intelligence-sharing committee to support Indonesia's potential peacekeeping deployment in Gaza, signaling increased diplomatic and operational preparations. This development raised hopes for foreign intervention but did not confirm troop deployment, contributing to market fluctuations.
Israel announces limited reopening of Rafah border crossing under US-brokered ceasefire plan
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Israel agreed to a limited reopening of the Rafah crossing for pedestrian movement under strict Israeli and Egyptian control, with EU supervision, but no foreign military or peacekeeping forces entered Gaza. This move was part of the ceasefire implementation but did not meet the criteria for foreign intervention on the ground.
Israeli security cabinet approves limited entry of International Stabilization Force with 200 troops
December 31 jumps to 42%8%
The Israeli cabinet voted to approve the limited deployment of the ISF, including 200 troops from friendly countries, marking a cautious step toward foreign operational presence in Gaza's humanitarian zones. This raised hopes but also highlighted the limited scope and conditions for deployment, influencing market optimism.
Five countries agree to contribute troops to Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 jumps to 45%11%
Five countries—Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Albania—agreed to contribute troops to a newly proposed International Stabilization Force in Gaza, with Indonesia preparing to deploy up to 8,000 personnel. Despite these commitments, no troops had yet entered Gaza, sustaining market optimism but uncertainty.
Kosovo troops prepare in Israel for Gaza stabilization mission
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Soldiers from Kosovo visited a military base in southern Israel as part of preparations to join the International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza, signaling progress in multinational peacekeeping plans. This raised market expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza.
International peacekeeping force for Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Reports revealed that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This delay reduced expectations of imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
US and Israel conduct strikes amid ongoing conflict involving Gaza and Lebanon
December 31 dips to 32%1%
US and Israeli military actions were reported in the region, including Gaza and Lebanon, but no official deployment of foreign peacekeeping or security forces into Gaza was confirmed. This maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention on the ground.
UN reports dire humanitarian situation in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities
December 31 dips to 32%2%
UN humanitarian reports highlighted worsening conditions and continued hostilities in Gaza, with no indication of foreign peacekeeping forces entering the territory, reinforcing market expectations of no foreign intervention.
US and Israel continue military actions in region, no foreign ground deployment in Gaza
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Reports of US and Israeli military actions in the region, including Gaza and Lebanon, did not include any officially acknowledged foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza territory. This absence of foreign ground intervention contributed to the market's downward price movement.
UN condemns Hamas obstruction of humanitarian aid in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator publicly condemned Hamas for obstructing humanitarian operations in Gaza, highlighting ongoing security and political challenges. This underscored the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israeli UAV strikes target buildings in Gaza City amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle strikes continued targeting Gaza infrastructure, maintaining high conflict levels without foreign intervention on the ground. This sustained military activity without foreign deployment contributed to a further market price drop to 33%.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 52%19%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet.
Morocco signs agreement to join Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 42%6%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF with an agreement signed in Rabat, yet Moroccan troops were still training in Israel and had not entered Gaza, indicating continued delays in deployment.
Israeli Defense Minister praises destruction in Gaza amid ongoing strikes
December 31 rises to 35%1%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz expressed satisfaction with the destruction caused by Israeli military actions in Gaza, underscoring the continuation of unilateral military operations without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, which negatively impacted market optimism for foreign intervention.
Kosovo troops prepare to join International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Soldiers from Kosovo visited a military base in southern Israel as part of preparations to join the US-led International Stabilization Force, signaling progress in multinational peacekeeping plans but no entry into Gaza yet.
Humanitarian operations in Gaza disrupted by armed personnel affiliated with de facto authorities
December 31 dips to 30%4%
Humanitarian aid efforts were forcibly halted by local armed groups, highlighting ongoing insecurity and operational challenges in Gaza, but no foreign military intervention was reported, maintaining market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza.
US conducts new strikes amid US-Israel conflict involving Iran and Gaza attacks
The US launched new military strikes related to the US-Israel conflict involving Iran and ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. Despite heightened military activity, no foreign peacekeeping or security forces entered Gaza, maintaining market skepticism about foreign intervention.
UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemns obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza
The UN condemned armed personnel obstructing humanitarian aid delivery in Gaza, emphasizing the challenging operational environment but no foreign military or police operational deployment was reported inside Gaza.
Israeli UAV strike targets buildings in Gaza City amid ongoing conflict
Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle strikes targeted buildings in Gaza City, continuing military operations without any foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This reinforced market expectations against imminent foreign intervention.
Kosovo soldiers prepare in Israel to join Gaza stabilization force
December 31 surges to 65%31%
Soldiers from Kosovo visited a military base in southern Israel as part of preparations to join the Board of Peace's International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling progress in multinational peacekeeping plans and temporarily boosting market optimism.
Gaza peacekeeping force delayed amid regional instability and logistical setbacks
December 31 dips to 33%1%
Reports revealed significant delays and scaling back of the planned international peacekeeping force, with troops training in Israel but no deployment into Gaza, directly impacting market expectations for foreign intervention.
US struggling to deploy 20 foreign Gaza peacekeepers after pledging 20,000
December 31 drops to 42%8%
The US-led Board of Peace faced significant delays and scaling back in deploying the promised international peacekeeping force to Gaza, with only a small number of troops expected months later and no entry into Gaza yet, dampening market optimism.
International Stabilization Force deployment delayed amid regional instability and logistical setbacks
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Reports revealed that the ISF deployment was significantly scaled back and delayed, with only a small contingent of Moroccan troops expected months later and no immediate entry into Gaza. This dampened market expectations, causing a price drop from 42% to 33%.
International peacekeeping force for Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Reports revealed that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This delay reduced expectations of imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
US struggles to secure commitments for Gaza peacekeeping force amid Iran war
December 31 drops to 42%8%
The US-led Board of Peace faced difficulties securing troop commitments for the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, with Indonesia withdrawing and Morocco's deployment delayed, indicating stalled foreign intervention on the ground in Gaza.
Trump's peace plan envisions 20,000 international peacekeepers for Gaza
December 31 drops to 42%8%
President Trump's plan called for a large multinational force to stabilize Gaza, but initial deployments were slow, with only 10 to 20 troops expected soon and full deployment delayed. This tempered market optimism about near-term foreign intervention.
Hamas announces resignation of Gaza Emergency Committee amid ceasefire conditions
December 31 dips to 48%2%
Hamas declared the resignation of its Gaza Emergency Committee, a step toward transferring authority to a technocratic body under international oversight. This political development was seen as insufficient to trigger foreign military deployment, influencing market sentiment downward.
UN humanitarian report highlights ongoing aid restrictions and casualties in Gaza
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported continued Israeli-imposed access restrictions and casualties in Gaza, with no mention of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This reinforced the market's view that foreign intervention had not occurred.
Moroccan troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Moroccan soldiers arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza but were stationed in Israel near the border and had not entered Gaza. This indicated progress in assembling the force but no foreign boots on the ground in Gaza yet, impacting market sentiment negatively.
International peacekeeping force deployment to Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Reports indicated that the planned multinational International Stabilization Force was significantly scaled back and delayed, with Indonesia suspending talks and Moroccan troops postponed. Troops were to train in Israel before limited operations, reflecting ongoing challenges and reducing near-term intervention likelihood.
US peace plan envisions 20,000 peacekeepers but initial deployments delayed
December 31 drops to 41%9%
President Trump's peace plan for Gaza included a large international peacekeeping force, but initial deployments were delayed with troops training near the border rather than entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
International Gaza peacekeeping force delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Reports highlighted that the planned multinational peacekeeping force for Gaza faced significant delays and scaling back, with Indonesia suspending talks and Moroccan troops postponed. The force was not expected to enter Gaza soon, reducing market confidence in foreign intervention by the deadline.
International Stabilization Force deployment to Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Reports revealed that the planned multinational peacekeeping force for Gaza was significantly scaled back and delayed, with only a small contingent training in Israel and no troops entering Gaza. This news caused a drop in market confidence as the mission struggled to deploy even an initial group of 10 to 20 troops.
US-led International Stabilization Force struggles to deploy initial troops to Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Despite plans for a 20,000-strong peacekeeping force, only a small contingent of 10 to 20 Moroccan troops was expected to deploy months later, training near Gaza's border without entering the territory. Delays and political hurdles dampened market optimism about foreign intervention occurring soon.
UN agency reports on dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN highlighted worsening humanitarian conditions and Israeli advances in Gaza but did not report any foreign operational deployments by non-Israeli or non-Palestinian forces, maintaining the market's negative outlook for foreign intervention.
Trump's peace plan struggles as only 10-20 peacekeepers deployed near Gaza border
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Reports revealed that the International Stabilization Force envisioned by Trump is struggling to deploy more than a small group of 10 to 20 troops who are training near the Israeli border and have not entered Gaza, dampening market expectations for intervention.
Gaza peacekeeping force delayed as international support falters
Reports revealed significant delays and scaling back of the planned international peacekeeping force for Gaza, with only a handful of troops training near the border and no immediate deployment into Gaza, reducing the likelihood of foreign intervention within the timeframe.
Report: International peacekeeping force for Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 plunges to 21%32%
Reports emerged that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent due to regional instability and political reluctance, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This news contributed to a decline in market confidence for foreign intervention by the deadline.
UN humanitarian report highlights dire Gaza conditions but no foreign operational deployments
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN humanitarian report described severe conditions in Gaza and Israeli-imposed access restrictions but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza for operational roles, supporting the market's downward price movement.
Egypt and Hamas discuss implementation of Gaza ceasefire agreement
Egyptian officials met with Hamas representatives in Cairo to discuss the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including administrative control and security arrangements, but no foreign troops were reported entering Gaza for operational roles, maintaining market doubts about foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza without foreign operational intervention
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN highlighted continued hostilities and worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza, with no mention of foreign police or military personnel conducting operational roles on the ground. This contributed to market price decline reflecting doubts about foreign intervention.
US President Donald Trump arrives amid stalled Gaza reconstruction efforts
December 31 dips to 48%2%
On July 9, 2026, US President Donald Trump arrived in the US amid reports that the US-controlled Board of Peace's efforts to advance Gaza reconstruction and security deployments were stalled. This indicated delays in any foreign operational deployment in Gaza, influencing market price declines.
UN warns of expanding Israeli control in Gaza, no foreign operational deployment reported
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN reported Israeli forces expanding control in Gaza and warned of increased risks to civilians, but no foreign peacekeeping or military personnel were reported entering Gaza, reinforcing the market's downward adjustment on foreign intervention likelihood.
Renewed clashes and drone attacks highlight ongoing conflict without foreign intervention
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Hezbollah launched a drone attack killing Israeli soldiers, underscoring regional tensions but no foreign peacekeeping or operational forces entered Gaza. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Israeli airstrikes kill nine Palestinians in Gaza including aid driver
December 31 drops to 42%6%
Israeli military actions continued in Gaza, resulting in civilian casualties including a driver delivering food aid. Despite the humanitarian crisis, no foreign military or police forces from outside Israel or Palestinian entities were reported to have entered Gaza for operational roles, maintaining market skepticism.
Save the Children calls for urgent international intervention amid Gaza child casualties
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Reports of Palestinian children killed by Israeli forces prompted humanitarian organizations to call for urgent international intervention. Despite these calls, no official foreign military or peacekeeping deployment was reported, leading to a market price decline.
US President Trump signals stalled Gaza reconstruction and security deployments
December 31 plunges to 34%16%
Reports on July 9, 2026 indicated that the US-controlled Board of Peace's efforts to advance Gaza reconstruction and security deployments were stalled, signaling delays in any foreign operational deployment in Gaza and influencing market price declines.
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in Gaza despite ceasefire
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Continued Israeli airstrikes killed civilians in Gaza, highlighting ongoing conflict without foreign ground forces entering Gaza. This reinforced market sentiment against foreign operational deployments within the analysis window.
Israeli airstrikes kill Palestinians including aid delivery driver in Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
On July 9, Israeli airstrikes and gunfire killed at least nine Palestinians in Gaza, including a driver delivering food for a U.S. charity. The continuation of Israeli military operations without foreign intervention reinforced market expectations that no foreign operational deployment was imminent.
UN warns of increased risks to civilians as Israeli forces expand control in Gaza
December 31 drops to 43%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, causing displacement and destruction but no foreign intervention by other states or international forces. This heightened conflict risk reduced market confidence in foreign peacekeeping deployment.
Humanitarian groups report worsening conditions amid ongoing Israeli strikes in Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Reports from UN agencies and NGOs highlighted continued Israeli military strikes and severe humanitarian challenges in Gaza, with no indication of foreign peacekeeping or security forces deployment, contributing to market doubts about foreign intervention.
European groups urge EU sanctions on Israel amid Gaza child casualties
December 31 drops to 33%9%
European Coordination of Committees and Associations for Palestine called for EU sanctions on Israel following reports of Palestinian child casualties in Gaza. This heightened international pressure but did not involve foreign forces entering Gaza, leading to further market price decline.
Israeli shelling kills eight Palestinians amid fragile ceasefire in Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%8%
Israeli shelling killed eight Palestinians in Gaza, underscoring the fragile ceasefire and ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Hamas dissolves administrative body in Gaza Strip, transferring authority to technocratic committee
Hamas dissolved its civilian governing body in Gaza, transferring responsibilities to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a technocratic body under international oversight. This political shift was seen as a step toward governance reform but did not involve foreign military presence, maintaining status quo on foreign intervention prospects.
US-led International Stabilization Force struggles to deploy initial troops
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Reports indicated that the ISF, originally planned as a 20,000-strong force, was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent of 10 to 20 troops, with delays attributed to political and security challenges, dampening market optimism for foreign intervention.
Israeli strikes kill eight Palestinians in Gaza amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 plunges to 33%15%
On July 8, Israeli shelling killed eight Palestinians in Gaza, underscoring the fragile ceasefire and ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza
December 31 drops to 42%6%
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported continued hostilities and worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza, with no mention of foreign police or military forces entering Gaza for operational roles. This maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israeli military kills senior Hamas commanders in Gaza strikes
December 31 drops to 42%6%
Israeli forces conducted targeted strikes killing senior Hamas commanders within Gaza, continuing active military operations without any foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza territory. This reinforced the ongoing conflict without foreign intervention qualifying for the market.
Israeli strikes kill senior Hamas commanders amid ongoing Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 42%6%
Israeli military operations continued with targeted strikes killing senior Hamas commanders, underscoring ongoing conflict and reducing likelihood of foreign peacekeeping deployment in the near term.
Palestinian government intensifies presence amid Israeli attacks, no foreign troops enter Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
The Palestinian Prime Minister directed increased government activity to support citizens amid Israeli attacks, but no reports indicated foreign military or police forces entering Gaza for operational roles, maintaining market doubts about foreign intervention.
Gaza endures ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis amid no foreign intervention
December 31 drops to 43%5%
Reports from humanitarian agencies highlighted continued hostilities and worsening conditions in Gaza without any foreign military or police forces operating on the ground. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention occurring within the timeframe.
UN reports dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 42%6%
The UN highlighted worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza due to ongoing Israeli military advances and enforcement of buffer zones, underscoring the absence of foreign operational deployments despite international concern.
Belgian Foreign Minister moves toward recognizing Palestinian statehood
Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot announced steps toward recognizing Palestinian statehood, signaling increased international diplomatic engagement but not involving foreign military deployment in Gaza. This diplomatic development contributed to market uncertainty but did not indicate foreign intervention on the ground.
Congress criticizes Indian government silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Indian political leaders publicly criticized the government for its silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, highlighting international political tensions but not indicating any foreign military deployment in Gaza. This contributed to a minor price recovery reflecting hopes for increased international pressure.
Hamas announces dissolution of its civilian administration under Gaza peace plan
December 31 dips to 45%3%
On July 6, Hamas announced the dissolution of its civilian administration in Gaza, transferring governance to a technocratic committee as part of the US-backed peace plan. This political shift was a key step in the peace process but did not involve foreign troops entering Gaza, maintaining market uncertainty about foreign intervention.
Indian opposition criticizes Modi government’s silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Indian Congress leaders publicly condemned Prime Minister Modi's silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, highlighting international diplomatic tensions but no direct foreign military intervention in Gaza. This political criticism reflected broader international concern but did not affect the likelihood of foreign forces entering Gaza.
Congress criticizes Modi's silence on Gaza amid foreign policy debate
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Indian opposition criticized Prime Minister Modi for his silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, reflecting international political tensions but no indication of foreign forces entering Gaza. This contributed to market uncertainty and a price drop.
Hamas dissolves Gaza government to transfer power to UN-backed technocratic committee
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Hamas announced it had dissolved its government in Gaza and was preparing to transfer civil authority to a UN-backed technocratic body as part of the US-brokered ceasefire deal. This move was seen as a step towards peace and reconstruction but did not include disarmament, and Israel dismissed it as cosmetic, reducing expectations of foreign operational intervention.
Indian opposition criticizes Modi's silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Indian Congress leaders publicly criticized Prime Minister Modi for his silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, reflecting diplomatic tensions but no indication of foreign operational intervention in Gaza. This political statement did not affect the likelihood of foreign forces entering Gaza.
Hamas announces resignation of Gaza civil administration under peace plan
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Hamas announced the resignation of its civil administration, signaling a shift in Gaza's governance but not involving foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This political development influenced market perceptions by reducing the likelihood of imminent foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing Israeli military control and expansion in Gaza with no foreign ground forces
December 31 drops to 42%6%
UN reports detailed Israeli advances and control expansions in Gaza, including the use of incendiary munitions and buffer zone enforcement, with no mention of foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza. This reinforced market expectations against foreign intervention.
Hamas announces dissolution of Gaza governing body ahead of power transfer
Hamas announced the dissolution of its emergency governing committee in Gaza, coordinating with intermediaries to transfer administration to a technocratic National Committee. However, Hamas personnel remained in place and disarmament was not mentioned, maintaining uncertainty about foreign force deployment.
India criticized for silence on Gaza conflict amid foreign policy scrutiny
Indian opposition criticized Prime Minister Modi for silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, reflecting international diplomatic tensions but no direct foreign military intervention in Gaza, thus not affecting the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza.
Indian opposition criticizes government silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Indian political leaders publicly criticized the government for its silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, highlighting international political tensions but no foreign military deployment in Gaza.
Hamas dissolves Gaza civilian administration, transfers authority to technocratic committee
Hamas announced dissolution of its civilian administration in Gaza, transferring governance to a technocratic committee under the US-backed peace plan, a political shift without foreign troop entry, maintaining uncertainty about intervention.
Hamas dissolves emergency committee, prepares Gaza administration transfer
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Hamas announced dissolving its emergency committee to transfer administrative responsibilities to a national committee, signaling internal governance shifts but no foreign operational deployment in Gaza. This maintained market uncertainty about foreign intervention.
Israeli attacks on Gaza kill at least 6 amid ceasefire violations
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Israeli military actions continued in Gaza, causing casualties and undermining stability, which likely decreased market confidence in foreign peacekeeping deployment within Gaza.
Hamas dissolves civilian administration in Gaza under US-backed peace plan
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Hamas announced the dissolution of its civilian administration in Gaza, transferring governance to a technocratic committee as part of the US-backed peace plan. This political shift was a key step but did not involve foreign troops entering Gaza, maintaining market uncertainty about foreign intervention.
Hamas resigns Gaza civil administration under peace plan
Hamas announced the resignation of its civil administration under the Gaza peace plan, signaling political shifts but no foreign military or police forces entering Gaza for operational roles. This political development did not translate into foreign ground intervention, influencing market sentiment downward.
UN warns of increased risks to civilians as Israeli forces expand control in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, setting tents ablaze and expanding control zones, but no foreign forces from other states or international institutions were reported entering Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced the market's downward adjustment on foreign intervention likelihood.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians in Gaza amid ongoing demolitions
December 31 dips to 41%1%
Israeli strikes killed Palestinians in Gaza while demolitions continued, highlighting persistent conflict and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This sustained the market's downward trend in foreign intervention probability.
Israeli airstrike kills Palestinian in Gaza amid ongoing demolitions
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israeli military actions continued in Gaza with airstrikes and demolitions, but no foreign military or peacekeeping forces entered Gaza. This maintained the market's view that foreign intervention was unlikely in the near term.
Israeli army detains settler activists near Syria border amid regional tensions
December 31 drops to 41%9%
The Israeli army detained settler activists attempting to breach the Syria border, highlighting regional security tensions but no foreign operational deployment in Gaza. This event maintained market uncertainty and contributed to price volatility.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians amid ongoing demolitions in Gaza
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israeli strikes killed Palestinians in Gaza while demolitions continued, highlighting persistent conflict and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This sustained the market's downward trend in foreign intervention probability.
Egypt resumes humanitarian aid convoys into Gaza via Rafah crossing
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Egypt dispatched the 227th humanitarian aid convoy into Gaza through the Rafah crossing, continuing its role in delivering aid but without any foreign military personnel entering Gaza, which did not meet the market's criteria for foreign intervention.
Egypt dispatches 227th aid convoy to Gaza via Rafah crossing
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Egypt continued humanitarian aid deliveries through the Rafah crossing, which remained under Egyptian and Israeli control, with no foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza. This maintained the status quo without qualifying as foreign intervention under the market criteria.
Egyptian Red Crescent dispatches 227th humanitarian aid convoy to Gaza
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Egypt continued humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza through the Rafah crossing, emphasizing ongoing support but not involving any foreign military or security personnel entering Gaza. This underscored the absence of foreign operational deployments, contributing to market decline.
Israeli strike kills Palestinian in Gaza as army continues demolitions
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Israeli military actions continued within Gaza, including strikes and demolitions, reinforcing the ongoing conflict environment but without foreign forces entering Gaza, which kept the market's probability for foreign intervention low.
Egyptian humanitarian aid convoy enters Gaza via Rafah crossing
The 227th Egyptian aid convoy entered Gaza through the Rafah crossing delivering humanitarian supplies. This event confirmed ongoing aid efforts but did not involve foreign military or security personnel entering Gaza, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention under the market criteria.
Egypt dispatches 227th humanitarian aid convoy to Gaza via Rafah crossing
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Egypt continued humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza through the Rafah crossing, emphasizing aid efforts without foreign military deployment inside Gaza, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention.
Israeli strike kills Palestinians amid ongoing demolitions in Gaza
December 31 dips to 41%1%
Israeli strikes killed Palestinians while demolitions continued, highlighting persistent conflict and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This sustained the market's downward trend in foreign intervention probability.
UN warns of expanding Israeli control in Gaza increasing civilian risks
December 31 drops to 41%11%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing and expanding control areas in Gaza, worsening humanitarian conditions but no mention of foreign forces entering Gaza. This contributed to market price decline as no qualifying foreign intervention was reported.
Palestinians seen relaxing on Gaza beach amid ongoing conflict
Images and reports of Palestinians relaxing on a Gaza beach suggested a lack of immediate foreign military intervention on the ground, reinforcing market sentiment against imminent foreign operational deployments.
Israel initiates large-scale military operation in central Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israel launched a significant ground offensive into Gaza's urban center, intensifying conflict but not involving foreign forces entering Gaza, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention. This heightened conflict increased uncertainty about international stabilization efforts, impacting market sentiment.
Israeli military launches large-scale ground operation in central Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israel began a major land offensive in Gaza City, escalating the conflict and increasing humanitarian concerns. This military escalation raised fears of further instability but did not involve foreign forces entering Gaza, causing a brief market price increase to 52%.
Palestinians relax on Gaza beach amid ongoing conflict
Despite ongoing hostilities, Palestinians were seen relaxing on a beach west of Gaza City, indicating no foreign military or peacekeeping presence on the ground. This underscored the absence of foreign operational deployments in Gaza during this period.
Morocco signs agreement to join International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Morocco officially agreed to participate in the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling international intent to deploy foreign personnel for stabilization. However, no reports confirmed physical entry of these forces into Gaza, leading to a temporary market price increase.
UN Security Council endorses International Stabilization Force for Gaza
The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2803 in November 2025, authorizing a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza to stabilize the region and support disarmament. This set the legal framework for the ISF, raising initial market optimism about foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing Israeli military advances and displacement in Gaza
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, causing displacement and restricting humanitarian access, but no foreign forces entered Gaza for operational roles. This maintained market uncertainty about foreign intervention.
Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt reopens for limited pedestrian movement
Israel reopened the Rafah border crossing with Egypt for limited pedestrian movement under strict security coordination, allowing some movement but not constituting foreign military intervention. This humanitarian development had limited impact on the market's foreign intervention outlook.
Morocco signs agreement to join International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Morocco officially signed a legal framework to participate in the ISF, signaling a major Arab military power's commitment to the multinational peacekeeping effort. However, the deployment was planned to begin with training near Gaza's border, not immediate entry into Gaza itself, limiting immediate impact on the market.
UN Deputy Special Coordinator reports no deployment of foreign peacekeepers in Gaza
December 31 drops to 41%11%
UN officials reiterated that no foreign police or military personnel have been deployed in Gaza for peacekeeping or security operations, reflecting the absence of an internationally authorized intervention and contributing to market decline.
US officials propose deploying international peacekeeping force in Gaza by early 2026
US officials announced plans for an international stabilization force to deploy in Gaza under UN authorization, aiming to maintain order post-conflict but facing challenges over Hamas disarmament. This announcement initially raised market optimism about foreign intervention.
Moroccan planning officers join Israeli Security Forces planning
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Reports indicated that Morocco agreed to participate and sent a small number of planning officers to Israel to join Israeli Security Forces planning, marking a tentative step toward foreign involvement in Gaza stabilization, though no deployment on Gaza ground occurred yet.
Hamas commander killed in Israeli strike amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
An Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander in Gaza, continuing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts. This event indicated ongoing conflict without foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Israeli strike kills Hamas commander in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities
December 31 rises to 50%2%
An Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander in Gaza on July 2, continuing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts. This event indicated ongoing conflict without foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Netanyahu confirms Israeli forces expanding control over Gaza territory
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced increased Israeli military control over Gaza, up to 70% of the territory, indicating no foreign forces entering Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced market sentiment against foreign intervention.
Hamas executes alleged Israeli collaborator amid ongoing conflict
December 31 rises to 52%4%
Hamas announced the execution of a person accused of collaborating with Israel and assisting in assassinations of Hamas leaders, signaling continued internal conflict and instability in Gaza without foreign intervention. This event contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price fluctuation.
Israel Defense Minister announces indefinite troop presence in Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israel's Defense Minister stated that Israeli forces would remain in Gaza indefinitely, reinforcing Israeli military control over much of the territory and signaling no imminent foreign peacekeeping deployment. This announcement contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price increase before subsequent declines.
Israeli court extends detention of Gaza-bound flotilla activists
December 31 drops to 45%5%
An Israeli court extended the detention of two activists from a Gaza-bound flotilla intercepted in international waters, highlighting ongoing tensions but not involving foreign forces entering Gaza territory. This event maintained market uncertainty but did not indicate foreign operational deployment in Gaza.
Moroccan planning officers join Israel Security Forces planning for Gaza stabilization
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Reports indicated that a small number of Moroccan planning officers arrived in Israel to join ISF planning efforts, marking a tentative step toward deployment, but the overall force deployment remained stalled, tempering expectations for immediate foreign intervention on Gaza ground.
UN reports Israeli forces expand control in Gaza, displacing families
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Beit Lahia, Gaza, expanding control zones and causing civilian displacement, but no foreign forces entered Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention, contributing to price decline.
Hamas expresses cautious optimism about international forces arriving near Gaza
Hamas publicly welcomed the arrival of international forces to the region as a step toward separating Palestinian citizens from Israeli forces, but emphasized no interference in Gaza's internal affairs, reflecting conditional acceptance without confirming foreign troops entering Gaza territory. This tempered market expectations for imminent intervention.
Moroccan planning officers join Israeli security forces in tentative operational step
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Reports indicated that Moroccan planning officers arrived in Israel to join Israeli Security Forces planning, signaling a tentative step towards foreign involvement, but no deployment into Gaza occurred, limiting impact on the market.
Hamas dissolves Gaza governing body, cedes civilian administration to technocratic committee
December 31 drops to 42%8%
On July 6, 2026, Hamas announced the dissolution of its civilian administration in Gaza, transferring governance to a technocratic committee as part of the US-backed peace plan. This political shift was a key step in the peace process but did not involve foreign troops entering Gaza, maintaining market uncertainty about foreign intervention.
UN reports Israeli forces expanding control in Gaza, no foreign troops enter
December 31 drops to 45%7%
The UN reported Israeli military advances and expansion of control zones in Gaza, causing civilian displacement but confirmed no foreign military or peacekeeping forces had entered Gaza. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention prospects.
UN reports Israeli military advances and humanitarian challenges in Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, setting tents ablaze and expanding control areas, while humanitarian operations faced severe restrictions. This reinforced the market's view that no foreign operational forces had entered Gaza, maintaining skepticism about foreign intervention.
Hamas expresses cautious optimism on arrival of international forces to Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Hamas publicly welcomed the beginning of international forces' arrival, hoping it would lead to separation from Israeli forces and reduce aggression. However, this was an announcement without confirmation of actual foreign personnel deployment on Gaza soil, leading to limited market impact.
Moroccan planning officers arrive in Israel to join Israeli Security Forces planning
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Reports indicated a small number of Moroccan planning officers arrived in Israel to join Israeli Security Forces planning, a tentative step for a force whose deployment has otherwise stalled. This suggested no immediate foreign operational deployment into Gaza, dampening prospects for foreign intervention.
Calls for immediate ceasefire and condemnation of Israeli military escalation in Gaza
Widespread international and regional condemnation of Israel's intensified military operations in Gaza increased pressure for peace but did not lead to foreign intervention. This heightened tensions but maintained the status quo, contributing to market uncertainty and a stable price around 50%.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 31%19%
The UN detailed continued hostilities, displacement, and limited humanitarian access in Gaza with no mention of foreign military or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention likelihood.
Morocco troops expected to train near Gaza border, deployment delayed
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Reports indicated Moroccan peacekeepers, initially slated for June deployment, were now expected to train near Gaza's border inside Israel before any operational deployment, signaling delays in foreign intervention on Gaza soil and contributing to market uncertainty.
Israeli military continues airstrikes and demolitions in Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Israeli forces conducted drone strikes and air attacks in Gaza, killing Palestinians and causing destruction, reinforcing the ongoing conflict but without any foreign intervention on the ground. This maintained market uncertainty about foreign forces entering Gaza.
Israel court extends detention of 2 Gaza-bound flotilla activists
An Israeli court extended detention of two activists from a Gaza-bound flotilla intercepted in international waters, highlighting ongoing tensions but no foreign operational deployment inside Gaza. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention on the ground.
UN Security Council approves deployment of International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
The UN Security Council overwhelmingly approved the US-drafted resolution authorizing the ISF deployment to Gaza, marking a significant diplomatic milestone. This raised market optimism about foreign intervention, reflected in a price increase to 50%.
Israeli drone attack kills civilians in Gaza City
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The Israeli army released footage of a drone strike targeting an unarmed civilian in Gaza City, killing two Palestinians and injuring 20 others, including women and children. This event underscored ongoing Israeli military operations in Gaza without foreign intervention, maintaining market uncertainty.
UN warns of expanding Israeli control areas in Gaza endangering civilians
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN reported that Israeli forces expanded control zones in Gaza, increasing risks to civilians and severely restricting humanitarian operations, which contributed to market uncertainty about foreign intervention prospects.
Israeli military continues strikes and demolitions in Gaza amid ceasefire
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israeli forces conducted drone strikes and demolitions in Gaza, killing Palestinians and causing civilian casualties, but no foreign forces entered Gaza for operational roles. This ongoing Israeli military activity without foreign intervention likely contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price increase early in the window.
US plans international stabilization force for Gaza in early 2026
December 31 rises to 52%2%
US officials revealed plans for a UN-mandated multinational stabilization force to deploy in Gaza as part of the second phase of the Trump administration's peace plan, raising initial market expectations for foreign intervention.
Five countries pledge troops to International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Five countries, including Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Albania, agreed to contribute troops to a US-led multinational stabilization force in Gaza, with Egypt and Jordan providing training. However, this force had not yet deployed on the ground by early July, leading to market uncertainty.
Israeli military conducts drone strike killing civilians in Gaza City
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The Israeli army released footage of a drone strike targeting unarmed civilians in Gaza City, killing two Palestinians and injuring 20 others. This event underscored ongoing Israeli military operations within Gaza without involvement of foreign forces, maintaining the status quo relevant to the market.
US struggles to deploy initial Moroccan troops for Gaza peacekeeping mission
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The Wall Street Journal reported that despite pledges for a 20,000-strong international peacekeeping force, the US was struggling to deploy even a small delegation of 10 to 20 Moroccan troops, who were not entering Gaza but training near the border in Israel. This news dampened expectations for foreign intervention inside Gaza.
UN Security Council prepares for Middle East debate amid Gaza ceasefire challenges
The UN Security Council scheduled a quarterly debate on the Middle East, highlighting ongoing issues including Hamas' refusal to disarm and the lack of a political settlement in Gaza. This underscored the absence of foreign operational deployments in Gaza, maintaining market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israeli military launches large-scale ground operation in Gaza City
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israeli forces began a major land offensive in Gaza's urban center, reinforcing Israeli military control and diminishing expectations for foreign intervention on the ground. This intensified conflict and contributed to market uncertainty about foreign troops entering Gaza.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms troops will remain in Gaza security zones indefinitely
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
On July 1, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would maintain their presence in Gaza security zones indefinitely, signaling no withdrawal or foreign intervention by other states or international bodies. This reinforced market expectations against foreign operational deployments in Gaza.
UN reports expansion of Israeli control in Gaza with increased risks to civilians
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, expanding buffer zones and causing displacement, but no foreign forces entered Gaza for operational roles, reinforcing market doubts about foreign intervention.
UN warns of increased risks to civilians as Israeli forces expand control in Gaza
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, setting tents ablaze and expanding control zones, but no foreign forces from other states or international institutions were reported entering Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced the market view that foreign intervention on the ground had not occurred.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms extensive military operation in Gaza City
December 31 rises to 52%2%
On July 1, Israeli forces began a large-scale land operation in Gaza's urban center, signaling continued Israeli military control and operations within Gaza. This diminished expectations for foreign intervention as Israel maintained its dominant military presence.
Board of Peace officials announce plans for pilot humanitarian zone in southern Gaza
Officials revealed plans to establish a pilot humanitarian zone in the Rafah area of Gaza, to be secured by an International Stabilization Force, but deployment remains pending and contingent on Israeli and Palestinian cooperation, impacting market optimism.
US officials reveal plans for international stabilization force deployment to Gaza in early 2026
US officials announced that a multinational stabilization force could be deployed to Gaza as part of the second phase of the Trump administration's peace plan, aiming to secure the enclave and support demilitarization efforts. This announcement initially raised market optimism about foreign intervention.
Calls for immediate ceasefire intensify amid escalating Israeli military operations in Gaza
On July 1, widespread condemnation of Israel's plan to take over Gaza City and calls for an immediate ceasefire increased international pressure, reflecting concerns over escalating military actions but no foreign intervention on the ground. This heightened tensions but did not lead to foreign forces entering Gaza.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms IDF presence in Gaza security zones indefinitely
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would remain in Gaza security zones indefinitely, signaling no withdrawal or foreign intervention by other states or international bodies, reinforcing market expectations against foreign operational deployments in Gaza.
Israel launches large-scale military operation in central Gaza
Israel began a significant land offensive in Gaza's urban center, intensifying military activity without any foreign forces entering Gaza for peacekeeping or security roles. This reinforced market expectations that foreign intervention was unlikely in the near term.
UN reports ongoing Israeli military operations and humanitarian challenges in Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN highlighted continued Israeli military activity and displacement in Gaza, with no indication of foreign forces entering the territory, maintaining uncertainty about foreign intervention prospects.
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