Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizure of Perim Island and Mokha in early September 2026, have reinforced the July naval blockade on Saudi-linked traffic and sustained selective attacks, anchoring Bab el-Mandeb transits near 22–28 vessels per day. AIS-visible data from TankerMap, Kpler, and BigOceanData show August averages of 21.7–37 daily transits, with September readings fluctuating between 15 and 30 amid rerouting of Saudi-affiliated tonnage and modest containership resumption by carriers such as Maersk and MSC. War-risk premiums remain elevated at roughly 0.5–1% of hull value, while IMF PortWatch’s 7-day moving average— the market’s resolution metric—has traded consistently in the 25–29 band. Trader consensus at 75% implied probability for that outcome reflects these persistent security constraints and limited near-term catalysts for a sustained rebound before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
25-29 72%
<25 13.4%
30-34 6.9%
35-39 2.5%
$42,871 ปริมาณ
$42,871 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<25
13%
25-29
72%
30-34
7%
35-39
3%
40+
3%
25-29 72%
<25 13.4%
30-34 6.9%
35-39 2.5%
$42,871 ปริมาณ
$42,871 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$17,996 ปริมาณ
13%
25-29
$12,322 ปริมาณ
72%
30-34
$5,404 ปริมาณ
7%
35-39
$3,837 ปริมาณ
3%
40+
$3,313 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizure of Perim Island and Mokha in early September 2026, have reinforced the July naval blockade on Saudi-linked traffic and sustained selective attacks, anchoring Bab el-Mandeb transits near 22–28 vessels per day. AIS-visible data from TankerMap, Kpler, and BigOceanData show August averages of 21.7–37 daily transits, with September readings fluctuating between 15 and 30 amid rerouting of Saudi-affiliated tonnage and modest containership resumption by carriers such as Maersk and MSC. War-risk premiums remain elevated at roughly 0.5–1% of hull value, while IMF PortWatch’s 7-day moving average— the market’s resolution metric—has traded consistently in the 25–29 band. Trader consensus at 75% implied probability for that outcome reflects these persistent security constraints and limited near-term catalysts for a sustained rebound before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,871วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
IMF PortWatchผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizure of Perim Island and Mokha in early September 2026, have reinforced the July naval blockade on Saudi-linked traffic and sustained selective attacks, anchoring Bab el-Mandeb transits near 22–28 vessels per day. AIS-visible data from TankerMap, Kpler, and BigOceanData show August averages of 21.7–37 daily transits, with September readings fluctuating between 15 and 30 amid rerouting of Saudi-affiliated tonnage and modest containership resumption by carriers such as Maersk and MSC. War-risk premiums remain elevated at roughly 0.5–1% of hull value, while IMF PortWatch’s 7-day moving average— the market’s resolution metric—has traded consistently in the 25–29 band. Trader consensus at 75% implied probability for that outcome reflects these persistent security constraints and limited near-term catalysts for a sustained rebound before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,871วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
IMF PortWatchผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizure of Perim Island and Mokha in early September 2026, have reinforced the July naval blockade on Saudi-linked traffic and sustained selective attacks, anchoring Bab el-Mandeb transits near 22–28 vessels per day. AIS-visible data from TankerMap, Kpler, and BigOceanData show August averages of 21.7–37 daily transits, with September readings fluctuating between 15 and 30 amid rerouting of Saudi-affiliated tonnage and modest containership resumption by carriers such as Maersk and MSC. War-risk premiums remain elevated at roughly 0.5–1% of hull value, while IMF PortWatch’s 7-day moving average— the market’s resolution metric—has traded consistently in the 25–29 band. Trader consensus at 75% implied probability for that outcome reflects these persistent security constraints and limited near-term catalysts for a sustained rebound before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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