**Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and political barriers despite recent allegations.** A September 2026 scandal involving messages between Moraes and jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro (linked to the failed Banco Master) and a large consulting contract held by Moraes’s wife’s law firm triggered dozens of new impeachment petitions in the Federal Senate, editorials calling for his exit, and internal STF conflict with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin removed Moraes from a long-running disinformation inquiry and the full court postponed any decision on opening a probe into him until at least mid-December after a request for more time. Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority (54 of 81 votes) and is controlled by the Senate president, who has not advanced the queue of petitions. Moraes holds lifetime tenure until age 75, and the October presidential election plus Senate races add further uncertainty to any near-term path for removal. These procedural, evidentiary, and political hurdles underpin the current market pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว16% โอกาส
$90,726 ปริมาณ
$90,726 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
16% โอกาส
$90,726 ปริมาณ
$90,726 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and political barriers despite recent allegations.**
A September 2026 scandal involving messages between Moraes and jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro (linked to the failed Banco Master) and a large consulting contract held by Moraes’s wife’s law firm triggered dozens of new impeachment petitions in the Federal Senate, editorials calling for his exit, and internal STF conflict with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin removed Moraes from a long-running disinformation inquiry and the full court postponed any decision on opening a probe into him until at least mid-December after a request for more time.
Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority (54 of 81 votes) and is controlled by the Senate president, who has not advanced the queue of petitions. Moraes holds lifetime tenure until age 75, and the October presidential election plus Senate races add further uncertainty to any near-term path for removal. These procedural, evidentiary, and political hurdles underpin the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$90,726วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and political barriers despite recent allegations.**
A September 2026 scandal involving messages between Moraes and jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro (linked to the failed Banco Master) and a large consulting contract held by Moraes’s wife’s law firm triggered dozens of new impeachment petitions in the Federal Senate, editorials calling for his exit, and internal STF conflict with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin removed Moraes from a long-running disinformation inquiry and the full court postponed any decision on opening a probe into him until at least mid-December after a request for more time.
Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority (54 of 81 votes) and is controlled by the Senate president, who has not advanced the queue of petitions. Moraes holds lifetime tenure until age 75, and the October presidential election plus Senate races add further uncertainty to any near-term path for removal. These procedural, evidentiary, and political hurdles underpin the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$90,726วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and political barriers despite recent allegations.** A September 2026 scandal involving messages between Moraes and jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro (linked to the failed Banco Master) and a large consulting contract held by Moraes’s wife’s law firm triggered dozens of new impeachment petitions in the Federal Senate, editorials calling for his exit, and internal STF conflict with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin removed Moraes from a long-running disinformation inquiry and the full court postponed any decision on opening a probe into him until at least mid-December after a request for more time. Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority (54 of 81 votes) and is controlled by the Senate president, who has not advanced the queue of petitions. Moraes holds lifetime tenure until age 75, and the October presidential election plus Senate races add further uncertainty to any near-term path for removal. These procedural, evidentiary, and political hurdles underpin the current market pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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