The 22nd Amendment's repeal would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold that has never been met for altering presidential term limits and faces steep institutional and political barriers even under unified government. Traders price this outcome near-certain because no formal legislative proposals or coordinated state-level efforts have advanced in 2026, while historical precedent and Senate filibuster rules reinforce the low probability of success. Late developments such as an unprecedented bipartisan coalition, Supreme Court reinterpretation of amendment procedures, or extraordinary crisis-driven momentum could theoretically shift odds, though such paths remain remote given current congressional arithmetic and state ratification dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
$13,141 Объем
$13,141 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$13,141 Объем
$13,141 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The 22nd Amendment's repeal would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold that has never been met for altering presidential term limits and faces steep institutional and political barriers even under unified government. Traders price this outcome near-certain because no formal legislative proposals or coordinated state-level efforts have advanced in 2026, while historical precedent and Senate filibuster rules reinforce the low probability of success. Late developments such as an unprecedented bipartisan coalition, Supreme Court reinterpretation of amendment procedures, or extraordinary crisis-driven momentum could theoretically shift odds, though such paths remain remote given current congressional arithmetic and state ratification dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Открытие рынка: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$13,141Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The 22nd Amendment's repeal would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold that has never been met for altering presidential term limits and faces steep institutional and political barriers even under unified government. Traders price this outcome near-certain because no formal legislative proposals or coordinated state-level efforts have advanced in 2026, while historical precedent and Senate filibuster rules reinforce the low probability of success. Late developments such as an unprecedented bipartisan coalition, Supreme Court reinterpretation of amendment procedures, or extraordinary crisis-driven momentum could theoretically shift odds, though such paths remain remote given current congressional arithmetic and state ratification dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Объем
$13,141Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The 22nd Amendment's repeal would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold that has never been met for altering presidential term limits and faces steep institutional and political barriers even under unified government. Traders price this outcome near-certain because no formal legislative proposals or coordinated state-level efforts have advanced in 2026, while historical precedent and Senate filibuster rules reinforce the low probability of success. Late developments such as an unprecedented bipartisan coalition, Supreme Court reinterpretation of amendment procedures, or extraordinary crisis-driven momentum could theoretically shift odds, though such paths remain remote given current congressional arithmetic and state ratification dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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