Tropical Storm Norbert, which formed in the eastern North Pacific in early September 2026, peaked at 60-65 mph sustained winds but failed to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Moderate vertical wind shear repeatedly displaced convection east of the center, producing an asymmetric wind field and limiting organization, while increasing shear and drier air were projected to strengthen through the forecast period. National Hurricane Center model consensus and satellite observations confirmed a weakening trend by mid-September, with the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low near 20.5°N 143.1°W on September 15 before dissipating. These persistent environmental barriers, rather than transient fluctuations, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of the storm's observed trajectory against historical analogs for similar shear-dominated systems.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУсилится ли тропический шторм Норберт до урагана?
Усилится ли тропический шторм Норберт до урагана?
Да
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 сент. 2026 г.
Да
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Norbert, which formed in the eastern North Pacific in early September 2026, peaked at 60-65 mph sustained winds but failed to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Moderate vertical wind shear repeatedly displaced convection east of the center, producing an asymmetric wind field and limiting organization, while increasing shear and drier air were projected to strengthen through the forecast period. National Hurricane Center model consensus and satellite observations confirmed a weakening trend by mid-September, with the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low near 20.5°N 143.1°W on September 15 before dissipating. These persistent environmental barriers, rather than transient fluctuations, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of the storm's observed trajectory against historical analogs for similar shear-dominated systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$402Дата окончания
22 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Norbert, which formed in the eastern North Pacific in early September 2026, peaked at 60-65 mph sustained winds but failed to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Moderate vertical wind shear repeatedly displaced convection east of the center, producing an asymmetric wind field and limiting organization, while increasing shear and drier air were projected to strengthen through the forecast period. National Hurricane Center model consensus and satellite observations confirmed a weakening trend by mid-September, with the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low near 20.5°N 143.1°W on September 15 before dissipating. These persistent environmental barriers, rather than transient fluctuations, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of the storm's observed trajectory against historical analogs for similar shear-dominated systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Объем
$402Дата окончания
22 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Norbert, which formed in the eastern North Pacific in early September 2026, peaked at 60-65 mph sustained winds but failed to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Moderate vertical wind shear repeatedly displaced convection east of the center, producing an asymmetric wind field and limiting organization, while increasing shear and drier air were projected to strengthen through the forecast period. National Hurricane Center model consensus and satellite observations confirmed a weakening trend by mid-September, with the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low near 20.5°N 143.1°W on September 15 before dissipating. These persistent environmental barriers, rather than transient fluctuations, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of the storm's observed trajectory against historical analogs for similar shear-dominated systems.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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