Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific have driven elevated wind shear and atmospheric stability across the Atlantic basin, suppressing intensification despite six named tropical storms forming so far in 2026. As of September 20, zero hurricanes have developed, marking the latest start to hurricane activity in the satellite era and well below the seasonal average of roughly four hurricanes by this date. NOAA’s August outlook, citing the ongoing El Niño, assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall with a most likely range of 2–6 hurricanes. Late-season formation remains possible through November, particularly in October, but current National Hurricane Center guidance shows no development expected in the next seven days, and model consensus points to continued unfavorable conditions that align with trader consensus favoring a low single-digit total.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько ураганов сформируется во время сезона атлантических ураганов в 2026 году?
Сколько ураганов сформируется во время сезона атлантических ураганов в 2026 году?
1-3 59%
0 37%
4-6 3.9%
7+ <1%
$37,129 Объем
$37,129 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
37%
1-3
59%
4-6
4%
7+
<1%
1-3 59%
0 37%
4-6 3.9%
7+ <1%
$37,129 Объем
$37,129 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
$18,293 Объем
37%
1-3
$6,052 Объем
59%
4-6
$10,167 Объем
4%
7+
$2,616 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific have driven elevated wind shear and atmospheric stability across the Atlantic basin, suppressing intensification despite six named tropical storms forming so far in 2026. As of September 20, zero hurricanes have developed, marking the latest start to hurricane activity in the satellite era and well below the seasonal average of roughly four hurricanes by this date. NOAA’s August outlook, citing the ongoing El Niño, assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall with a most likely range of 2–6 hurricanes. Late-season formation remains possible through November, particularly in October, but current National Hurricane Center guidance shows no development expected in the next seven days, and model consensus points to continued unfavorable conditions that align with trader consensus favoring a low single-digit total.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Открытие рынка: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Объем
$37,129Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific have driven elevated wind shear and atmospheric stability across the Atlantic basin, suppressing intensification despite six named tropical storms forming so far in 2026. As of September 20, zero hurricanes have developed, marking the latest start to hurricane activity in the satellite era and well below the seasonal average of roughly four hurricanes by this date. NOAA’s August outlook, citing the ongoing El Niño, assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall with a most likely range of 2–6 hurricanes. Late-season formation remains possible through November, particularly in October, but current National Hurricane Center guidance shows no development expected in the next seven days, and model consensus points to continued unfavorable conditions that align with trader consensus favoring a low single-digit total.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Объем
$37,129Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific have driven elevated wind shear and atmospheric stability across the Atlantic basin, suppressing intensification despite six named tropical storms forming so far in 2026. As of September 20, zero hurricanes have developed, marking the latest start to hurricane activity in the satellite era and well below the seasonal average of roughly four hurricanes by this date. NOAA’s August outlook, citing the ongoing El Niño, assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall with a most likely range of 2–6 hurricanes. Late-season formation remains possible through November, particularly in October, but current National Hurricane Center guidance shows no development expected in the next seven days, and model consensus points to continued unfavorable conditions that align with trader consensus favoring a low single-digit total.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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