Trader consensus around a 95% implied probability against a Stripe-PayPal acquisition in 2026 reflects the August collapse of the $53 billion joint bid with Advent International, which valued shares at $60.50. PayPal’s board rejected the offer as inadequate, citing a valuation gap with its $70 target and potential regulatory and financing hurdles, while Stripe shifted focus to organic growth and other deals such as its recent OpenRouter acquisition. PayPal shares have since stabilized near $52–53 amid progress under CEO Enrique Lores, reducing near-term M&A incentives. With limited time remaining in the year and no active negotiations, the market-implied odds align with the low likelihood of a completed transaction. Tail risks include an unexpected sweetened bid or regulatory-driven reversal, though both appear remote given the recent impasse and Stripe’s self-funding strategy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$90,976 Объем
$90,976 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$90,976 Объем
$90,976 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 95% implied probability against a Stripe-PayPal acquisition in 2026 reflects the August collapse of the $53 billion joint bid with Advent International, which valued shares at $60.50. PayPal’s board rejected the offer as inadequate, citing a valuation gap with its $70 target and potential regulatory and financing hurdles, while Stripe shifted focus to organic growth and other deals such as its recent OpenRouter acquisition. PayPal shares have since stabilized near $52–53 amid progress under CEO Enrique Lores, reducing near-term M&A incentives. With limited time remaining in the year and no active negotiations, the market-implied odds align with the low likelihood of a completed transaction. Tail risks include an unexpected sweetened bid or regulatory-driven reversal, though both appear remote given the recent impasse and Stripe’s self-funding strategy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$90,976Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 95% implied probability against a Stripe-PayPal acquisition in 2026 reflects the August collapse of the $53 billion joint bid with Advent International, which valued shares at $60.50. PayPal’s board rejected the offer as inadequate, citing a valuation gap with its $70 target and potential regulatory and financing hurdles, while Stripe shifted focus to organic growth and other deals such as its recent OpenRouter acquisition. PayPal shares have since stabilized near $52–53 amid progress under CEO Enrique Lores, reducing near-term M&A incentives. With limited time remaining in the year and no active negotiations, the market-implied odds align with the low likelihood of a completed transaction. Tail risks include an unexpected sweetened bid or regulatory-driven reversal, though both appear remote given the recent impasse and Stripe’s self-funding strategy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$90,976Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus around a 95% implied probability against a Stripe-PayPal acquisition in 2026 reflects the August collapse of the $53 billion joint bid with Advent International, which valued shares at $60.50. PayPal’s board rejected the offer as inadequate, citing a valuation gap with its $70 target and potential regulatory and financing hurdles, while Stripe shifted focus to organic growth and other deals such as its recent OpenRouter acquisition. PayPal shares have since stabilized near $52–53 amid progress under CEO Enrique Lores, reducing near-term M&A incentives. With limited time remaining in the year and no active negotiations, the market-implied odds align with the low likelihood of a completed transaction. Tail risks include an unexpected sweetened bid or regulatory-driven reversal, though both appear remote given the recent impasse and Stripe’s self-funding strategy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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