A rapidly intensifying 2026 El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +2.8 °C in early September and models projecting a peak above +3.3 °C later in the year, forms the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds across the temperature bins. This event, on track to rival or exceed prior super El Niños, adds substantial warmth to global means through ocean heat release, though the typical 3–5 month lag means its full influence on September anomalies remains partial. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing keeps the baseline near 1.45–1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels, while model spread in timing, exact peak strength, and short-term variability such as Indian Ocean Dipole influences create genuine uncertainty between sub-1.30 °C and above-1.45 °C outcomes. Official September data releases from NASA GISS, NOAA, and ERA5, along with updated seasonal forecasts, will provide the next key resolution signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСентябрь 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
Сентябрь 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 окт. 2026 г.
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 окт. 2026 г.
<1,30ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Объем
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Объем
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying 2026 El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +2.8 °C in early September and models projecting a peak above +3.3 °C later in the year, forms the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds across the temperature bins. This event, on track to rival or exceed prior super El Niños, adds substantial warmth to global means through ocean heat release, though the typical 3–5 month lag means its full influence on September anomalies remains partial. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing keeps the baseline near 1.45–1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels, while model spread in timing, exact peak strength, and short-term variability such as Indian Ocean Dipole influences create genuine uncertainty between sub-1.30 °C and above-1.45 °C outcomes. Official September data releases from NASA GISS, NOAA, and ERA5, along with updated seasonal forecasts, will provide the next key resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
10 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying 2026 El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +2.8 °C in early September and models projecting a peak above +3.3 °C later in the year, forms the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds across the temperature bins. This event, on track to rival or exceed prior super El Niños, adds substantial warmth to global means through ocean heat release, though the typical 3–5 month lag means its full influence on September anomalies remains partial. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing keeps the baseline near 1.45–1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels, while model spread in timing, exact peak strength, and short-term variability such as Indian Ocean Dipole influences create genuine uncertainty between sub-1.30 °C and above-1.45 °C outcomes. Official September data releases from NASA GISS, NOAA, and ERA5, along with updated seasonal forecasts, will provide the next key resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
10 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying 2026 El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +2.8 °C in early September and models projecting a peak above +3.3 °C later in the year, forms the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds across the temperature bins. This event, on track to rival or exceed prior super El Niños, adds substantial warmth to global means through ocean heat release, though the typical 3–5 month lag means its full influence on September anomalies remains partial. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing keeps the baseline near 1.45–1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels, while model spread in timing, exact peak strength, and short-term variability such as Indian Ocean Dipole influences create genuine uncertainty between sub-1.30 °C and above-1.45 °C outcomes. Official September data releases from NASA GISS, NOAA, and ERA5, along with updated seasonal forecasts, will provide the next key resolution signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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