Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 78.3%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 18.9%
<4 млн кв км 1.5%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км 1.3%
$78,113 Объем
$78,113 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
<4 млн кв км
2%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
1%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
17%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
73%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
1%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
1%
5+ млн кв. км
<1%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 78.3%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 18.9%
<4 млн кв км 1.5%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км 1.3%
$78,113 Объем
$78,113 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
<4 млн кв км
$33,489 Объем
2%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
$7,400 Объем
1%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
$3,682 Объем
17%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
$4,039 Объем
73%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
$10,207 Объем
1%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
$4,284 Объем
1%
5+ млн кв. км
$15,013 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$78,113Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$78,113Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near 2012 levels early in the 2026 melt season before moderating in August, when monthly average extent reached 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record. Cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns limited further rapid loss compared to initial projections, positioning the annual minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. With the seasonal low expected mid-September, trader consensus reflected in the dominant 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin aligns with forecasts from statistical models and historical post-2010 analogs, while lower or higher bins remain unlikely absent major late-season weather shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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