Russia's security apparatus has intensified surveillance of elites and military figures since early 2026, including expanded monitoring of aides and limits on public appearances by Vladimir Putin, following earlier concerns over influence networks linked to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu. These measures align with post-2023 Prigozhin mutiny reforms that strengthened FSB and military loyalty mechanisms. Recent months have featured continued arrests of suspected Ukrainian-linked operatives and no verified coordinated efforts by state actors to seize power. Trader pricing reflects the regime's demonstrated capacity to contain internal dissent through purges and controls, despite polling declines and war-related strains, consistent with the absence of any executed coup attempt through September.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено6% вероятность
$131,207 Объем
$131,207 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
6% вероятность
$131,207 Объем
$131,207 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's security apparatus has intensified surveillance of elites and military figures since early 2026, including expanded monitoring of aides and limits on public appearances by Vladimir Putin, following earlier concerns over influence networks linked to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu. These measures align with post-2023 Prigozhin mutiny reforms that strengthened FSB and military loyalty mechanisms. Recent months have featured continued arrests of suspected Ukrainian-linked operatives and no verified coordinated efforts by state actors to seize power. Trader pricing reflects the regime's demonstrated capacity to contain internal dissent through purges and controls, despite polling declines and war-related strains, consistent with the absence of any executed coup attempt through September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Объем
$131,207Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's security apparatus has intensified surveillance of elites and military figures since early 2026, including expanded monitoring of aides and limits on public appearances by Vladimir Putin, following earlier concerns over influence networks linked to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu. These measures align with post-2023 Prigozhin mutiny reforms that strengthened FSB and military loyalty mechanisms. Recent months have featured continued arrests of suspected Ukrainian-linked operatives and no verified coordinated efforts by state actors to seize power. Trader pricing reflects the regime's demonstrated capacity to contain internal dissent through purges and controls, despite polling declines and war-related strains, consistent with the absence of any executed coup attempt through September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$131,207Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Russia's security apparatus has intensified surveillance of elites and military figures since early 2026, including expanded monitoring of aides and limits on public appearances by Vladimir Putin, following earlier concerns over influence networks linked to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu. These measures align with post-2023 Prigozhin mutiny reforms that strengthened FSB and military loyalty mechanisms. Recent months have featured continued arrests of suspected Ukrainian-linked operatives and no verified coordinated efforts by state actors to seize power. Trader pricing reflects the regime's demonstrated capacity to contain internal dissent through purges and controls, despite polling declines and war-related strains, consistent with the absence of any executed coup attempt through September.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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