Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, with trader consensus favoring Democratic victory margins clustered in the 15-30 point range. The district’s suburban central New Jersey composition and partisan lean underpin these probabilities, reinforced by Conaway’s incumbency advantage, substantial fundraising lead, and unopposed Democratic primary. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in the June 2 GOP primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Limited public polling and the absence of major recent shifts keep the projected margin range stable, though national midterm dynamics, candidate-specific turnout among key voting blocs, or late campaign events could alter the final spread before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNJ-03 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
NJ-03 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Демократ 15–20% 26%
Демократ 20-25% 24.0%
Демократ 25-30% 23.0%
Демократ 10-15% 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ 35%+
<1%
Демократ 30-35%
5%
Демократ 25-30%
23%
Демократ 20-25%
27%
Демократ 15–20%
26%
Демократ 10-15%
21%
Демократ 5-10%
5%
Демократ 0-5%
8%
Победа республиканца
<1%
Демократ 15–20% 26%
Демократ 20-25% 24.0%
Демократ 25-30% 23.0%
Демократ 10-15% 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ 35%+
$271 Объем
<1%
Демократ 30-35%
$339 Объем
5%
Демократ 25-30%
$1,039 Объем
23%
Демократ 20-25%
$563 Объем
27%
Демократ 15–20%
$1,648 Объем
26%
Демократ 10-15%
$1,896 Объем
21%
Демократ 5-10%
$370 Объем
5%
Демократ 0-5%
$329 Объем
8%
Победа республиканца
$453 Объем
<1%
The 2026 NJ-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, with trader consensus favoring Democratic victory margins clustered in the 15-30 point range. The district’s suburban central New Jersey composition and partisan lean underpin these probabilities, reinforced by Conaway’s incumbency advantage, substantial fundraising lead, and unopposed Democratic primary. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in the June 2 GOP primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Limited public polling and the absence of major recent shifts keep the projected margin range stable, though national midterm dynamics, candidate-specific turnout among key voting blocs, or late campaign events could alter the final spread before Election Day.
The 2026 NJ-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Объем
$6,907Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NJ-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, with trader consensus favoring Democratic victory margins clustered in the 15-30 point range. The district’s suburban central New Jersey composition and partisan lean underpin these probabilities, reinforced by Conaway’s incumbency advantage, substantial fundraising lead, and unopposed Democratic primary. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in the June 2 GOP primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Limited public polling and the absence of major recent shifts keep the projected margin range stable, though national midterm dynamics, candidate-specific turnout among key voting blocs, or late campaign events could alter the final spread before Election Day.
The 2026 NJ-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,907Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, with trader consensus favoring Democratic victory margins clustered in the 15-30 point range. The district’s suburban central New Jersey composition and partisan lean underpin these probabilities, reinforced by Conaway’s incumbency advantage, substantial fundraising lead, and unopposed Democratic primary. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in the June 2 GOP primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Limited public polling and the absence of major recent shifts keep the projected margin range stable, though national midterm dynamics, candidate-specific turnout among key voting blocs, or late campaign events could alter the final spread before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу NJ-06 в 2026 году с разницей в 20-25%?
38%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу NJ-04 в 2026 году с разницей в 25%-30%?
35%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу NJ-07 в 2026 году с преимуществом 18% и более?
18%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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