Michael Guest's commanding 97% implied probability in the MS-03 House race reflects the district's entrenched Republican lean, consistent with its R+29 partisan index and prior general-election margins exceeding 20 points. The incumbent advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and enters the November general with established institutional support, committee roles, and fundraising dominance over Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio, a first-time candidate and farmer who also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout, major national shifts favoring the opposition party, or unforeseen late developments affecting candidate viability before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей MS-03
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей MS-03
$62,011 Объем
$62,011 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Майкл Гест (Р)
97%
Майкл Кьарадио (Д)
<1%
$62,011 Объем
$62,011 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Майкл Гест (Р)
$22,644 Объем
97%
Майкл Кьарадио (Д)
$39,366 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michael Guest's commanding 97% implied probability in the MS-03 House race reflects the district's entrenched Republican lean, consistent with its R+29 partisan index and prior general-election margins exceeding 20 points. The incumbent advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and enters the November general with established institutional support, committee roles, and fundraising dominance over Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio, a first-time candidate and farmer who also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout, major national shifts favoring the opposition party, or unforeseen late developments affecting candidate viability before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$62,011Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michael Guest's commanding 97% implied probability in the MS-03 House race reflects the district's entrenched Republican lean, consistent with its R+29 partisan index and prior general-election margins exceeding 20 points. The incumbent advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and enters the November general with established institutional support, committee roles, and fundraising dominance over Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio, a first-time candidate and farmer who also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout, major national shifts favoring the opposition party, or unforeseen late developments affecting candidate viability before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$62,011Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Michael Guest's commanding 97% implied probability in the MS-03 House race reflects the district's entrenched Republican lean, consistent with its R+29 partisan index and prior general-election margins exceeding 20 points. The incumbent advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and enters the November general with established institutional support, committee roles, and fundraising dominance over Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio, a first-time candidate and farmer who also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout, major national shifts favoring the opposition party, or unforeseen late developments affecting candidate viability before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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