Massachusetts voters delivered a decisive primary victory to incumbent Democrat Ed Markey over challenger Seth Moulton on September 1, setting up a general election matchup against Republican John Deaton. Massachusetts remains a strongly Democratic state, with recent presidential and Senate results showing double-digit margins favoring Democrats and current forecasts projecting a roughly 33-point advantage for Markey. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this baseline, balanced by uncertainty over turnout in a low-salience midterm, potential national political shifts, and limited post-primary polling data. The 50-50 split on leading outcomes and clustering around 25-40 point Democratic wins capture the range of plausible results absent major late developments such as unexpected scandals or economic events that could alter participation or voter sentiment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМаржа победы на выборах в Сенат штата Массачусетс
Маржа победы на выборах в Сенат штата Массачусетс
Демократ 35-40% 21%
Демократ 40-45% 17%
Демократ 30-35% 16%
Демократ 25-30% 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Победа республиканца
1%
Демократ 0-10%
2%
Демократ 10-15%
3%
Демократ 15-20%
4%
Демократ 20-25%
8%
Демократ 25-30%
13%
Демократ 30-35%
16%
Демократ 35-40%
21%
Демократ 40-45%
17%
Демократ 45%+
13%
Демократ 35-40% 21%
Демократ 40-45% 17%
Демократ 30-35% 16%
Демократ 25-30% 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Победа республиканца
$668 Объем
1%
Демократ 0-10%
$374 Объем
2%
Демократ 10-15%
$398 Объем
3%
Демократ 15-20%
$368 Объем
4%
Демократ 20-25%
$470 Объем
8%
Демократ 25-30%
$797 Объем
13%
Демократ 30-35%
$578 Объем
16%
Демократ 35-40%
$789 Объем
21%
Демократ 40-45%
$736 Объем
17%
Демократ 45%+
$564 Объем
13%
The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Massachusetts voters delivered a decisive primary victory to incumbent Democrat Ed Markey over challenger Seth Moulton on September 1, setting up a general election matchup against Republican John Deaton. Massachusetts remains a strongly Democratic state, with recent presidential and Senate results showing double-digit margins favoring Democrats and current forecasts projecting a roughly 33-point advantage for Markey. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this baseline, balanced by uncertainty over turnout in a low-salience midterm, potential national political shifts, and limited post-primary polling data. The 50-50 split on leading outcomes and clustering around 25-40 point Democratic wins capture the range of plausible results absent major late developments such as unexpected scandals or economic events that could alter participation or voter sentiment.
The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Объем
$5,742Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 2:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Massachusetts voters delivered a decisive primary victory to incumbent Democrat Ed Markey over challenger Seth Moulton on September 1, setting up a general election matchup against Republican John Deaton. Massachusetts remains a strongly Democratic state, with recent presidential and Senate results showing double-digit margins favoring Democrats and current forecasts projecting a roughly 33-point advantage for Markey. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this baseline, balanced by uncertainty over turnout in a low-salience midterm, potential national political shifts, and limited post-primary polling data. The 50-50 split on leading outcomes and clustering around 25-40 point Democratic wins capture the range of plausible results absent major late developments such as unexpected scandals or economic events that could alter participation or voter sentiment.
The 2026 Massachusetts Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,742Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 2:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Massachusetts voters delivered a decisive primary victory to incumbent Democrat Ed Markey over challenger Seth Moulton on September 1, setting up a general election matchup against Republican John Deaton. Massachusetts remains a strongly Democratic state, with recent presidential and Senate results showing double-digit margins favoring Democrats and current forecasts projecting a roughly 33-point advantage for Markey. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this baseline, balanced by uncertainty over turnout in a low-salience midterm, potential national political shifts, and limited post-primary polling data. The 50-50 split on leading outcomes and clustering around 25-40 point Democratic wins capture the range of plausible results absent major late developments such as unexpected scandals or economic events that could alter participation or voter sentiment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Массачусетса в 2026 году с разницей в 25%-30%?
19%
Да
Выиграет ли кандидат от Демократической партии выборы в Сенат Нью-Гэмпшира 2026 года с разницей в 3%-6%?
24%
Да
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-06 House election by 40%-45%?
25%
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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