US prosecutors added conspiracy-to-commit-torture charges against Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores in early October 2026, expanding an existing narco-terrorism and weapons case stemming from his January capture in a US raid. Maduro and Flores pleaded not guilty at a mid-October arraignment, with their trial now scheduled for June 2027. Conviction on the full indictment carries a mandatory minimum of roughly 50 years, yet defense arguments on sovereign immunity and procedural challenges remain unresolved. Traders appear to price substantial uncertainty over conviction, possible plea resolutions, or pre-trial developments into the 56 percent probability of no prison time, while the 21 percent chance of 60 or more years reflects the severity of the charges if the case proceeds to verdict.