The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s D+19 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins of 30+ points in recent cycles underpin the market’s assessment of Mike Quigley’s position. The incumbent secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote against three challengers, while Tommy Hanson prevailed in the Republican primary. Quigley’s long tenure, fundraising advantage, and the district’s Chicago-area composition have limited Republican competitiveness. Hanson’s repeat candidacy has not narrowed the gap from the 2024 general election. A late withdrawal by Quigley tied to his Chicago mayoral bid, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national shift altering turnout patterns represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIL-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
IL-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$25,272 Объем
$25,272 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Майк Куигли (Д)
95%
Томми Хэнсон (Р)
5%
$25,272 Объем
$25,272 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Майк Куигли (Д)
$8,976 Объем
95%
Томми Хэнсон (Р)
$16,296 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s D+19 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins of 30+ points in recent cycles underpin the market’s assessment of Mike Quigley’s position. The incumbent secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote against three challengers, while Tommy Hanson prevailed in the Republican primary. Quigley’s long tenure, fundraising advantage, and the district’s Chicago-area composition have limited Republican competitiveness. Hanson’s repeat candidacy has not narrowed the gap from the 2024 general election. A late withdrawal by Quigley tied to his Chicago mayoral bid, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national shift altering turnout patterns represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$25,272Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s D+19 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins of 30+ points in recent cycles underpin the market’s assessment of Mike Quigley’s position. The incumbent secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote against three challengers, while Tommy Hanson prevailed in the Republican primary. Quigley’s long tenure, fundraising advantage, and the district’s Chicago-area composition have limited Republican competitiveness. Hanson’s repeat candidacy has not narrowed the gap from the 2024 general election. A late withdrawal by Quigley tied to his Chicago mayoral bid, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national shift altering turnout patterns represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$25,272Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s D+19 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins of 30+ points in recent cycles underpin the market’s assessment of Mike Quigley’s position. The incumbent secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote against three challengers, while Tommy Hanson prevailed in the Republican primary. Quigley’s long tenure, fundraising advantage, and the district’s Chicago-area composition have limited Republican competitiveness. Hanson’s repeat candidacy has not narrowed the gap from the 2024 general election. A late withdrawal by Quigley tied to his Chicago mayoral bid, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national shift altering turnout patterns represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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