The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings amid inflation running well above the 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.5-4.1% driven by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. Strong GDP growth, stable labor conditions with unemployment around 4.3%, and upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections in the June SEP have prompted three dissents favoring a July hike and shifted some analyst forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, paired with incoming August CPI and PCE data, represents the key near-term catalyst, as markets price modest odds of action while a Reuters poll shows roughly 70% of economists expecting a hold at that gathering.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$2,924,519 Объем
8 дек. 2026 г.
Сентябрьское заседание
54%
Октябрьское заседание
66%
$2,924,519 Объем
Сентябрьское заседание
$1,336,362 Объем
54%
Октябрьское заседание
$628,176 Объем
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings amid inflation running well above the 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.5-4.1% driven by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. Strong GDP growth, stable labor conditions with unemployment around 4.3%, and upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections in the June SEP have prompted three dissents favoring a July hike and shifted some analyst forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, paired with incoming August CPI and PCE data, represents the key near-term catalyst, as markets price modest odds of action while a Reuters poll shows roughly 70% of economists expecting a hold at that gathering.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$2,924,519Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings amid inflation running well above the 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.5-4.1% driven by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. Strong GDP growth, stable labor conditions with unemployment around 4.3%, and upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections in the June SEP have prompted three dissents favoring a July hike and shifted some analyst forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, paired with incoming August CPI and PCE data, represents the key near-term catalyst, as markets price modest odds of action while a Reuters poll shows roughly 70% of economists expecting a hold at that gathering.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,924,519Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings amid inflation running well above the 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.5-4.1% driven by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. Strong GDP growth, stable labor conditions with unemployment around 4.3%, and upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections in the June SEP have prompted three dissents favoring a July hike and shifted some analyst forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, paired with incoming August CPI and PCE data, represents the key near-term catalyst, as markets price modest odds of action while a Reuters poll shows roughly 70% of economists expecting a hold at that gathering.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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