Dario Amodei's 96.6% implied probability of avoiding arrest by year-end reflects the complete absence of criminal charges or investigations targeting the Anthropic CEO. Ongoing civil copyright suits from music publishers and authors over AI training data focus on alleged infringement rather than criminal conduct, with motions to dismiss scheduled for November. Pentagon disputes over model restrictions ended with a favorable court ruling against government retaliation. Traders recognize that personal liability in these IP cases rarely escalates to arrest absent fraud or willful criminal acts, and no regulatory or law enforcement actions point in that direction. A sudden shift would require new evidence of misconduct or an unexpected indictment, both viewed as highly improbable.