Mark Lamb secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s 5th Congressional District after winning the July 2026 primary with roughly 59 percent against self-funded challenger Daniel Keenan, despite ongoing allegations of sexual misconduct that he has denied. The open seat, previously held by retiring Rep. Andy Biggs, lies in a conservative East Valley district that favored Republican presidential candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Lamb’s Trump endorsement and law-enforcement background have reinforced trader expectations of a comfortable general-election victory over Democratic nominee Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who prevailed in her low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with the current 91.5 percent implied probability for Lamb. Late developments such as fresh verified allegations, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a significant national shift could still narrow the margin before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAZ-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
AZ-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$36,462 Объем
$36,462 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Марк Лэмб (Р)
92%
Элизабет Ли (Д)
9%
$36,462 Объем
$36,462 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Марк Лэмб (Р)
$20,864 Объем
92%
Элизабет Ли (Д)
$15,598 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Lamb secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s 5th Congressional District after winning the July 2026 primary with roughly 59 percent against self-funded challenger Daniel Keenan, despite ongoing allegations of sexual misconduct that he has denied. The open seat, previously held by retiring Rep. Andy Biggs, lies in a conservative East Valley district that favored Republican presidential candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Lamb’s Trump endorsement and law-enforcement background have reinforced trader expectations of a comfortable general-election victory over Democratic nominee Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who prevailed in her low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with the current 91.5 percent implied probability for Lamb. Late developments such as fresh verified allegations, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a significant national shift could still narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$36,462Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Lamb secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s 5th Congressional District after winning the July 2026 primary with roughly 59 percent against self-funded challenger Daniel Keenan, despite ongoing allegations of sexual misconduct that he has denied. The open seat, previously held by retiring Rep. Andy Biggs, lies in a conservative East Valley district that favored Republican presidential candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Lamb’s Trump endorsement and law-enforcement background have reinforced trader expectations of a comfortable general-election victory over Democratic nominee Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who prevailed in her low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with the current 91.5 percent implied probability for Lamb. Late developments such as fresh verified allegations, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a significant national shift could still narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$36,462Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Mark Lamb secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s 5th Congressional District after winning the July 2026 primary with roughly 59 percent against self-funded challenger Daniel Keenan, despite ongoing allegations of sexual misconduct that he has denied. The open seat, previously held by retiring Rep. Andy Biggs, lies in a conservative East Valley district that favored Republican presidential candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Lamb’s Trump endorsement and law-enforcement background have reinforced trader expectations of a comfortable general-election victory over Democratic nominee Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who prevailed in her low-turnout primary. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with the current 91.5 percent implied probability for Lamb. Late developments such as fresh verified allegations, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a significant national shift could still narrow the margin before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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