Sweden's September 16 expulsion of an Iranian embassy official—citing activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and linked to security threats against opposition figures, Jewish, and Israeli interests—has renewed focus on diplomatic expulsions involving Iran. Iran responded the next day with a reciprocal expulsion of a Swedish diplomat. These moves fit a pattern seen in prior cases, including Australia's 2025 removal of Iran's ambassador over alleged antisemitic attacks and U.S. actions against Iranian UN personnel. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral frictions driven by host-country concerns over interference, espionage, and influence operations, with potential for further actions by European states or others monitoring similar risks. No immediate scheduled events appear poised to trigger the next expulsion.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДругой посол Ирана, высланный...?
Другой посол Ирана, высланный...?
$32,381 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
19%
31 октября
28%
$32,381 Объем
30 сентября
$2,394 Объем
19%
31 октября
$1,670 Объем
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sweden's September 16 expulsion of an Iranian embassy official—citing activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and linked to security threats against opposition figures, Jewish, and Israeli interests—has renewed focus on diplomatic expulsions involving Iran. Iran responded the next day with a reciprocal expulsion of a Swedish diplomat. These moves fit a pattern seen in prior cases, including Australia's 2025 removal of Iran's ambassador over alleged antisemitic attacks and U.S. actions against Iranian UN personnel. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral frictions driven by host-country concerns over interference, espionage, and influence operations, with potential for further actions by European states or others monitoring similar risks. No immediate scheduled events appear poised to trigger the next expulsion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Объем
$32,381Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sweden's September 16 expulsion of an Iranian embassy official—citing activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and linked to security threats against opposition figures, Jewish, and Israeli interests—has renewed focus on diplomatic expulsions involving Iran. Iran responded the next day with a reciprocal expulsion of a Swedish diplomat. These moves fit a pattern seen in prior cases, including Australia's 2025 removal of Iran's ambassador over alleged antisemitic attacks and U.S. actions against Iranian UN personnel. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral frictions driven by host-country concerns over interference, espionage, and influence operations, with potential for further actions by European states or others monitoring similar risks. No immediate scheduled events appear poised to trigger the next expulsion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$32,381Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Sweden's September 16 expulsion of an Iranian embassy official—citing activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and linked to security threats against opposition figures, Jewish, and Israeli interests—has renewed focus on diplomatic expulsions involving Iran. Iran responded the next day with a reciprocal expulsion of a Swedish diplomat. These moves fit a pattern seen in prior cases, including Australia's 2025 removal of Iran's ambassador over alleged antisemitic attacks and U.S. actions against Iranian UN personnel. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral frictions driven by host-country concerns over interference, espionage, and influence operations, with potential for further actions by European states or others monitoring similar risks. No immediate scheduled events appear poised to trigger the next expulsion.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы