The requirement for an act of Congress to abolish the Department of Education, established by the 1979 Organization Act, drives the 96.1% implied probability on “No.” The Trump administration has used executive orders, staff reductions, budget proposals, and interagency transfers to shrink operations and reassign functions, yet full termination needs House and Senate passage plus reconciliation of a filibuster. Bipartisan Senate resistance, limited Republican margins, and competing priorities have produced no such legislation to date. Midterm outcomes, appropriations fights, or court rulings on transfers could still shift the timeline before 2027, though structural barriers and divided congressional incentives keep the probability of formal elimination low.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
4% chance
$12,313 Vol.
$12,313 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
$12,313 Vol.
$12,313 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The requirement for an act of Congress to abolish the Department of Education, established by the 1979 Organization Act, drives the 96.1% implied probability on “No.” The Trump administration has used executive orders, staff reductions, budget proposals, and interagency transfers to shrink operations and reassign functions, yet full termination needs House and Senate passage plus reconciliation of a filibuster. Bipartisan Senate resistance, limited Republican margins, and competing priorities have produced no such legislation to date. Midterm outcomes, appropriations fights, or court rulings on transfers could still shift the timeline before 2027, though structural barriers and divided congressional incentives keep the probability of formal elimination low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$12,313Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The requirement for an act of Congress to abolish the Department of Education, established by the 1979 Organization Act, drives the 96.1% implied probability on “No.” The Trump administration has used executive orders, staff reductions, budget proposals, and interagency transfers to shrink operations and reassign functions, yet full termination needs House and Senate passage plus reconciliation of a filibuster. Bipartisan Senate resistance, limited Republican margins, and competing priorities have produced no such legislation to date. Midterm outcomes, appropriations fights, or court rulings on transfers could still shift the timeline before 2027, though structural barriers and divided congressional incentives keep the probability of formal elimination low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$12,313Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The requirement for an act of Congress to abolish the Department of Education, established by the 1979 Organization Act, drives the 96.1% implied probability on “No.” The Trump administration has used executive orders, staff reductions, budget proposals, and interagency transfers to shrink operations and reassign functions, yet full termination needs House and Senate passage plus reconciliation of a filibuster. Bipartisan Senate resistance, limited Republican margins, and competing priorities have produced no such legislation to date. Midterm outcomes, appropriations fights, or court rulings on transfers could still shift the timeline before 2027, though structural barriers and divided congressional incentives keep the probability of formal elimination low.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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