Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218 seats to 214 for Democrats plus one independent who caucuses with the GOP, with two vacancies remaining as of early September 2026. Trader consensus at 98.8% against a pre-midterm flip reflects the short window until November 3, the limited number of special elections still pending, and the fact that those contests are concentrated in districts unlikely to produce the multiple net Democratic gains required to change control. Historical precedent also shows chamber majorities rarely switch outside a general election. Even so, a cluster of unexpected Republican vacancies in competitive districts followed by Democratic special-election victories could still alter the balance before voters go to the polls.