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icon for O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Nuclear

O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?

icon for O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Nuclear

O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?

jan 1, 2027

jan 1, 2027

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$458,536 Vol.

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$458,536 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s continued NPT membership despite recent IAEA Board of Governors referral to the UN Security Council on September 9, 2026, for safeguards non-compliance underpins trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. The referral follows unresolved verification gaps at sites damaged in 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes, including unaccounted 60%-enriched uranium stockpiles and restricted inspector access. Iranian officials have described withdrawal as a possible option requiring legal and strategic review but have not issued the required 90-day notice or advanced pending parliamentary bills from earlier in 2026. Limited IAEA cooperation persists under interim arrangements rather than formal exit, consistent with historical patterns where Tehran has used NPT leverage in negotiations without completing withdrawal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$458,536
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s continued NPT membership despite recent IAEA Board of Governors referral to the UN Security Council on September 9, 2026, for safeguards non-compliance underpins trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. The referral follows unresolved verification gaps at sites damaged in 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes, including unaccounted 60%-enriched uranium stockpiles and restricted inspector access. Iranian officials have described withdrawal as a possible option requiring legal and strategic review but have not issued the required 90-day notice or advanced pending parliamentary bills from earlier in 2026. Limited IAEA cooperation persists under interim arrangements rather than formal exit, consistent with historical patterns where Tehran has used NPT leverage in negotiations without completing withdrawal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$458,536
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O Irã irá se retirar do TNP antes de 2027?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" has generated $458.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" is "O Irã irá se retirar do TNP antes de 2027?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.