**Negotiations between the United States and Iran have stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which addressed the disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending but deferred limits on future enrichment to unresolved final-deal talks.** The 60-day negotiating window expired without agreement, with U.S. officials declaring the interim framework moot by July and Iran citing reciprocal suspensions amid disputes over inspections and sanctions relief. As of September 2026, Tehran has signaled interest in restoring the prior framework while reaffirming its right to enrichment for civilian nuclear needs, yet no public commitment has emerged to permanently end all uranium enrichment activities by year-end. Damaged enrichment sites from 2025 strikes remain offline, but Iran's retained technical capacity and insistence on nuclear rights under the NPT continue to limit prospects for a binding zero-enrichment pledge within the remaining timeline. Trader consensus at 87.5% against reflects these persistent diplomatic and technical barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro?
O Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro?
Sim
13% chance
$1,755,458 Vol.
$1,755,458 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
13% chance
$1,755,458 Vol.
$1,755,458 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Negotiations between the United States and Iran have stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which addressed the disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending but deferred limits on future enrichment to unresolved final-deal talks.** The 60-day negotiating window expired without agreement, with U.S. officials declaring the interim framework moot by July and Iran citing reciprocal suspensions amid disputes over inspections and sanctions relief. As of September 2026, Tehran has signaled interest in restoring the prior framework while reaffirming its right to enrichment for civilian nuclear needs, yet no public commitment has emerged to permanently end all uranium enrichment activities by year-end. Damaged enrichment sites from 2025 strikes remain offline, but Iran's retained technical capacity and insistence on nuclear rights under the NPT continue to limit prospects for a binding zero-enrichment pledge within the remaining timeline. Trader consensus at 87.5% against reflects these persistent diplomatic and technical barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,755,458Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Negotiations between the United States and Iran have stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which addressed the disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending but deferred limits on future enrichment to unresolved final-deal talks.** The 60-day negotiating window expired without agreement, with U.S. officials declaring the interim framework moot by July and Iran citing reciprocal suspensions amid disputes over inspections and sanctions relief. As of September 2026, Tehran has signaled interest in restoring the prior framework while reaffirming its right to enrichment for civilian nuclear needs, yet no public commitment has emerged to permanently end all uranium enrichment activities by year-end. Damaged enrichment sites from 2025 strikes remain offline, but Iran's retained technical capacity and insistence on nuclear rights under the NPT continue to limit prospects for a binding zero-enrichment pledge within the remaining timeline. Trader consensus at 87.5% against reflects these persistent diplomatic and technical barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,755,458Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Negotiations between the United States and Iran have stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which addressed the disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised down-blending but deferred limits on future enrichment to unresolved final-deal talks.** The 60-day negotiating window expired without agreement, with U.S. officials declaring the interim framework moot by July and Iran citing reciprocal suspensions amid disputes over inspections and sanctions relief. As of September 2026, Tehran has signaled interest in restoring the prior framework while reaffirming its right to enrichment for civilian nuclear needs, yet no public commitment has emerged to permanently end all uranium enrichment activities by year-end. Damaged enrichment sites from 2025 strikes remain offline, but Iran's retained technical capacity and insistence on nuclear rights under the NPT continue to limit prospects for a binding zero-enrichment pledge within the remaining timeline. Trader consensus at 87.5% against reflects these persistent diplomatic and technical barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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