Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the September 10 seizure of Mokha and Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb narrows, have heightened security risks and prompted carriers to limit or reroute transits. Observed daily vessel crossings have fallen to roughly 20–30 amid the July Saudi blockade and subsequent advances, well below pre-2024 baselines near 50–60, with tanker flows averaging around 24 per day in recent Kpler-tracked periods. This environment sustains elevated war-risk premiums and favors dark transits or Cape of Good Hope diversions, aligning with the 65% market-implied probability for under 170 weekly transits. Trader consensus reflects ongoing volatility from Houthi control of the southern Red Sea coastline, tempered by limited carrier restarts on select Asia-Europe services.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 14 de setembro?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 14 de setembro?
<170 57%
190-209 13%
210-229 7%
170-189 5%
$13,758 Vol.
$13,758 Vol.
20 set 2026
<170
57%
170-189
13%
190-209
13%
210-229
7%
230+
3%
<170 57%
190-209 13%
210-229 7%
170-189 5%
$13,758 Vol.
$13,758 Vol.
20 set 2026
<170
$5,461 Vol.
57%
170-189
$2,746 Vol.
13%
190-209
$2,706 Vol.
13%
210-229
$1,367 Vol.
7%
230+
$1,479 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the September 10 seizure of Mokha and Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb narrows, have heightened security risks and prompted carriers to limit or reroute transits. Observed daily vessel crossings have fallen to roughly 20–30 amid the July Saudi blockade and subsequent advances, well below pre-2024 baselines near 50–60, with tanker flows averaging around 24 per day in recent Kpler-tracked periods. This environment sustains elevated war-risk premiums and favors dark transits or Cape of Good Hope diversions, aligning with the 65% market-implied probability for under 170 weekly transits. Trader consensus reflects ongoing volatility from Houthi control of the southern Red Sea coastline, tempered by limited carrier restarts on select Asia-Europe services.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$13,758Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the September 10 seizure of Mokha and Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb narrows, have heightened security risks and prompted carriers to limit or reroute transits. Observed daily vessel crossings have fallen to roughly 20–30 amid the July Saudi blockade and subsequent advances, well below pre-2024 baselines near 50–60, with tanker flows averaging around 24 per day in recent Kpler-tracked periods. This environment sustains elevated war-risk premiums and favors dark transits or Cape of Good Hope diversions, aligning with the 65% market-implied probability for under 170 weekly transits. Trader consensus reflects ongoing volatility from Houthi control of the southern Red Sea coastline, tempered by limited carrier restarts on select Asia-Europe services.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$13,758Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the September 10 seizure of Mokha and Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb narrows, have heightened security risks and prompted carriers to limit or reroute transits. Observed daily vessel crossings have fallen to roughly 20–30 amid the July Saudi blockade and subsequent advances, well below pre-2024 baselines near 50–60, with tanker flows averaging around 24 per day in recent Kpler-tracked periods. This environment sustains elevated war-risk premiums and favors dark transits or Cape of Good Hope diversions, aligning with the 65% market-implied probability for under 170 weekly transits. Trader consensus reflects ongoing volatility from Houthi control of the southern Red Sea coastline, tempered by limited carrier restarts on select Asia-Europe services.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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