Recent diplomatic frictions, including the August 2026 U.S.-Brazil visa revocation dispute over ambassadorial approvals and election access, have been addressed through reciprocal personnel measures rather than host-country expulsions of U.S. envoys. Broader tensions with nations such as Iran, Iceland, and others have prompted summons or public criticism but stopped short of declaring U.S. ambassadors persona non grata. With only months remaining until year-end, the absence of acute bilateral crises or major escalations supports the prevailing trader view that foreign governments will continue favoring standard diplomatic tools over formal expulsions, consistent with their historical rarity outside severe breakdowns in relations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
13% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
13% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic frictions, including the August 2026 U.S.-Brazil visa revocation dispute over ambassadorial approvals and election access, have been addressed through reciprocal personnel measures rather than host-country expulsions of U.S. envoys. Broader tensions with nations such as Iran, Iceland, and others have prompted summons or public criticism but stopped short of declaring U.S. ambassadors persona non grata. With only months remaining until year-end, the absence of acute bilateral crises or major escalations supports the prevailing trader view that foreign governments will continue favoring standard diplomatic tools over formal expulsions, consistent with their historical rarity outside severe breakdowns in relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,023Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic frictions, including the August 2026 U.S.-Brazil visa revocation dispute over ambassadorial approvals and election access, have been addressed through reciprocal personnel measures rather than host-country expulsions of U.S. envoys. Broader tensions with nations such as Iran, Iceland, and others have prompted summons or public criticism but stopped short of declaring U.S. ambassadors persona non grata. With only months remaining until year-end, the absence of acute bilateral crises or major escalations supports the prevailing trader view that foreign governments will continue favoring standard diplomatic tools over formal expulsions, consistent with their historical rarity outside severe breakdowns in relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,023Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic frictions, including the August 2026 U.S.-Brazil visa revocation dispute over ambassadorial approvals and election access, have been addressed through reciprocal personnel measures rather than host-country expulsions of U.S. envoys. Broader tensions with nations such as Iran, Iceland, and others have prompted summons or public criticism but stopped short of declaring U.S. ambassadors persona non grata. With only months remaining until year-end, the absence of acute bilateral crises or major escalations supports the prevailing trader view that foreign governments will continue favoring standard diplomatic tools over formal expulsions, consistent with their historical rarity outside severe breakdowns in relations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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